Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 05-25-2007, 11:46 PM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
Guess I'll switch from premium to generic kat-food.

On a serious note, this is my top pick in another thread, and I have been averaging out. Seems everytime I sell some it goes up and screws up my asset allocation. I'd like to get down to about 10% and hold for the forseeable future.
OK that's novel ... someone who wants their investment to go down.

Kinda like the guy who p*ss*s and moans complains about paying too much in income taxes ( ... damn these gold bricks are so heavy, .... darn hundred dollar bills don't fit in my wallet, ... this 3 caret diamond is scratching the glass again ...)

No sympathies here Kumquat ... enjoy your kat chow...
__________________

__________________
megacorp-firee is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-26-2007, 07:24 AM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
saluki9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,032
The whole point of owning a "portfolio" of investments is so that I DON'T have to worry about any specific investment. That being said, if there was one I looked at in isolation it would probably be my emerging markets small cap (DEMSX)
__________________

__________________
saluki9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2007, 08:37 AM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by saluki9 View Post
The whole point of owning a "portfolio" of investments is so that I DON'T have to worry about any specific investment. That being said, if there was one I looked at in isolation it would probably be my emerging markets small cap (DEMSX)
Emerging Norwegian widow 15% - now that I'm past 62 and into the 14th yr. of ER: 85% Target Retirement IRA, a small non cola pension and early SS have retirement covered.

The widows and orphans old DRIP plans can continue to morph into party animals and individual stock(around 33 nowadays) speculations: exxon mobile, stonemore, chevron, aetna, borg warner, flowers foods, consolidated edison, bank of america, union pacific, verizon, AT&T, eagle bulk shipping, national fuel gas and other wild things.

So instead of the old 80/20 quote - I'm 85/15 or so and still haven't bought a kayak.

heh heh heh
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2007, 08:50 AM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,720
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Quote:
Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
Guess I'll switch from premium to generic kat-food.
Seems everytime I sell some it goes up and screws up my asset allocation. I'd like to get down to about 10% and hold for the forseeable future.
I am beginning to think that the only measure of a stock being an excessive asset is when its PE moves outside a range that is unlikely to correct with their next quarter results. We used to try to keep any single stock to $25k for diversification purposes. Now we monitor profit forecasts and market sentiment. For example, in our 2 largest holdings, one is going to suffer this quarter and rebound next quarter IMHO while the other one got hit this quarter and should rebound next quarter. We are trying to smooth this out with options rather than getting in and out.

BTW kumquat, please tell us the next time you reduce as it should be a good buying opportunity IIRC
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2007, 01:46 PM   #25
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 107
I have about 2% in options (this is likely to grow to 5 or 10%, but it is funds outside of my IRAs and 401Ks).

I have about 60% in international and sector mutual funds, which I consider medium risk.

The rest is CDs.

But I'm only 53, have a good pension and a working spouse !
__________________
theoldwizard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2007, 04:58 PM   #26
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,318
Lightspeed, the bigger question has to do with the actual venture you're being invited into -- how risky is it?
I happen to think investments in private companies are a great form of diversification and a great way to build wealth, but you have to understand and be able to manage the risks.

We made our ER 'wad' mostly through selling a company I founded. But I founded several and only two were reasonably successful, and one has made money. The rest were "tuition payments" for learning about private investing.

I think 5% -10% of an ER portfolio can be in private investments, (plus more in commercial real estate, hedge funds etc -- say 20% in risky or illiquid stuff overall). That to me feels like good diversification away form the simple traded stocks and bond securities.

But if you are younger, building up your savings (as opposed to taking out a safe withdrawal amount each year), and actively involved in something you know about, I think you could reasonably put more of your eggs in one basket.

Before investing, it is worth trying to speak to angel investors, people in the same industry, maybe some venture capitalists etc etc to try to make sure your investment passes some of the obvious due diligence screens. Local angel networks are all over -- ask local accountants or lawyers who work with this sort of company for leads to others who can help you start to fill in some of the gaps in your knowledge.
Good luck with it!
__________________
ESRBob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2007, 08:21 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,018
It's generally recommended that investors keep high risk / alternative investments to a maximum of 10% of the portfolio. These can include hedge funds, art, and venture capital, private equity or "angel" investments. Googling "angel investor" or "private equity" will generate plenty of information. While most sites are aimed at entrepreneurs, do check out the National Angel Organization and download the NAO-RBC Angel Primer (PDF file). Chapter 2 on Due Diligence is essential reading.

I have ~1% of my portfolio in VC, specifically, in a biotech startup whose business plan I am impressed with. (ALWAYS read the business plan!) I'm pleased to say that things are going well. I know my investment will be tied up for at least 5 years, until the company has an IPO or is bought out by Big Pharma. I would not make any such investment with nondiscretionary capital.
__________________
Meadbh is offline   Reply With Quote
Risk vs reward
Old 06-02-2007, 08:45 PM   #28
Recycles dryer sheets
two4theroad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Texas
Posts: 216
Risk vs reward

One must take risk to build great wealth and reduce risk greatly to keep it.
(or something like that)
DH and I took a risk investing in company stock for years when it was undervalued. By cost basis we have about 10% of our invested money in it. Due to greatly increased value it is now over 60%. We are getting out of it now but it is not something you can do overnight. When we were working it felt OK but now it feels chancy. We would like to get back down to 10% by next year.
2fer
__________________
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.<br />-Robert A. Heinlein
two4theroad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 11:26 AM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,720
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
The other reason to reduce your holding is likely that future growth is going to be much less than past growth. What about volatility?
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 01:09 PM   #30
Recycles dryer sheets
lightspeed's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 135
This investment I'm considering would be at most 2% of my net worth, and is a silent partner opportunity in a food start-up (as I understand, most of these fail), but it is founded by people with a proven successful track record in the same industry. Furthermore, I know and trust the founders, and have what I consider a great concept. The 4 founders have put in 250K of their own money, and are going to keep an 80% share of the company. They are selling 20% of the company in increments of $50K for 2% ownership. The investment is not likely to be liquidable until they get bought out, but the partnership agreement calls for paying the silent investors back their full investment before paying the founding partners. Do these sound like typical terms to any venture capitalists out there?
__________________
lightspeed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 02:36 PM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,720
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightspeed View Post
This investment I'm considering would be at most 2% of my net worth, and is a silent partner opportunity in a food start-up (as I understand, most of these fail), but it is founded by people with a proven successful track record in the same industry. Furthermore, I know and trust the founders, and have what I consider a great concept. The 4 founders have put in 250K of their own money, and are going to keep an 80% share of the company. They are selling 20% of the company in increments of $50K for 2% ownership. The investment is not likely to be liquidable until they get bought out, but the partnership agreement calls for paying the silent investors back their full investment before paying the founding partners. Do these sound like typical terms to any venture capitalists out there?
This makes the company worth $1 million for 100% (ignoring sweat equity). Unless they have proceeded to generate some further value, that makes $50k worth 5%. If all four are active in the company, then you need some control over salaries and perqs that could prevent any ability to pay back their investors. Finally, you need a timetable and an associated valuation formula so that if you get paid back in two years, you get e.g. $150k not just $50k. After 3 years, you get $200k etc.

Because you are taking a risk of 100% loss, you need to expect to get 10x your money back in 5 years.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 05:12 PM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightspeed View Post
This investment I'm considering would be at most 2% of my net worth, and is a silent partner opportunity in a food start-up (as I understand, most of these fail), but it is founded by people with a proven successful track record in the same industry. Furthermore, I know and trust the founders, and have what I consider a great concept. The 4 founders have put in 250K of their own money, and are going to keep an 80% share of the company. They are selling 20% of the company in increments of $50K for 2% ownership. The investment is not likely to be liquidable until they get bought out, but the partnership agreement calls for paying the silent investors back their full investment before paying the founding partners. Do these sound like typical terms to any venture capitalists out there?
In my Angel investment group we'd look at this company
as having a pre money valuation of 1.0 million and
a Post money valution of 1.5 million
with $100K getting you 4% of the company.

This doesn't seem unreasonable on the surface, but they are lots of caveats.
1. Is this just a concept or have they done a lot of work? In general you don't want to overpay for a ideas or concept
2. What will the involvement of the founders be. If they are going to work full-time a low salary this a much different deal than if they are going to hire a manager to run the operation.
3. What will their additional capital needs be and how do they intend to get them.
4. Finally you need to understand the exit strategy. If there only strategy is to be acquired. They need to provide you with as much financial details as possible of similar companies that have been acquired by Megacorps. I.e. what were there revenue, profits, locations before being a acquired.

The smartest guy in my Angel group, likes to be the last guy to invest in any round of funding not the first one. So if they have cashed 7-8 other guys $50K check then give them yours.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 05:33 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
To answer the initial question. I have 3% on a few Hawaii starts-up which will probably increase in 5% in the next year or so. It isn't as risky as sounds, because I get close to a 100% state tax credit (not deductions) on these investments. I also have 1% in microcap stocks, that I bought based a AAII stock screen (all the companies are selling below book value.)

Oh and I lost 2% investing in my friend software company... So I am going to draw the line at 10% of risky investments.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 09:03 PM   #34
Full time employment: Posting here.
Delawaredave5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan View Post
This makes the company worth $1 million for 100% (ignoring sweat equity). Unless they have proceeded to generate some further value, that makes $50k worth 5%.
If partners put in $1million for 80%, that values company at $1.25million.

$50K should be worth 4% (if my math is right...) - so you're paying 2x per share than partners are paying.

Regardless, I'm also looking at some "local private equity" deals also - would be a couple percent max of portfolio. Some are passive, some have some active participation.

What I am looking at: what is the maximum, out-of-pocket, after-tax hit that I would take if the investment became worthless.

If there's an investment credit involved (like clfp's) and/or ability to draw a partial salary as a 1099 employee -- these could substantially reduce your "total tank" maximum loss - possibly below $20K on a $50K investment - in which case the upside potential might be worth it.
__________________
Delawaredave5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 09:43 PM   #35
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 249
30% of your worth in a single stock? Sounds a bit concentrated to me. I guess there are special cases: a couple shares of BRK? Wal-Mart (if you were one of the early shareholders? -- Your last name is "Walton"...) Seems quite dodgy to me...look up "Enron" in your history lesson book if you would like to know why....
__________________
I've got nothing against an honest day's work, provided that someone else does it.
pedorrero is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2007, 09:49 PM   #36
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,318
One metric that has been used over and over, at least in tech startups that don't have profits, is to value the company at 2 times sales. This may seem harsh to the earliest stage companies, but then again, if they are looking for outside money at those early stages, they deserve to pay dearly for it, as the risk is extreme.

So if the startup has 500k of revenue right now, they'd be worth 1 million pre-money. Otherwise, it sounds to me like you're overpaying.

Also, if the founders are putting in their 250k now at the same time as you are putting in your money, then the valuation should be the same. If their 250k went in a year or so ago, then you get to decide whether the company has quadrupled in value since.

Think a lot about how you're going to get your money out of the startup. It's like marriage -- easy to get in, hard to get out. Or as the English say, "Decide in haste, repent at your leisure". Little illiquid companies need a clear exit strategy for investors.

If the founders have done all this successfully before, that can be a big help, but every company is different so make sure they can be successful again.
__________________

__________________
ESRBob is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Definitions of portfolio on the Web: My Dream Other topics 3 10-20-2006 01:33 PM
spending portfolio - selling versus dividends JohnEyles FIRE and Money 12 10-10-2006 10:33 AM
Using Logic To Examine Risk mickeyd FIRE and Money 0 09-16-2006 02:24 PM
wisconsin's high risk health ins. pool maddythebeagle FIRE and Money 2 03-07-2006 10:08 AM
Analyzing the mortgage payoff option sgeeeee FIRE and Money 43 06-22-2005 10:29 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:02 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.