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Old 10-21-2010, 06:11 PM   #21
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Well, the market has 1 more day and 1 week to blow up. My understanding is that the Hindenburg Omen expires before the end of October.

OK - there, I jinxed it. It will probably blow up tomorrow.

Audrey
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:43 PM   #22
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I always thought that the Hindenburg Omen was a Robert Ludlum book.
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:47 PM   #23
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Then, in the article it says: The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987, meaning it's far from infallible but isn't inconsequential either.

I read this and think, oh, Hindenburg Omen, wrong 75% of the time. Nothing to see here, move along people. Now I know our media peeps got to sell ads and all, but if you are going to scare folks, wouldn't you go with something with a slightly better than .250 batting average?
I prefer the Lincoln Buy / Wheat Back Sell signal. Back testing has shown Lincoln Buy to be at least marginally more reliable than Wheat Back Sell, increasingly so as the duration of the prediction period increases. Some of you might recognize this as an update to the previously long-standing Standing Liberty Buy / American Eagle Dump hypothesis.
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Old 10-21-2010, 10:29 PM   #24
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Well, the market has 1 more day and 1 week to blow up. My understanding is that the Hindenburg Omen expires before the end of October.

OK - there, I jinxed it. It will probably blow up tomorrow.

Audrey
Are these the things you are watching?
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File Type: jpg KissOfDeath.jpg (314.4 KB, 22 views)
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:56 AM   #25
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Are these the things you are watching?
Yes, isn't it cool?
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Old 10-22-2010, 08:42 AM   #26
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I've been carefully studying the chart patterns...
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:46 PM   #27
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Are these the things you are watching?
Dex - that cross you labeled as "Kiss of Death" is actually the "Golden Cross" - supposedly a very positive market indicator - the exact opposite of the "Death Cross" that freaked everyone out in early July.

But of course, you knew that already!

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Old 10-22-2010, 12:47 PM   #28
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Supposedly, Oct 26 is that last day of the Hindenburg Omen period.

There - that probably jinxed everything again.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:53 PM   #29
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Dex - that cross you labeled as "Kiss of Death" is actually the "Golden Cross" - supposedly a very positive market indicator - the exact opposite of the "Death Cross" that freaked everyone out in early July.

But of course, you knew that already!

Audrey
Only if the 50 day MA moves above the 200 day MA. If the 50 hits the 200 and turns down; then it is the "Kiss of Death".
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Old 10-22-2010, 05:04 PM   #30
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Only if the 50 day MA moves above the 200 day MA. If the 50 hits the 200 and turns down; then it is the "Kiss of Death".
Dex, are you intentionally entertaining us?
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Old 10-22-2010, 06:05 PM   #31
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Only if the 50 day MA moves above the 200 day MA. If the 50 hits the 200 and turns down; then it is the "Kiss of Death".
It done crossed dude!

And (almost) everyone already knew it was going to cross, because the points leaving the average are much lower than the points coming into the average. We have been well above the 200 dma for quite a while now, bringing the 50 dma up every day. We would have had to have a huge sell off to well under the 200dma and stay there quite a while back to NOT get a golden cross.

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Old 10-22-2010, 06:06 PM   #32
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Dex, are you intentionally entertaining us?
Of course he is.
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Old 10-28-2010, 08:18 AM   #33
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i've been carefully studying the chart patterns...
rotflmao!
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Old 10-28-2010, 08:22 AM   #34
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There is a much higher than normal probability of something happening sometime over the next four months
I agree completely.
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Old 10-28-2010, 08:42 AM   #35
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I read this and think, oh, Hindenburg Omen, wrong 75% of the time.
Seems like a great contra-indicator. Very useful. The traders I used to work with would kill for an analyst who was reliably wrong 75% of the time.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:18 PM   #36
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The Boglehead Forum has a thread discussing that the Hindenburg Omen creator/discoverer is now bullish.
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Old 10-28-2010, 04:12 PM   #37
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The Boglehead Forum has a thread discussing that the Hindenburg Omen creator/discoverer is now bullish.
Thanks for the link. That was very interesting.
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