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Hindenburg
Old 08-26-2010, 09:57 AM   #1
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Hindenburg

I know there has been a lot of press for this "Hindenburg Omen" but this headline and subsequent verbiage caught my eye.

Here is the headline:

The Hindenburg Omen IS Scary, but So Are the Fundamentals

Then, in the article it says: The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987, meaning it's far from infallible but isn't inconsequential either.

I read this and think, oh, Hindenburg Omen, wrong 75% of the time. Nothing to see here, move along people. Now I know our media peeps got to sell ads and all, but if you are going to scare folks, wouldn't you go with something with a slightly better than .250 batting average?
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Old 08-26-2010, 10:20 AM   #2
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I read about it, not worth it.
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Old 08-26-2010, 10:21 AM   #3
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Sounds like a bunch of gas.
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Old 08-26-2010, 10:22 AM   #4
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This is one thread that's destined to flame out.
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Old 08-26-2010, 10:54 AM   #5
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Given the number of inputs his formula had, it should have been 100% in back testing.
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Old 08-26-2010, 11:32 AM   #6
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Lots of people talkin', few of them know.


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Old 08-26-2010, 11:33 AM   #7
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Two takes on this garbage:
1) Jim Cramer
2): (Guess, at 2:38, it's too technical for us pleblians to understand, or for Beck?)
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This Isn't some Swammi's Prediction, It's just a Stock Market Technical Indicator
Old 08-26-2010, 12:11 PM   #8
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This Isn't some Swammi's Prediction, It's just a Stock Market Technical Indicator

I hadn't heard of this one (The Hindenberg Omen) before, so I looked it up on Wikipedia. It's one of those market health indicators.

Quote:
The Omen is largely based on Norman G. Fosback's High Low Logic Index (HLLI).[1] The value of the HLLI is the lesser of the NYSE new highs or new lows divided by the number of NYSE issues traded, smoothed by an appropriate exponential moving average. The Omen itself is said to have originated with Jim Miekka[2], and the name was suggested by the late Kennedy Gammage.
What it hopes to capture is a percentage of the market making new (52 week) lows. When that or a smoothed version falls below a certain threshold then the Hindenberg trigger is set, meaning that the bottom is about to fall out of the market.

For more indices (and for fun too) check out this website:

MarketGauge by DataView, LLC

click on the chart for any index to see the deatils. Also notice the many mixed signals that the market gives off.
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Old 08-26-2010, 12:24 PM   #9
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People think the world will end in 2012, too. Oh, the huge manatee!
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Old 08-26-2010, 12:35 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Birdie Num Nums View Post
Two takes on this garbage:
1) Jim Cramer
2): (Guess, at 2:38, it's too technical for us pleblians to understand, or for Beck?)

Wowee. Cramer AND Glen Beck AND Faux News. Perfect storm. If only there was someone shilling gold....
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Old 08-26-2010, 01:01 PM   #11
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Lots of people talkin', few of them know.


+1
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Old 10-21-2010, 11:44 AM   #12
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Wasn't today, Oct. 21, supposed to be "the day"?
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Old 10-21-2010, 11:47 AM   #13
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watch out below !

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Old 10-21-2010, 12:11 PM   #14
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The Hidenburg Omen has been confirmed, for the third time, today August 22, 2010. Based on the history of the Omen, there is a 30% probability that a massive crash of the stock market will occur within the next 120 days. This technical indicator taken alone is frightening. But when considered along with the web bot predictions of an "epic event" occurring in November, and the sobering predictions of Pastor Lindsey Williams, the ramifications are extremely dire indeed. May God have mercy and shelter us from what is to come.
RED ALERT. Hindenburg Omen Confirmed: Stock Market Collapse May Be Imminent.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/179...gust-20th-2010
There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock
market crash starting sometime over the next four months


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Old 10-21-2010, 12:18 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
The Hidenburg Omen has been confirmed, for the third time, today August 22, 2010. Based on the history of the Omen, there is a 30% probability that a massive crash of the stock market will occur within the next 120 days. This technical indicator taken alone is frightening. But when considered along with the web bot predictions of an "epic event" occurring in November, and the sobering predictions of Pastor Lindsey Williams, the ramifications are extremely dire indeed. May God have mercy and shelter us from what is to come.
RED ALERT. Hindenburg Omen Confirmed: Stock Market Collapse May Be Imminent.

We Get An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen On August 20th, 2010 | Robert McHugh | Safehaven.com
There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months
I could maybe brush off the Hindenburg, but when I heard Pastor Lindsey Williams was warning, baby I was outta there!

Ha
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Old 10-21-2010, 12:36 PM   #16
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Of the last half-dozen or so Hindenberg crashes, if you had cash on the side, and bought equities soon after crash and held on for at least a year or two afterward, wouldn't you have done well? This was true of the Sept 2008-March 2009 crash, and the Oct. 1987 crash. These crashes haven't lasted years, have they? Has anyone done the research?
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Old 10-21-2010, 12:40 PM   #17
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I could see the Hindenburd Omen being vindicated if the Mortgage fortclosure mess doesn't get resolved. If the mortgage mess severly slows a recovery then I could see stocks falling big time.

It would be a coincidence though as all of the Hindenberg Omen stats didn't include that mortgage foreclosure mess information.
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Old 10-21-2010, 12:50 PM   #18
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Quite interesting. The above link takes you to a site that sells gold and silver
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:00 PM   #19
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People think the world will end in 2012, too. Oh, the huge manatee!
Good one Nick!
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:57 PM   #20
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Dex, maybe you'll have a chance to get back into the market again real cheap.
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