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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 04:50 PM   #21
 
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute 'n' Fuzzy Bunny
Volatility...lots of people buying and selling accompanied by swings in bid/ask spreads.

Now...does the low volatility make the price go up or does the price going up create low volatility? And does it do it all the time, most of the time, some of the time? Does the volatility make the price go up sometimes and the price make the volatility go up other times?

It'll make ya nutty.
Yeah, I know what Volitility means TH. I don't spend all of my time Fly Fishing. 8)

- My question was about the graph specifically. What does it represent? What do they measure. I assume it's an index of something?
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 04:51 PM   #22
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Just seeing if you're paying attention...
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 05:13 PM   #23
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

From the period represented by this chart, it appears that volatility reaches high levels as important lows in the equity average shown are made.

You must be asking something else, but this is all I see.

Ha
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 05:16 PM   #24
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

CT: low volatiity=no fear Too some a contrarian indicator. To some (paranoid) bears it means someone (the gov't?) is holding things up. Maybe the gov't increased M3 alot recently? Naaaaaa

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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 05:18 PM   #25
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

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Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
CT: low volatiity=no fear Too some a contrarian indicator. To some (paranoid) bears it means someone (the gov't?) is holding things up. Maybe the gov't increased M3 alot recently? Naaaaaa

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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 06:40 PM   #26
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

I think the graph needs some red lines and maybe some green ones. More circles and arrows would also make it clearly meaningless bullshit more useful.

Actually, if you print out the graph, place it on a table and throw chicken bones on it, it will make a greasy mess of your table.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 07:36 PM   #27
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

and a disclaimer. A big one.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 08:36 PM   #28
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

CT
Definitions of VIX
* An index of implied volatility based on the CBOE's OEX options. The exchange calculates the implied volatility of eight at-the-money or near-the-money strikes (both puts and calls) with a weighted average time to maturity of 30 days. Volatility: A statistical measure of the movement of a security over a specified time. Stocks with larger daily percentage movements have larger volatility.

The more general interpertation of the VIX is fear and complacency.
High reading = high fear
Low reading = complaceny or lack of fear

On the chart I sent you there really should be two horizontal lines on the VIX
1 at about 35 - 40 for high
1 at about 15- 20 for low

If the VIX is above 40 there is a lot of fear in the market, so it could be a bottom
If the VIX is below about 20 there isn't a lot of fear, so it could be a top

The spikes on the left side of the chart can be looked at short term bottoms.

Does this help?

The VIX is one indicator of many.
If you are interested in the technical analysis of the stock market take a look at MetaStock or one of John Murphy's books.

How did you post the chart?
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