Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 05:13 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Historically Low DOW Volatility

Don't know what this might mean, but it is pretty well off the chart. "It has been 1104 days without a 10% correction in the Dow, roughly 150 days beyond the prior record examining data back to 1896."

This from a newsletter writer.

Maybe we have found the promised land. (Then again, maybe not.* )

Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 05:16 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Maybe because just prior to that, it was so in the hole that gradually up is the only direction available...

Crap, that klaxon is getting louder...
__________________

__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 05:25 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Being that I would like to put some cash into a few stocks, I wouldn't mind some volatility across the market. Think about the last time you turned it on CNBC and found "curbs in" at the top of the screen.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 05:28 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Maybe everyone has discovered the bliss of index funds. Thats it. No more volatility...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 05:47 PM   #5
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

I'm guessing that there are a lot of factors at work here.

1.) 401K plans that are invested in Mutual Funds.

2.) Speed of information via the internet

3.) Low inflation

4.) No Euphoria in the market since 1999

5.) Low interest rates

__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 05:57 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Maybe everyone has discovered the bliss of index funds. Thats it. No more volatility...
Just takes something bad to happen and everyone will run for the exits.

Quote:
I'm guessing that there are a lot of factors at work here.

A couple of major ones are:

1.) 401K plans that are invested in Mutual Funds.

2.) Speed of information via the internet
I can't put my finger on one thing but doesn't it seem like those were factors when we did experience some volatility - several years ago?
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 06:49 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Don't know what this might mean, but it is pretty well off the chart. "It has been 1104 days without a 10% correction in the Dow, roughly 150 days beyond the prior record examining data back to 1896."

This from a newsletter writer.

Maybe we have found the promised land. (Then again, maybe not. )

Ha
A low VIX is considered a contrary indicator. Put a chart of the VIX and of the S&P on the same page. Low VIX readings tend to correlate with highs in the S&P.

Pick up a copy of IBD weekend edition. You will also see that a high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters is also considere a contrary indicator.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 07:22 PM   #8
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
A low VIX is considered a contrary indicator. Put a chart of the VIX and of the S&P on the same page. Low VIX readings tend to correlate with highs in the S&P.
I did. I didn't come to that conclusion. I only had about 10 years of history though. It looked the opposite to me. Post your graph that you are looking at!

The hyped newsletters - Well, I don't even have to look at that!
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 08:41 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat

The hyped newsletters - Well, I don't even have to look at that!
I am not sure I understand that statement. Isn't “hype” a slang derivative of hyperbole? As in extreme or unfounded statement, over the top advertising, etc.? To me what the poster did was mention a source of information; hardly hype.

I thought the purpose of this board, among other things, was to share information.
I am thankful to learn that the weekend edition of IBD has this data, as I have not looked at that paper in years. I plan to buy this weekend’s edition

Those who are not interested can as always ignore the information cited.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 08:53 PM   #10
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
You will also see that a high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters is also considere a contrary indicator.
This statement is what I was referring to. And I was agreeing that high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters are contrary indicators.
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 08:59 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

My guess for the low volatility - the absence of new and unexpected bad news
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 09:14 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Ah-OOO-GAH...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 09:17 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
This statement is what I was referring to. And I was agreeing that high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters are contrary indicators.
Sorry, CT, I misunderstood. And unfortuntely, I went a bit over the top myself.

Mikey
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 09:34 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

You're kinda nutty lately mike

Anyone else notice the huge rash of ER's named "Mike", by the way?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-21-2006, 09:53 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Ah-OOO-GAH...
Is that Gabe typing?
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 09:05 AM   #16
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,619
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat
Is that Gabe typing?
Inside joke.

TH mentioned that the warning klaxons get louder with each bullish post. I pointed out that submarines traditionally use a klaxon to sound the diving alarm... it makes the ah-oo-gah sound. Ah-oo-gah-- and the market takes a dive. Get it? OK, maybe it's just nuclear engineering humor.

BTW that seven letters fits nicely on a vanity license plate. There's at least one idiot proud submariner sporting that in every state. Please don't key their car just because of their license plates...
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 11:33 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat
Is that Gabe typing?
No, Gabe would have written "Ah-OOO-GAH-GAH".

__________________
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 11:37 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Nope. The word of the week is "DUCKHHHH". Either its hebrew or klingon. For a long time it was "ATTTAAAAA". It appears that DUCKHHHHHH is the new ATTTAAAAAA, which is now old and busted.

we're also good for a 5 minute long "DADADADADADAADADADADADA" in restaurants and in stores, at a pitch that I know for a fact that I cannot hit.

His favorite thing to do is 'type' on the computer though...so if any of my posts start making sense, its him. Or Ted.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 03:49 PM   #19
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Dex e-mailed me his graph of the S&P 500 and a Volitility graph. This one also only has about 5-6 years of history. That is way too short to see any kind of trend in my humble opinion. Also I['m not sure what the volitility graph measures. Could one of you geniuses explain it to me.

Usually large corrections are followed by a period of Eurphoria (In the U.S for the last 100 years or so.) - No one talks Stocks in my Fly Shop anymore like they did in 1999. Or any Investments (other than Real Estate) - REITS are off to another mind blowing start for 2006 - Are you listening Jarhead?

[img width=750 height=490]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v230/Cutthroat-trout/Misc%20Pics/VIXGraph.jpg[/img]
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Old 03-22-2006, 04:29 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility

Volatility...lots of people buying and selling accompanied by swings in bid/ask spreads.

Now...does the low volatility make the price go up or does the price going up create low volatility? And does it do it all the time, most of the time, some of the time? Does the volatility make the price go up sometimes and the price make the volatility go up other times?

It'll make ya nutty.
__________________

__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How low can you (the Dow) go, and when is the time to buy? AirJordan Young Dreamers 39 03-05-2007 10:36 PM
Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility Bailing-Bob FIRE and Money 47 01-15-2007 08:10 PM
The Upside to Low Savings Rate? REWahoo FIRE and Money 0 03-29-2006 10:08 PM
Low Interest Rates Here To Stay? Donner FIRE and Money 23 02-13-2005 03:02 PM
Low cost retirement living Skylark Life after FIRE 7 09-11-2004 04:26 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:50 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.