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Historically Low DOW Volatility
03-21-2006, 04:13 PM
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#1
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Historically Low DOW Volatility
Don't know what this might mean, but it is pretty well off the chart. "It has been 1104 days without a 10% correction in the Dow, roughly 150 days beyond the prior record examining data back to 1896."
This from a newsletter writer.
Maybe we have found the promised land. (Then again, maybe not.*  )
Ha
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 04:16 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Maybe because just prior to that, it was so in the hole that gradually up is the only direction available... 
Crap, that klaxon is getting louder...
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 04:25 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Being that I would like to put some cash into a few stocks, I wouldn't mind some volatility across the market. Think about the last time you turned it on CNBC and found "curbs in" at the top of the screen.
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"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 04:28 PM
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#4
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Maybe everyone has discovered the bliss of index funds. Thats it. No more volatility...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 04:47 PM
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#5
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
I'm guessing that there are a lot of factors at work here.
1.) 401K plans that are invested in Mutual Funds.
2.) Speed of information via the internet
3.) Low inflation
4.) No Euphoria in the market since 1999
5.) Low interest rates
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 04:57 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
 Quote:
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Maybe everyone has discovered the bliss of index funds. Thats it. No more volatility...
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Just takes something bad to happen and everyone will run for the exits.
Quote:
I'm guessing that there are a lot of factors at work here.
A couple of major ones are:
1.) 401K plans that are invested in Mutual Funds.
2.) Speed of information via the internet
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I can't put my finger on one thing but doesn't it seem like those were factors when we did experience some volatility - several years ago?
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"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 05:49 PM
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#7
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HaHa
Don't know what this might mean, but it is pretty well off the chart. "It has been 1104 days without a 10% correction in the Dow, roughly 150 days beyond the prior record examining data back to 1896."
This from a newsletter writer.
Maybe we have found the promised land. (Then again, maybe not. )
Ha |
A low VIX is considered a contrary indicator. Put a chart of the VIX and of the S&P on the same page. Low VIX readings tend to correlate with highs in the S&P.
Pick up a copy of IBD weekend edition. You will also see that a high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters is also considere a contrary indicator.
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Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 06:22 PM
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#8
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Quote:
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A low VIX is considered a contrary indicator. Put a chart of the VIX and of the S&P on the same page. Low VIX readings tend to correlate with highs in the S&P.
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I did. I didn't come to that conclusion. I only had about 10 years of history though. It looked the opposite to me. Post your graph that you are looking at!
The hyped newsletters - Well, I don't even have to look at that!
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 07:41 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
The hyped newsletters - Well, I don't even have to look at that!
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I am not sure I understand that statement. Isn't “hype” a slang derivative of hyperbole? As in extreme or unfounded statement, over the top advertising, etc.? To me what the poster did was mention a source of information; hardly hype.
I thought the purpose of this board, among other things, was to share information.
I am thankful to learn that the weekend edition of IBD has this data, as I have not looked at that paper in years. I plan to buy this weekend’s edition
Those who are not interested can as always ignore the information cited.
Ha
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 07:53 PM
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#10
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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You will also see that a high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters is also considere a contrary indicator.
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This statement is what I was referring to. And I was agreeing that high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters are contrary indicators.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 07:59 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
My guess for the low volatility - the absence of new and unexpected bad news
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 08:14 PM
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#12
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Ah-OOO-GAH...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 08:17 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
This statement is what I was referring to. And I was agreeing that high bullishness in stock advisor newsletters are contrary indicators.
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Sorry, CT, I misunderstood. And unfortuntely, I went a bit over the top myself.
Mikey
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 08:34 PM
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#14
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
You're kinda nutty lately mike
Anyone else notice the huge rash of ER's named "Mike", by the way? 
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-21-2006, 08:53 PM
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#15
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Quote:
Is that Gabe typing?
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"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-22-2006, 08:05 AM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wildcat
Is that Gabe typing?
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Inside joke.
TH mentioned that the warning klaxons get louder with each bullish post. I pointed out that submarines traditionally use a klaxon to sound the diving alarm... it makes the ah-oo-gah sound. Ah-oo-gah-- and the market takes a dive. Get it? OK, maybe it's just nuclear engineering humor.
BTW that seven letters fits nicely on a vanity license plate. There's at least one idiot proud submariner sporting that in every state. Please don't key their car just because of their license plates...
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-22-2006, 10:33 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wildcat
Is that Gabe typing?
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No, Gabe would have written "Ah-OOO-GAH-GAH".
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-22-2006, 10:37 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Nope. The word of the week is "DUCKHHHH". Either its hebrew or klingon. For a long time it was "ATTTAAAAA". It appears that DUCKHHHHHH is the new ATTTAAAAAA, which is now old and busted.
we're also good for a 5 minute long "DADADADADADAADADADADADA" in restaurants and in stores, at a pitch that I know for a fact that I cannot hit.
His favorite thing to do is 'type' on the computer though...so if any of my posts start making sense, its him. Or Ted.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-22-2006, 02:49 PM
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#19
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Dex e-mailed me his graph of the S&P 500 and a Volitility graph. This one also only has about 5-6 years of history. That is way too short to see any kind of trend in my humble opinion. Also I['m not sure what the volitility graph measures. Could one of you geniuses explain it to me. 
Usually large corrections are followed by a period of Eurphoria (In the U.S for the last 100 years or so.) - No one talks Stocks in my Fly Shop anymore like they did in 1999. Or any Investments (other than Real Estate) - REITS are off to another mind blowing start for 2006 - Are you listening Jarhead?
[img width=750 height=490]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v230/Cutthroat-trout/Misc%20Pics/VIXGraph.jpg[/img]
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
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03-22-2006, 03:29 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Re: Historically Low DOW Volatility
Volatility...lots of people buying and selling accompanied by swings in bid/ask spreads.
Now...does the low volatility make the price go up or does the price going up create low volatility? And does it do it all the time, most of the time, some of the time? Does the volatility make the price go up sometimes and the price make the volatility go up other times?
It'll make ya nutty.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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