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Old 11-21-2008, 07:14 PM   #81
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The peak rate of 24% wasn't until 1933, four years after the stock market crashed. I don't believe it's valid to try and make side by side comparisons of then and now, but it takes time for these things to ripple out. We have no idea how bad it might be.
My, aren't you Little Mr. Sunshine today!

It's TGIF time (I vaguely remember that being a good thing), lighten up.
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:19 PM   #82
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Sorry! My problem is not depression but rather a morbid fascination with it all. I'm not trying to be a doomsayer, I'm just fascinated with the numbers. The luxury of not having to live on my portfolio and it just being a line on a graph.

I think in 4 pillars or some book it talks about this being the best case scenario for young dreamers. I wish I had more than $1,300 a month to throw into the markets, I hear this clock ticking in my head that the sale is almost over.
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:21 PM   #83
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Not to be a total downer, but unemployment was less than 5% in 1929, and about 8% in 1930. The peak rate of 24% wasn't until 1933, four years after the stock market crashed. I don't believe it's valid to try and make side by side comparisons of then and now, but it takes time for these things to ripple out. We have no idea how bad it might be. Hopefully it won't be too harsh but it's a little early to be calling this ballgame.
Good point. If auto's fail, more banks, etc etc.... we will be well on our way. Still hard to imagine getting to 20 plus %, but I never thought things would tank this bad either.
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:22 PM   #84
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FWIW I saw an interview with a Nobel prize winning economist who had lived through the Great Depression himself. He was a very thoughtful guy.
that "interview" with Robert Solow - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, assuming i have your reference correct, was more of a soundbite than anything else. with all due respect, he never "said that any references to the Great Depression were complete nonsense". here's what he said:

Worsening Economic Crisis Stops Short of Depression | Online NewsHour | November 20, 2008 | PBS

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No, no, I don't think we're going into a depression like the 1930s.

Look, to put it quantitatively, when I was a boy in the Great Depression, the unemployment rate in the U.S. reached something between 25 percent and 30 percent. That's an enormous number.

We're talking now -- I, for instance, am horrified at the thought that the unemployment rate might go to 8 percent. But 30 percent? No, we're nothing like that, I think, is going to -- is going to happen. We know -- we know more about what to do. And piece by piece, we're doing it.
(note that michigan and rhode island are already up to 9.5% each. and i doubt they tally'm up quite like they used to in the good ol' days.)

but he had already stated:

Quote:
...it depends what the meaning of "bad" is here. As a financial crisis, it has got to be quite bad. Oh, it probably verges on the very bad.
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:23 PM   #85
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... I hear this clock ticking in my head that the sale is almost over.
Now it's my turn to say, "Take heart. We have no idea how long it will last or how bad it will be."
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:26 PM   #86
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Oldbabe,
I really do understand how you are feeling. It is terrifying for many of us right now; there is nothing worse than feeling like you have lost control of your life. Perhaps going back to work PT would provide a diversion from all the doom and gloom and give you a sense of taking back some control over your circumstances. I wish you well. Nobody knows when we will pull out of this spiral, but you can be assured there are plenty of us out here hoping against hope it will be within the next three to five years. (retail stores in my area are seeking PT employees for the holiday season, I realize this won't help financially speaking, but it could boost your spirits right now by getting you out and about)
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Old 11-21-2008, 08:40 PM   #87
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Oldbabe,
I really do understand how you are feeling. It is terrifying for many of us right now; there is nothing worse than feeling like you have lost control of your life. Perhaps going back to work PT would provide a diversion from all the doom and gloom and give you a sense of taking back some control over your circumstances. I wish you well. Nobody knows when we will pull out of this spiral, but you can be assured there are plenty of us out here hoping against hope it will be within the next three to five years. (retail stores in my area are seeking PT employees for the holiday season, I realize this won't help financially speaking, but it could boost your spirits right now by getting you out and about)
Thanks for the kind words. I hope that you are not suffering too much in this downturn. I already work part-time (very) in my profession but am attempting to get more work assignments.

What really pains me is seeing how this downturn is affecting some of my family members, and friends too. There is severe pain and devastation out there already. I shudder to envision what might happen in the near future if this monster doesn't stop gobbling up our economy.
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Old 11-21-2008, 09:45 PM   #88
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Here in CA unemployment is up to 8.2%. We'll know how bad this is in a year.
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:21 AM   #89
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My biggest worry is that my siblings will lose their jobs.
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:39 AM   #90
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My biggest worry is that my siblings will lose their jobs.
Absolutely.

There are many more job losses I think as the effects ripple through the supply chain. Chemical giant BASF recently announced the closure or idling of 80 production units. My own chemical megacorp has severely reduced its capital spending and orders are well down.
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:41 AM   #91
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I agree with Martha, too. Happen to know some 20-somethings who are out of work, but that doesn't worry me as much as the possibility of layoffs of more seasoned workers.
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:51 AM   #92
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I worry about family members losing jobs as well.


We have already been touched by it.

BIL lost his earlier this year. My other BIL narrowly missed it... his company cut back.
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Old 11-22-2008, 09:36 PM   #93
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I agree. DD is just getting started in life, really on the low end of things. I'm very proud of the way she is stepping up and dealing with adversity, and don't want anything to happen to flatten her now that she is moving forward. A job loss would be a tough thing to bear.
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:01 PM   #94
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Ditto all these comments, once you add the human face the statistics melt away to what really matters. My side of the family is either relatively safe with good pensions or younger than me with time on their side. DW's side is a totally different story. Already one cousin and her daughter moved in with an aunt because she could meet the bills anymore.
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Old 11-23-2008, 08:08 AM   #95
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Well, it finally hit. We had a family get together yesterday and my sister in law announced she had lost her job. She just went back to work a couple of months ago - to help pay the outrageously high and abusive college bill. The company - 100 years operating in specialized publishing - just shut down. Two days advance notice and hundreds of people out of work.

I wonder how the universities are going to justify their tuition increases now.

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Old 11-23-2008, 01:54 PM   #96
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Well, it finally hit. We had a family get together yesterday and my sister in law announced she had lost her job. She just went back to work a couple of months ago - to help pay the outrageously high and abusive college bill. The company - 100 years operating in specialized publishing - just shut down. Two days advance notice and hundreds of people out of work.

I wonder how the universities are going to justify their tuition increases now.

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It's not just the tuition that needs to be justified.

Tuition Increases Pad College Presidents' Salaries | NBC Washington
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Old 11-23-2008, 02:10 PM   #97
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It's not just the tuition that needs to be justified.

Tuition Increases Pad College Presidents' Salaries | NBC Washington
I think college cost have gone up faster than health care costs.

Colleges won't be addressed by the government - teacher unions influence and liberal bias. Health care is an easy target - big, bad corporations.
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Old 11-23-2008, 03:56 PM   #98
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....

I wonder how the universities are going to justify their tuition increases now.
....
Our local community college lowered its fees to $20/credit.
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Old 11-23-2008, 04:51 PM   #99
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Tuition at our local CC is free if you maintain a B average. Pretty good deal.
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Old 11-23-2008, 05:12 PM   #100
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Stupid is as Stupid Does..? Mee too!
>They say learn from your Mistakes? Sure, if you have enough time & Money Left to learn..
> Keep 3 yrs in Cash out to pay your bills?
Ok, did that..
>And I still have another 13 yrs worth sitting , so Do I invest it or Just let is sit in Cash?
> Don't Need to buy more stocks and make More $ in 2-5 yrs from now.!
> Feel Like just gambling it and buy Bull Funds and if they Make Double the $ than my Reg. Funds? Donate it to Charity..!
> Or just the Heck with it and put it in my already Over loaded Bond funds..?
> Things were Much more fun when I was Working my Business and getting all that Free $..vs Making it on Investing..
> I shouldn't have sold my business..it's doing better than ever before! Most of my former competitors are Out of business now..Gone broke
> would have loved to been around and heckled them ...other than just Send them Sorry your Gone Cards..& thanks for your giving your Business!
> Sometimes there is More to life than just Money!

For the Masses? I think Obama's idea of Converting peoples #401k/#403's into SS is a good Idea.. it will increase peoples SS by +50% at least and that's what most need to have and take away their chance to gamble it away or Allow all the Crooks to steal it from them in the market..

I never had a #401k or even a IRA..but if I did? I'd vote for it..
I wonder how much $ the Top UAW people have stolen out of their members Pension fund all these yrs?
and Invested it in their Auto Co. they worked for? Watching it go down the Drain.... I never thought I'd live to see the day GM at $2 a Share!
and see Oldsmobiles Gone... and a Chevy Impala costing $25,000? Give me a Break! The New American Slogan is going to be?

Baseball, Apple Pie and a Toyota?

Give me a Break!

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