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Home price drop is biggest ever
Old 01-30-2008, 08:15 AM   #1
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Home price drop is biggest ever

CNN Money Article - Home price drop is biggest ever The S&P Case/Shiller report shows the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.

Excerpt from the article
Tuesday's report came in the wake of many other surveys indicating that the housing market is getting worse. Foreclosure filings and the risks of future foreclosures were both up sharply; the number of new homes sold plunged more steeply than any year on record; and the pace of existing home sales fell to their lowest level in 27 years.

End of excerpt

Just look at the losses at UBS per this USA Today article UBS adds $4B to subprime losses, bank deep in red - USATODAY.com

With the subprime fiasco, the problems with the economy and with people having problems living from day to day, one has to wonder if a recession is not already upon us and if a depression is on the horizon?

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Old 01-30-2008, 08:36 AM   #2
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Things are terrible, everywhere you look. I say we just commit hari kari...

You go first...
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Old 01-30-2008, 08:58 AM   #3
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I will not be committing hari kari, but do think we're now in a recession. Too many safeguards are now in place that were nonexistent at the beginning of the Great Depression such as FDIC, FICA, unemployment insurance and stricter requirements for purchasing stocks on margin; and don't think we'll have another depression any time soon because of those safeguards. We have both economic expansions and recessions, and I believe we're now in the recession cycle. As far as its intensity, I believe we're in for probably the worst recession since Post-War War II. Yes, I am proudly wearing my tin foil hat.
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Old 01-30-2008, 09:29 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
Things are terrible, everywhere you look. I say we just commit hari kari...

You go first...
The bad thing about committing hari kari is that our loved ones would have to ask for charity, hold fundraisers and maybe mortgage the house just to plant us in the ground. And let's not forget about the cost of the monkey suit that we wll be buried in.

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Not in Vancouver it isn't
Old 01-30-2008, 09:56 AM   #5
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Not in Vancouver it isn't

Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
Things are terrible, everywhere you look. I say we just commit hari kari...

You go first...
Vancouver, Canada - homes prices are still rising. If you want to get into that market, a SDH with cost you around $700,000 cdn in the GVA. The buyers/sellers/media believe that they are simply immune from N.A. housing downturn. Buyers are so wrapped up with this frenzy, they "need" to buy now before they become priced out of the market.
Time will tell
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Old 01-30-2008, 10:00 AM   #6
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Vancouver, Canada - homes prices are still rising. If you want to get into that market, a SDH with cost you around $700,000 cdn in the GVA. The buyers/sellers/media believe that they are simply immune from N.A. housing downturn. Buyers are so wrapped up with this frenzy, they "need" to buy now before they become priced out of the market.
Time will tell
"But, it's different this time."
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Old 01-30-2008, 10:17 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Retire Soon View Post
I will not be committing hari kari, but do think we're now in a recession. Too many safeguards are now in place that were nonexistent at the beginning of the Great Depression such as FDIC, FICA, unemployment insurance and stricter requirements for purchasing stocks on margin; and don't think we'll have another depression any time soon because of those safeguards. We have both economic expansions and recessions, and I believe we're now in the recession cycle. As far as its intensity, I believe we're in for probably the worst recession since Post-War War II. Yes, I am proudly wearing my tin foil hat.

I think we are in a bad business cycle... and there is a lot of bad news going on, but right now I would not think we are in a recession... and I also bet that this is not going to be even close to 'the big one'... to many talking heads saying how bad it is, but the housing problems will work themselves out and it is a small percentage... maybe 1 to 2%...


And I read in some article that said if our financial system can not withstand a hit like it has (which is small in comparison to other times), then we need to develop a new system as this is 'normal'.
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Old 01-30-2008, 10:22 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
I think we are in a bad business cycle... and there is a lot of bad news going on, but right now I would not think we are in a recession... and I also bet that this is not going to be even close to 'the big one'... to many talking heads saying how bad it is, but the housing problems will work themselves out and it is a small percentage... maybe 1 to 2%...


And I read in some article that said if our financial system can not withstand a hit like it has (which is small in comparison to other times), then we need to develop a new system as this is 'normal'.
I hope that you are right and I am wrong!
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Old 01-30-2008, 10:23 AM   #9
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Well, since we went through a few recent years where the Home price gain is biggest ever I suppose it's reasonable to expect we would see the converse.

Even though no one would believe it for a while.......

Folks are finally learning the lesson that home prices DO NOT always go up! Where did people ever get that idea anyway?!?!?!?

If homes get knocked back down to 2002 prices, that just doesn't seem like the worst thing in the world to me. It was a bubble. Yes, some poor folks got caught in the bubble - stuff like that always happens.

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Old 01-30-2008, 01:21 PM   #10
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The "bubble economics" discussion has been split into its own thread here: Bubble Economics
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Old 01-30-2008, 01:41 PM   #11
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Today's misc. housing crash news (don't worry, these links have absolutely nothing to do with me or my blog - just passing these along for those interested in this thread topic):
House prices keep falling (Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney)
U.S. 10-city house price drop a record in Nov (World News, Business News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com)
Case-Shiller Housing Index Continues to Slide (Stock Market News, Opinion & Analysis, Investing Ideas -- Seeking Alpha)
SPCase-Shiller Data for November 2007 (East Bay Housing Bubble)
Great news! House prices are down (News and Views from The Times and Sunday Times | Times Online)
House Prices Fall, but Remain Unaffordable (Top News Archive - Yahoo! Finance)
House Foreclosure Rate Soars in 2007 (Top News Archive - Yahoo! Finance)
Foreclosures continue to soar (Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney)
FBI Probe Excludes The Biggest Fraudster: Fannie Mae (The top news headlines on current events from Yahoo! News)
The Fed and Mortgage Debt as Money (Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops)
Real Problem: Consumers at End of Their Ropes (Robert Reich's Blog)
Rebate Is Futile (Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops)
What's Bernanke To Do? (Stock Market News, Opinion & Analysis, Investing Ideas -- Seeking Alpha)
In America, the land of bubbles, the next pop will be the biggest (MarketWatch.com: Stock Market Quotes - Business News - Financial News)
California Unemployment Agency Blames Housing (edd.ca.gov)
Don't Make The California Refinance Mistake (San Diego Predatory Lending)
Pay Heed to What Realtors DON'T Say in Their Latest Pitch (slow site - A Message from Advertising Age...)
60 Minutes Excerpt (Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops)
The great fiscal stimulus package ... of 1929 (MarketWatch.com: Stock Market Quotes - Business News - Financial News)
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Old 01-30-2008, 01:52 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by MillionaireMommyNextDoor View Post
Today's misc. housing crash news
It's always amusing reading the various housing pundits as they try to make sense of this chaotic market. I'm happy that we don't have to sell today, but we are seriously thinking about a downsize in a year or two (esp now that the Florida tax issues have been clarified a bit).

DW-Realtor seems to ignore everything except the "inventory" of houses in your target market, as if nothing else matters. Currently we are looking at about 14-18 months locally. After that prices should stabilize and start to slowly increase, barring a "black swan" such as another 2004 7-hurricane year, or other unpredictable calamity. She's looking at March being the best month she has had since we moved here 5 years ago, if all done deals close.

It's a good feeling to like where you live and to be in no pressure to sell in times like this.
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Old 01-30-2008, 02:15 PM   #13
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Quote:
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Things are terrible, everywhere you look. I say we just commit hari kari...

You go first...
I say we find the bottom and start buying
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Old 01-30-2008, 02:17 PM   #14
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Dang, I must not be very good at that sarcasm stuff...

Hey, Cube_rat; good idea. I think I'll go out and buy some bottom...
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Old 01-30-2008, 06:46 PM   #15
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I'm seeing one bad thing about the housing crisis that most experts are not talking about. The sub-prime mess and the housing price bubble may have started this, but now developers and builders are going bankrupt, and its trickling down to the next level. Architects, engineers, banks, suppliers and anyone supporting the housing industry are suffering because they can not collect on their builder/ developer accounts or maintain their past sales volumes. This forces these companies to cut costs to survive, and labor is the first thing to go. As unemployment rises, consumer spending falls. I dont see any way to avoid a recession. The Fed is just trying to soften the blow.
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Old 01-30-2008, 07:14 PM   #16
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No problem...I am sure the Fed will drive us to a new bubble soon enough....
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