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Old 06-30-2015, 10:05 AM   #21
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I agree with photoguy and it comes down to jobs. As we move towards a specialized economy most people find that they need to live near large urban areas to find work. Gone are the days where small factories dotted the rural midwest and everyone in town just worked there. Add the crappy commutes that living in the exhurbs can entail you then have a recipe where if you want a house it needs to be in that "sweet spot".

I believe that previously the movement out of cities essentially masked the pitfalls of urban sprawl and now that people are moving back into the cities its weaknesses are more apparent. Young people don't want the rural factory life and they don't want hellish commutes, seems pretty obvious to me what's going to happen to prices then.
Lofties - that's what some call them here in KC. The movement is still going on and trying to gain traction in various small neighborhoods.

heh heh heh - one sees them in good weather carrying a days worth of groceries or jogging or dog walking or biking or hanging out.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:06 AM   #22
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I guess I am missing what really new with the authors point. As long as I've been alive, there have been premiums for desirable cities/neighborhoods/streets, unimaginable premiums in parts of NYC, Boston, San Fran, LA, Seattle, DC, etc. However, the disparity between the most desirable neighborhoods and the worst may be wider (e.g. the worst have become worse over the past generation or two?) - and income inequality/disparity has "enabled" a wider spread than ever before. What's desirable may change a little, for example walkability is more fashionable and suburbs less so, than in the low cost energy days long ago.

And it seemed the author was really sharing his (political economic) views on rent control actions more than anything else.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:22 AM   #23
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To live in Manhatten and raise a family requires enough income to pay the rents and to send your children to a private school. The same holds true for most of our largest cities, I believe. That is one key reason why people buy homes in suburbia; to get affordable access to good schools. Walkability and the other factors mentioned in first article probably aren't high on the list for parents comtemplating 20 years of paying for their kids education IMHO.
Ding, ding, ding!

I see the "walkable" stuff as merely marking a predominance in the US population of the "newly wed and almost dead," as my real estate finance professor described renters many years ago. Once the millenials grow up a bit and have some kids they will start realizing that in most cities walkable equals crappy schools, high pollution and higher crime levels, they will head out to the burbs like their parents did.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:27 AM   #24
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I guess I am missing what really new with the authors point. As long as I've been alive, there have been premiums fordesirable cities/neighborhoods/streets, unimaginable premiums in parts of NYC, Boston, San Fran, LA, Seattle, DC, etc. However, the disparity between the most desirable neighborhoods and the worst may be wider (e.g. the worst become gotten worse over the past generation or two) - and income inequality/disparity has "enabled" a wider spread than ever before. What's desirable may change a little, for example walkability is more fashionable and suburbs less so, than in the low cost energy days long ago.

And it seemed the author was really sharing his (political economic) views on rent control actions more than anything else.
+1

There's some in depth work done by people like Edward Glaeser and Richard Florida [linked above] Not going for trivial, but a "housing crisis"
is just supply and demand imbalance. The reasons are numerous and various.
Take juicy jobs out of San Jose, I wouldn't find it attractive, nor would Williston, ND be much fun without the oil boom. Both have a "housing crisis", well, Williston now...

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Old 06-30-2015, 10:35 AM   #25
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I think that there has also been a fashion change in what is considered desirable in a neighborhood. Fashion changes a lot faster than available housing stock.
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Old 06-30-2015, 12:38 PM   #26
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Maybe Detroit is one of the most obvious role jobs play, among other factors. Population down 60%, declining property values (other than Grosse Pointe?), high unemployment & crime. Though some stories suggest they've begun climbing their way back?
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Old 06-30-2015, 08:58 PM   #27
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I didn't think much about our ties to the car until we spent two years living on Kwajalein, a 2x.5 mile island in the western Pacific. No personal cars, bicycle was the ride du jour. When we came back to Colorado, it was back to the 1hr commute and automotive transportation gymnastics for every errand. Through totally fortuitous circumstances we now have a 1-mile living radius, including work, almost walkable.


What I'm noticing with my megacorp peers is a desire to cut the commute and in some cases buy back 2-3 hours of their day by taking a position 'in the provinces', so to speak, and get away from the metropolis. To them, walkability is a pipe dream...
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Old 06-30-2015, 11:39 PM   #28
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Their is lots of good affordable housing with reasonable commutes in flyover country.
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Old 07-01-2015, 08:32 AM   #29
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Walkability can be very nice. When I was working we lived within about 500 yards of my office which was in downtown Toronto. Still have the condo and use it as a pied-a-terre for occasional visits. Nice contrast to our other homes but certainly wouldn't want to live there in retirement.
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Old 07-01-2015, 08:37 AM   #30
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Walkability can be very nice. When I was working we lived within about 500 yards of my office which was in downtown Toronto. Still have the condo and use it as a pied-a-terre for occasional visits. Nice contrast to our other homes but certainly wouldn't want to live there in retirement.
Danmar, WADR, the vast majority of homeowners and potential homeowners can maybe swing one home and have to make a lot of compromises about it. Your earnings level is/was exceptional. The rest of us plebes usually get to pick one or two of three things we all want: convenient location, nice/large home, and good schools/low crime.
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:11 AM   #31
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...The rest of us plebes usually get to pick one or two of three things we all want: convenient location, nice/large home, and good schools/low crime.
As often said, my housing of last resort would be a small RV parked on state land in NM. Lemme see how that would score.

Convenient? Yes, close to hiking and the outdoors, yet costs only a few dollars a day. Nice? Yes, my RV even has AC and bathroom. Large? Yes, it's larger than a van. School? Low crime? There's nobody around. Score on all points.
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:37 AM   #32
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Danmar, WADR, the vast majority of homeowners and potential homeowners can maybe swing one home and have to make a lot of compromises about it. Your earnings level is/was exceptional. The rest of us plebes usually get to pick one or two of three things we all want: convenient location, nice/large home, and good schools/low crime.
Yes, I know how lucky I am. Thought I could add something. If you think my posts offend, I will cease and desist. What does WADR mean?
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Old 07-01-2015, 10:27 AM   #33
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Yes, I know how lucky I am. Thought I could add something. If you think my posts offend, I will cease and desist. What does WADR mean?
WADR = With All Due Respect
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Old 07-01-2015, 10:28 AM   #34
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Yes, I know how lucky I am. Thought I could add something. If you think my posts offend, I will cease and desist. What does WADR mean?
No, of course they do not offend. WADR = With All Due Respect. Was not being passive aggressive, I really meant no disrespect.

I am curious about something, since you bring multiple dwellings up: how do you maintain all 3? One of the showstoppers for me in being tempted to acquire a rural cabin is that I simply cannot imagine having the time to deal with more than one house to maintain.
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Old 07-01-2015, 10:29 AM   #35
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As often said, my housing of last resort would be a small RV parked on state land in NM. Lemme see how that would score.

Convenient? Yes, close to hiking and the outdoors, yet costs only a few dollars a day. Nice? Yes, my RV even has AC and bathroom. Large? Yes, it's larger than a van. School? Low crime? There's nobody around. Score on all points.
Plus you could very easily set up a meth lab...
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Old 07-01-2015, 10:56 AM   #36
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In the US we also have a strong cultural preference for single family homes, which, obviously, don't lend themselves to walkable density. It's a shame, really, because for a lot of people the yard around the house is just one more chore and not even such a great buffer from the inconsiderate neighbor.
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Old 07-01-2015, 11:40 AM   #37
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I've lived both.

I prefer the suburbs.

The endless concrete becomes unbearable after a while. Parks are a refuge, but are seemingly always taken up by organized teams. As a Chicago boy, we went to the parks as much as possible, but were still getting kicked out by baseball leagues in the day, and softball in the evening. I hated not having a creek to play in and find frogs.

As an adult, the 6 or 8 inches of wall was no barrier to roaches, bedbugs, parties, rough sex sounds, etc. My suburban yard is.

The key to the yard is learning low maintenance. Here people are planting grass that needs cutting maybe every 4 weeks, or in many cases, just groundcover. The grass yards are usually for people with kids. The groundcover versions or for the rest of us.

Can I walk to a store? Yes. It takes 30 minutes. It is a long walk. It is good for me. It is not 5 minutes like Chicago. Oh well.
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Old 07-01-2015, 11:43 AM   #38
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Plus you could very easily set up a meth lab...
That appears to be a plus for those so inclined. However, if you want to stay in state campgrounds with water and electricity to ease the summer heat, you'd better watch out for the nosy rangers.
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Old 07-01-2015, 11:49 AM   #39
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I've lived both.



I prefer the suburbs.



The endless concrete becomes unbearable after a while. Parks are a refuge, but are seemingly always taken up by organized teams. As a Chicago boy, we went to the parks as much as possible, but were still getting kicked out by baseball leagues in the day, and softball in the evening. I hated not having a creek to play in and find frogs.



As an adult, the 6 or 8 inches of wall was no barrier to roaches, bedbugs, parties, rough sex sounds, etc. My suburban yard is.



The key to the yard is learning low maintenance. Here people are planting grass that needs cutting maybe every 4 weeks, or in many cases, just groundcover. The grass yards are usually for people with kids. The groundcover versions or for the rest of us.



Can I walk to a store? Yes. It takes 30 minutes. It is a long walk. It is good for me. It is not 5 minutes like Chicago. Oh well.

At least you have lived both to make an informed decision. I have never done anything but live in small rural towns my entire life. That will permanently engrain a "set your ways" attitude. I take it personally about a "traffic jam" when I have to wait for more than 2 cars to pass before I can pull out onto a road. So I will continue to live a SFH and complain about having to mow my grass that I am never on except to mow it.


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Old 07-01-2015, 11:56 AM   #40
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I have lived in the suburb all my life, then got a 2nd home in the boonies. I have never lived in the city, where one can walk to stores and restaurants. I like to visit big cities, but same as Fuego, to live there would require someone to pay me big bucks, let alone me having to pay more for a home.

Even crowded suburbs like the surrounds of LA, SF, or DC make me miserable.
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