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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-14-2007, 04:35 PM   #21
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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In an interview about his sale of Equity office Properties Sam Zell offered the possibility of a terrorist attack as one reason why he wanted to unload, rather than wait for the possibility of top dollar.
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I guess it has to happen - the question is when, where, how and our reaction.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-14-2007, 04:38 PM   #22
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by dex
I guess it has to happen - the question is when, where, how and our reaction.
This is what the poet Don Rumsfeld called a "known unknown." It's priced in to some extent. Remember how the markets reacted to the London bombings? They didn't.

The things that really move markets are the unknown unknowns.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-14-2007, 04:44 PM   #23
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by Oldbabe
In the early 70s, I was in a young marriage with a new baby and my husband at the time had a job. We had no debt and only the basic bills so we hardly felt it. But my dad lost his job in the aerospace industry and with 3 boys and a wife to support things were very dicey for a while. He tried selling insurance but he didn't have the temperment of salesman. Luckily, he was hired back in a lesser position by an employee he had trained. That experience really soured my dad and turned him into a real cynic about his business. He couldn't wait to retire after that, although it took him quite a few years. He was really happy once he finally did.

Flash forward 35 years: my former husband last year was laid off by the company he had given his labor to for over 30 years. Now, in his late fifties, he works at Walmart.
Some of my recollections of the 70's recession are - I lived in NYC
1. People with PHDs driving taxis
2. Price controls - I was making minimum wage of about 1.15/hour and it was frozen
3. Inflation - I worked in a supermarket and we used to change the prices of the items on the shelf regularly
4. A pollitician said - Inflation is tougher on those with money than on the poor - those with money loose buying power. He was saying the truth but was looked upon as being insensitive.

With the early 80s recession the psycology of the USA changed. At that time we had what was called rolling recessions - manufacturing, service and the elimination of middle management. Fear was really put into the economy's equation.

I would say that it is the lack of fear that has been missing in recent years and that lack of fear has make people unprepared.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-14-2007, 09:19 PM   #24
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by Laurence
I used CC to refer to unsecured debt. What does the U.S. have for collateral? Will we sell off national monuments? "The Sony Wega Grand Canyon!"...
The U.S. is the wealthiest nation in the history of civilization, and you are laughing at the concept that we would have collateral to back up our obligations I don't even know how to answer that.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-14-2007, 09:36 PM   #25
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by dex
I guess I am posting this for the younger members on the board who have not experienced a recession ...

If a recession dose hit then all the advise about not having debt and having a rainy day fund begins to mean something.
Unfortunately, I think that if the younger members are on this board, you're probably preaching to the choir. I consider myself one of the "younger members" (early 30's), and I take the no debt/emergency fund thing very seriously.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 01:02 PM   #26
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by JustCurious
The U.S. is the wealthiest nation in the history of civilization, and you are laughing at the concept that we would have collateral to back up our obligations I don't even know how to answer that.
I am completely open to correction on this, just tell me what we would give our debtors if we could not make the payments on time. The government doesn't own businesses, if by wealth you mean GDP, 3/4 of that is consumer spending. In simple terms I'm missing the collateral. Now tax rates could always go up, just like you can increase your income to cover your increased credit card payments. But due to the aging boomer population, cuts in Social Security and Medicare are (politically) completely off the table, and while we may slow the growth in defense spending, I don't see it getting cut, either. The discretionary piece of the pie is going to disapear soon, and we'll be more vulnerable to "market shocks" than we were in the past.

(putting my moderator hat on) : People, please, Please, PLEASE try to keep the conversation civil! Not interested in who started what, let's just end it. Hey, we could even get back to the OP subject!
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 01:06 PM   #27
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by Laurence
People, please, Please, PLEASE try to keep the conversation civil! Not interested in who started what, let's just end it. Hey, we could even get back to the OP subject!
Oh come on Laurence, let them follow up a bit on this leather theme.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 03:27 PM   #28
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Originally Posted by Laurence
The government doesn't own businesses, if by wealth you mean GDP, 3/4 of that is consumer spending. In simple terms I'm missing the collateral. Now tax rates could always go up, just like you can increase your income to cover your increased credit card payments.
I think the primary "collateral" of the US government is it's authority to tax the national wealth of the US. Our debtors look at this the way a bank would look at a person's job/income before lending him more money. Tax rates can only be rasised to a certain level before the burden on the economy becomes so great that activity fals and actual tax income plumets. This is more true today than 30 years ago, as American businesses can more easily outsource their production/services overseas (it was harder to do with steel plants ad car production). And it doesn't make any difference if we're talking about personal income taxes or corporate taxes--both raise the cost of production and will induce businesses to do their business elsewhere. As soon as those who lend the US money (i.e. those who buy govt securities) see that the US has reached the practical limit to service the debt, then rates they'll demand will go up.
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 04:58 PM   #29
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

MODERATOR POST: Oh great, I tried to split out the Iraq conversation from this thread and I seem to have lost those posts somehow. This was not on purpose. I apologize, I'm not out to delete other people's posts, I feel like a jerk now. Sorry!!!
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 05:12 PM   #30
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

Bravo - great job laurence

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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 05:18 PM   #31
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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MODERATOR POST: Oh great, I tried to split out the Iraq conversation from this thread and I seem to have lost those posts somehow. This was not on purpose. I apologize, I'm not out to delete other people's posts, I feel like a jerk now. Sorry!!!
No problem--good riddance!
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 05:36 PM   #32
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

Soooo - Lawence gets an honarary Golden Kayak award - or what?

heh heh heh heh - I bad - just couldn't resist. , , , 8).
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits
Old 03-16-2007, 05:46 PM   #33
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Re: Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits

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Oh come on Laurence, let them follow up a bit on this leather theme.
Please leave Karl Rove and Kathy Bates out, though...

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