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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 10:21 AM   #21
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

The leading economic indicators is in fact...leading!

It showed steady firm growth up until this coming month, and its prediction is for ~9 months out. If you subscribe to the site they'll let you look at the past data.

They've predicted the past down times with pretty good accuracy.

I've seen the positive reports. Honestly I dont get them since their data says otherwise. The "growth rate" chart shown on the front page is straight economic growth; zero is zero growth...below that a recessionary posture...above that positive growth.

I dont know how there can be an interpretation of slowing growth to a zero growth scenario that malingers for 6+ months a sign of positive future economic growth. Especially considering the Fed appears nowhere near ready to stop raising rates and that has to continue applying braking pressure to the economy.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 10:48 AM   #22
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

down .7%
VTSMX mainly

down 4.4%. ouch
NAESX brought that account down

up 2.6%
have some Nikkei225 exposure there
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 10:59 AM   #23
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Down about 1,000%, but I'll know more later tonight. Of course, that's not my YTD portfolio performance; I don't monitor that very closely. It's my withdrawal rate based on my annual spending (twice my last six months per Quicken, excluding mortgage interest) divided by my net retirement resources (retirement accounts minus the mortgage on my house). When it gets to 4%, I'm quitting.

malakito.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 12:42 PM   #24
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

We have a range of investments (mostly mutual funds) but they range from a low of 1.5% (YTD) to a high of 13.2% ( )
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 12:57 PM   #25
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

My portfolio ytd: down 0.24%

But I have a volatile portfolio consisting mostly of individual stocks and mutual funds.

Last year, my return was 8.2%. The portfolio didn't do that well until the last quarter, when many of the stocks and mutual funds I held spiked up. I also had a sizeable one-time special dividend (courtesy of Bill Gates & Co.) received in December that added to the total return for the year. That dividend was equal to 69.8% of the salary I made prior to retiring. If only it was a yearly dividend . . . sigh. I think the dividend was mostly to placate shareholders who have seen the stock go sideways in a very narrow range for the last 5 to 7 years? :P

Hopefully, there will be some nice surprises to the upside as 2005 progresses. (Of course, it could go the other way, too, in a big way . . . ) I plan to diversify more into international equities via ETFs and additional international mutual funds and individual ADR foreign stocks that throw off qualified dividends. I don't have any bonds/treasuries now but may add some to the portfolio as interest rates go up.

Anyway, congratulations to those who are making great returns so far! And best of luck to the rest of us who are either sinking at the present time or just breaking even.







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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 02:20 PM   #26
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

According to MSN Money, I'm up a miserable 1.19% YTD .... I feel like I am really out of balance. Have 56% in general fund, 37% in 2 indexed mutual funds, 8% aggressive ... not all in one place. Not too sure how to rebalance now. Don't need it for current income .... more concerned about long term growth & stability. I know I'm too heavy into the general fund for my age group but they were paying 6% when I put it there 2 yrs ago and I was just too lazy to do much with it .... only guaranteeing 4.3% this year. Time to move on. Suggestions?
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 02:34 PM   #27
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Most of us need to be a little more patient. Two
months return YTD does not mean much in the
longer run.

Cheers,

Charlie
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 02:37 PM   #28
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Agreed, Charlie, but I only rebalance once or twice a year [you can wince now]. And I tend to do it the first time right about the time I get my tax refunds [insert second wince]. But then again, this is my 457 I'm talking about and I only draw 5% a year from it so it never really impacts my day-to-day spending.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 06:21 PM   #29
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

I only have data for the last two weeks, where my portfolio of $31k was up 0.8%. However, if we annualize this, we get a 23% return per year. Then, compound that number over the next 37 years until I reach age 60 (assuming no cash in or out) and you arrive at $65,743,196.65. Discount that back to today's dollars at a 3% rate of inflation and I've got a cool $21.9m, or a SWR of $876k/year at 4%. Yeah, I think I could get by on that.

I really enjoy the "new math."
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-11-2005, 09:20 PM   #30
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Quote:
Agreed, Charlie, but I only rebalance once or twice a year [you can wince now]. And I tend to do it the first time right about the time I get my tax refunds [insert second wince]. But then again, this is my 457 I'm talking about and I only draw 5% a year from it so it never really impacts my day-to-day spending.
Hi gayl,

The SWR simulations from FIRECALC are based on rebalancing only once a year. And there are least a couple of studies out there that indicate that rebalancing every other year might actually be better.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-12-2005, 12:44 PM   #31
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

3%+ YTD. Happy with that.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-12-2005, 04:09 PM   #32
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Just shy of 3%. Still holding lots of cash in Vanguard MM at 2.3%. Contributors are:

Wellington
Hi Yield bond fund
FNYTX
VangEuro StkIndx

Bleeders and non-performers are:
VangREIT
TIPS

Hit&Run:
MRK


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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-12-2005, 04:56 PM   #33
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

I don't know - Swag - maybe down 1%. Since I'm retired and have mostly balanced index it's not very important.

The actual dollars in dividends/interest availible to spend gets my attention.

I will do a rough mark to market of the 15% in DRIP stocks in the taxable realm. Looks like the taxable part is up 16% or so over last year - div growth plus some mergers with cash payouts as part of the deal.

Portfolio values are more important to slice and dicers and those in the accumulation phase.

On the other hand - being male - I do watch the markets.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-12-2005, 06:06 PM   #34
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

You know, I'm going to search through previous posts/archives for DRIP information, and what you all have chosen, but if anyone has a link they'd like to share to broaden my horizens, I'd be much obliged!
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-12-2005, 06:41 PM   #35
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Thanks Salaryguru for making me feel better about being so laid back regarding checking my allocations. I will finish figuring out how I want to rebalance and then probably ignore it again for a while.
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?
Old 03-12-2005, 06:48 PM   #36
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Re: How are your portfolios YTD?

Up a shade under 10% YTD. Year continues to look and be volatile for the markets. Energy continues to be primary focus but related stocks got ahead of themselves and took a tumble last couple of days. USD looking weaker and weaker....

I am an absolute believer in having investments carrying a good dividend. Monthly preferably. If it doesn't have a dividend it is not likely to find a home in my account!
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