Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-11-2016, 04:39 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,432
No one knows. Maybe we are there, maybe not.
__________________

__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-11-2016, 04:49 PM   #22
Full time employment: Posting here.
CaliforniaMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 846
We are a day closer than yesterday
__________________

__________________
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
CaliforniaMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 04:50 PM   #23
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 609
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh View Post
My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.
Wow! This prediction couldn't have been made today.

All I have to say is, "drugs are bad".
__________________
Retired July 2013 at age 49.

Lazy Portfolio Investor:
AA: 55% Stocks
35% Bonds
10% Cash
NanoSour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 04:51 PM   #24
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 609
MKay?
__________________
Retired July 2013 at age 49.

Lazy Portfolio Investor:
AA: 55% Stocks
35% Bonds
10% Cash
NanoSour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 05:12 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,455
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh View Post
My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.
Ooooo - I'll take the other side of that! We got very close this morning - got down to 1810, a new 12 month low.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 05:24 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
... My other indicator is when my smarter-than-everyone-else neighbor sells everything. Her last remarkable insight was the third week of February 2009 and she proudly announce she went 100% to cash.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie1926 View Post
Marko, please update us on your neighbor
I am afraid that was a one-shot indicator. She probably is still in cash.

Marko needs to canvas the neighborhood for other "indicators".
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 05:25 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,125
Why speculate about the unknowable
__________________
Danmar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 05:35 PM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,695
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie1926 View Post
Marko, please update us on your neighbor!


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
Well, she's so utterly brilliant--just ask her-- that she never really got back in, expecting each new day since March 2009 to bring a reversal and then slowly realizing that she missed the boat.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 05:38 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Nemo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Belleville, ONT
Posts: 4,303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danmar View Post
Why speculate about the unknowable
+1
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."

The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
Nemo2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 09:17 PM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danmar View Post
Why speculate about the unknowable
Because if we know, it becomes fact and there's nothing left to speculate.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 09:29 PM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: NorCal
Posts: 74
If history is any indicator the VIX usually spikes first. VIX closed today at 28.14. In August of 2011, VIX was in the 40's and in October of 2008 VIX shot up to the 80's so my guess is we're not there yet.
__________________
FIREd_2015 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 10:13 PM   #32
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 402
Yellen's done talking and did not rule out negative interest rates, so it's anybody's guess. Capitulation possibly ended today when Dow went down by -400 points - many sold a lot. Then went up to -234 at close. Dow futures now +63. Oil recovered from $26.50 to $27.68 (now). This is not 2008, but more like 2011.

If I'm wrong about today, then Capitulation ends near summer time when the demand for oil goes up as everyone takes their car on a road trip with cheap gas prices, and all equities goes up as oil prices going up.
__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
cyber888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 10:17 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,455
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREd_2015 View Post
If history is any indicator the VIX usually spikes first. VIX closed today at 28.14. In August of 2011, VIX was in the 40's and in October of 2008 VIX shot up to the 80's so my guess is we're not there yet.
I would expect we have at least 40s. It reached 40s in August of 2015.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
how close are we to capitulation?
Old 02-11-2016, 10:33 PM   #34
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
how close are we to capitulation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by aim-high View Post
Don't think we're anywhere close to capitulation as there are plenty of bulls still around. When all the bulls become bears is when the bottom is in. moo

+1

My target when I turned bearish back in November was SP500 @ 1750 and til we hit 1750 level I think any rally is a fools rally.
__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 04:54 AM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 1,086
Is "capitulation" a fancy word for having hit the bottom?
__________________
HadEnuff is online now   Reply With Quote
how close are we to capitulation?
Old 02-12-2016, 06:19 AM   #36
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
how close are we to capitulation?

Yes. The proverbial throwing the baby out with the bath water. Sell just to be selling. Fear is felt broadly. A crescendo of selling resulting in a washout and herd selling where only the strong survive..

It's the emotional - behavioral aspect of finance - a very important part of human driven markets - that makes trading an art not just a science.

Capitulation. Nope. Hasn't happened on this down leg yet. Not even close. Another 100 -150 points down and maybe we see it.

We may grind around 1850 as we have since January but another fast and furious leg down will happen later, probably in March...

Remember China has been on vacation all week - when they come back to work we will see VIX spike and the selling ensue

Keep in mind we've not seen a near 20 percent correction for 6 years. We were way overdue. Even overdue for more frequent 10 percent corrections - we saw only once or twice since 2009, this now makes three. ...

Welcome back to how markets usually taste when not spiked with fed's super-punch.
__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 06:31 AM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 1,086
I've been managing my own investments since 1980, so I've seen this play before. 2 years ago I was talking to a young man who had graduated from school after the collapse of 2008, so all he knew was the upswing. He was telling me how he was invested and that he had a high tolerance for risk.
I told him that at this point, he didn't know what his tolerance for risk really was. What he had was a high tolerance for double digit returns, and that he wouldn't really know his tolerance for risk until he saw the value of his portfolio diminish by 40%. The last I knew he was into day trading. I am afraid to ask how he's doing now.
__________________
HadEnuff is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 07:50 AM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DFW_M5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,980
The real question is what is going to turn all the negative news around or where is the black swan to the upside? Saudi's cut production, China performs more financial slight of hands, european banks regain strength, Kim Jung Un gets kidnapped, etc.
__________________
Doing things today that others won't, to do things tomorrow that others can't. Of course I'm referring to workouts, not robbing banks.
DFW_M5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 07:53 AM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 1,086
Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5 View Post
The real question is what is going to turn all the negative news around or where is the black swan to the upside? Saudi's cut production, China performs more financial slight of hands, european banks regain strength, Kim Jung Un gets kidnapped, etc.
or "the market" decides that there has been enough bloodshed, and given the paucity of any better choices, puts money back into equities.
__________________
HadEnuff is online now   Reply With Quote
how close are we to capitulation?
Old 02-12-2016, 08:02 AM   #40
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
how close are we to capitulation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff View Post
or "the market" decides that there has been enough bloodshed, and given the paucity of any better choices, puts money back into equities.

Yep... The issue of negative rates is probably the riskiest issue. Even more so than pre-election jitters or the others named above.

The real question is whether or not there is some lurking systemic bank risk that has yet to fully surface ...

Time heals these wounds. Just have to be patient. And hope like hell that we don't have a Japan-like economy for the next 25 years, because firecalc doesn't consider those economic situations in the historic Monte Carlo based simulation dataset
__________________

__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
To close, or not to close? (No-interest credit card accounts). Amethyst FIRE and Money 6 05-24-2009 12:12 PM
Who here is getting close to capitulation? (Or how much more can you stomach?) shotgunner FIRE and Money 66 11-21-2008 03:40 PM
Mutual Fund outflows - capitulation sign? Gardnr FIRE and Money 11 10-15-2008 11:19 AM
Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market? shotgunner FIRE and Money 87 09-18-2008 07:18 PM
ETFs that are "close" but not "wash sale close" FinanceGeek FIRE and Money 1 11-18-2007 11:08 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:38 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.