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Old 04-19-2016, 03:23 PM   #61
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Downturns generally end in capitulation. Wonder if we are anywhere close to it with the market in the last few days.
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Don't think we're anywhere close to capitulation as there are plenty of bulls still around. When all the bulls become bears is when the bottom is in. moo
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volumes are still low and VIX is only at 30. It was at 40 in August. I'm betting on quite a while. We really won't get there without higher volumes.
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Yeah I think the broader market is nowhere near capitulation. I need to see way more articles about how the financial system as we know not may not exist tomorrow.
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If history is any indicator the VIX usually spikes first. VIX closed today at 28.14. In August of 2011, VIX was in the 40's and in October of 2008 VIX shot up to the 80's so my guess is we're not there yet.
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My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.
This thread started on 2/11. I though it would be interesting to look back at the replies now that we can see what actually happened. 2/11 was THE low day, but the majority did not think so. I have learned that I have no idea where the bottom is so I do not try to guess. The crystal ball (last quote) hit it on the nose today. Anyone can make a lucky call on occasion.
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Old 04-19-2016, 03:29 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
I though it would be interesting to look back at the replies now that we can see what actually happened. 2/11 was THE low day, but the majority did not think so.

Ahem, 2/12 . . .

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When will it end? Once people learn that not everything is 2008. So soon enough I'd wager.
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Old 04-19-2016, 03:35 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
This thread started on 2/11. I though it would be interesting to look back at the replies now that we can see what actually happened. 2/11 was THE low day, but the majority did not think so. I have learned that I have no idea where the bottom is so I do not try to guess. The crystal ball (last quote) hit it on the nose today. Anyone can make a lucky call on occasion.
Hey, I was the one who started this thread. Maybe I should start a market timing news letter. Just send me $999/mo and I will be happy to let you know my thoughts on where the market is! LOL!!!!
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