I have a master financial spreadsheet with data going back to 1988. It tracks the budget, income, savings, taxes, SS, life insurance and a few what if scenarios (lose my job). So I have no shortage of data. There are a LOT of moving parts and unknowns between now and mid next year. So, no decisions will be made until some of these risks are either realized or mitigated.
I am crunching the data to determine if I want to ER in June 2019. I have been going full speed ahead for 30 years and maybe it's time for a change. I will post the numbers and see what the collective ER wisdom might reveal. Since there are a lot of moving parts, I am going to baseline everything to June 2019.
Age = 53 (as of June 2019), no debt
99,000 Annual Retirement Income @ 70
45,000 military pension w/COLA
54,000 SS @ 70
Tricare for Life (=no cost until 65, then is a no cost Medicare supplement,$3,500 / year out of pocket cap)
86,744 Base Expenses (includes taxes, excludes any vacation, cars, known unknowns)
12,256 delta
Once I get to age 70, the COLA pension + SS covers all my base expenses (shown below).
So all I really need to do is build a bridge from 53 to 70. I can build that bridge with savings.
773,000 Bridge amount required (assumes 2% real return)
1,070,000 Savings (60/40 AA)
401k = 50%
Roth = 12% (available to withdraw tax/penalty free)
Taxable = 20%
Cash = 18%
I have enough to build the bridge to SS @ 70. I also have enough available to bridge from 53 to 59.5 when the 401k is available.
297,000 left over (can SWR this @ 3%)
The real question comes down to expenses. That $86,744 is our current base budget that we are using. We have overspent it so far this year by $7,000 (mostly for clothes and dining out). It also does not include vacations, cars, major home repairs and who knows what else. The $12,256 difference between that and my retirement income is available, but is it enough? I also have $300,000 outside the SS bridge that I could SWR @ 3% for $9,000 a year. Now my excess is $21,256. Is that enough?
So, this is where I am struggling. If we knew we could stick to a $99,000 budget, we would have enough cushion to retire in June. Here's the budget:
$17,700 a year on food? For 2 people? That's insane.
$4,800 for clothes?!? That's down from $8,400
$10,200 Misc? What's that? I don't know.
$5,000 for gifts?
I think we have a lot of room for reductions.
You may fire when ready, Gridley!