How did we miss these stocks?!?

[poyet]

Spanky,

I'm sure you feel frustrated, but to be more complete:

1) It lost 28% between the opening on the 19th @ 0.4$ and the 21st @ 0.28$ but

2) I had a look again and this time the volume is there, it starts looking like a real breakout ! price and volume breakout PVBK. It might be the beginning of the real story. If it unfolds as a real breakout, starting form 0,5$ it can go up to 10 bucks or more.

It's always difficult to buy a stock which is up 50% from the day before, but this is what breakouts are about. If it is a real PVBK the entire ride is ahead !. Nevertheless most of them make a pullback on the top of the base, or even retrace 68% of the initial move. It should not violate the gap below 0.4$ but traders will try to test, the stop should be below but not too far as the stop will be then at more than 25% ! and if you get right in, you'll have high chances to be hit on the stop. If you do not put a stop, 75% of these breakout fade and when the stock is back to the base @ 0.25$ it's a 50% loss until it is - often - unlisted and you get a (100%) loss.

I wish you the best.

[astromeria]

I bought CHS (Chico's FAS) the day I first shopped there (they sell clothing designed for women in their 40s-60s). Unfortunately (a) I was feeling gloomy about retail after Christmas 2004 and sold it in February when it was up ~100%, and (b) I bought it in my taxable account! At least it was a long-term gain.

[Spanky]

Poyet,

Thanks so much for the trading tips. I really appreciate your time to analyze this stock.

Spanky

[poyet]

Well, considering the two GICS sectors GSPBIOT and GSPHC and using the Metastock explorer I gave above, here follows a small list of which DYX, EPMD, PTN, VGNI.OB are kind of similar breakouts. CAMH.OB is well spotted out and the column W_with_V gives how many days since the breakout occured.

Security Name W_with_V Ticker Symbol
DiaSys Corporation 4.0000 DYX
CAMBRIDGE HEART 6.0000 CAMH.OB
MEDWAVE 18.0000 MDWV
Molecular Diagnostics, In 18.0000 MCDG.OB
Magna-Lab, Inc. 19.0000 MAGLA.OB
SPECTRX 28.0000 SPRX.OB
US CHINA IND 28.0000 CHDX
CELL GENESYS 6.0000 CEGE
GeneMax Corporation 8.0000 GMXX.OB
SIGA PHARMACEUT 8.0000 SIGA
Dyax Corp. 11.0000 DYAX
PACIFICHEALTH 11.0000 PHLI.OB
Vyrex Corporation 15.0000 VYRX.OB
VIRAGEN EUROPE 22.0000 VGNI.OB
Viragen, Inc. 24.0000 VRA
Naturewell, Inc. 25.0000 NAWL.OB
Palatin Technologies, Inc 27.0000 PTN

Best luck again.

[BUM]

Hi Nords

I followed Palomar closely for a couple years. I had associates leave long standing positions join PMTI. Having been mostly burned physically and financially by medical laser companies like CLZR COHR Laserscope (LSCP?) PHLZ etc. I decided to stay away from the sector. They are very hi priced items that are inherently risky to own and operate compared with their industrial counterparts. A doc or hospital may buy 1 or 2 lasers for infrequent use but a semiconductor manufacturer might need 100 lasers running 24/7 to mark their product.
Today's hot $100k medical laser or hi energy light source could be replaced by tomorrow's cheap LED array.

For me buying, selling and renting that iron was the best approach.

Merry Christmas

BUM

BUM, ELOS/NYSE.

[BUM]

AAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEE

[Spanky]

Quote:

CAMH.OB is well spotted out and the column W_with_V gives how many days since the breakout occured.

According to American Bulls http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPa...cker=OTC&Typ=S

This is a "Wait" -- wait for a lower end.

[poyet]

Reading the link, I saw that they said to even open a short sale << the wait tag says it all "keep on staying short or at cash" >> !!! UNBELIEVABLE !!!

First you cannot (or with extreme difficulty) short securities under $5 (it's just prevented from most / all brookers), not to speak under 1$.

Second, would it be possible, that's mere madness, to give that kind of advice with other's people money. Come on, if you were short how can you sustain a 50% move against you in a single day without having put a buy to cover stop long before these 50% have run against you. And now, are you going to wait until you loose 150%, 200%, 1000% before covering !!!!

The only good order on that kind of securities is a buy stop, as described in Weinstein. Let's say the base is @ 0.3, then you can place a buy stop @ 0,37 or 0.35$ which is trigerred if the security goes past this mark (which would have happenned on the 15th and then your stop would have probably been hit on the 68% retracement which followed on 19th, 20th, 21st with a fishing spike on 21st)). you would already be at a loss !

Then again, all that is PVBK trading and has nothing to do with investing. You do not care a damn of the company business and they could manufacture pampers for martians that would do fine if the PVBK makes it.

Now, one wishing to play the game could enter LONG with a limit order @ 0.36 (68% retracement of the last move) and place a sell stop @ 0.29 (more than 20% !!! loss). Then on the 21st CAMH lost 20% during the day on a very low volume of 48k$ (which means biggest position is a 10th to get liquidity on stop execution, i.e. 4k$ ....)

I will not do it as ROC MM200 is < 0 and the first trading rule to success is to stick with the rules. Even if CAMH makes a big run (and ROC 200 might become > 0 but too late), I will not regret to stick with the rules as statistically you only make money doing so.

If some play and win I'll be happy for them, it does not take anything from me, this is what is great with trading.

[Spanky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by poyet I some play and win I'll be happy for them, it does not take anything from me, this is what is great with trading.

Make sure only play with the money you can afford to lose.

[Spanky]

poyet,

CAMH.OB is up over 100% since 12/22/05. You mentioned that you never cut a winner. However, do you ever set a stop loss/limit? If so, at what level do you set the limit?

Spanky

[poyet]

The discussion has two aspects. What should be done for a single position (considered stand alone) and for a position as part of a portfolio for which you want to remain globally within specific risk control levels. Well, I'm going to try to make it simple and give general ideas.

Each and every position should have a stop, be it the ISL (initial stop loss), ZLS (zero loss stop, i.e. break even), or a TSL (trailing stop, meaning you very probably make a profit would this kind of stop be triggerred but not necessarily). Being LONG, stops can only be moved up, and SHORT down. You need al these stops because summing up money you'll give back on all positions would stops be hit gives the overall drawdown (and you want to have control on that) & summing up profit & loss P&Ls on all positions gives you the "hardcash drawdown HCDD" (stops triggerred hopefully do not always generate a loss but can also generate a profit as measured from the entry point, therefore P&Ls). Therefore DD is always negative whereas when positions have run in your favor HCDD can be positive.

TSLs are of various types depending of the volatility of the stock and the dynamics of the move. All that has been programmed, tested and statistically benchmarked by the system I run. There is no bullet proof strategy and sometimes the stop is hit and the securities resumes its trend... without you. Basically you can have TSL200, TSL50, TSL20, TSL9, etc.. (number being the moving average you follow). The fastest the move the closest the stop. But you let it run, never cut a winner. I cannot tell you specifically what my program would do on CAMH but I guess the stop would be somewhere in the 0.76 range (TSL20 or TSL9 ?).

Then all portfolio's positions are checked to adjust all stops (if necessary & depending on the volats) to ensure DD and HCDD are under control (therefore + or ++ etc.). Everyday. That's why it is better to have a system computing all that daily. Furthermore, trading SHORT and LONG are very different for stop placement strategies as well.

Well, that's kinda of an introduction. You can have an idea of stops move @ http://cosmosportfolios.blogspot.com/ looking at actions taken by the system.

None is a PVBK like CAMH so stops are moved more gently.

[Spanky]

Poyet,

Thanks for sharing your insight regarding the multi-tier stop point method. It sounds like a good system.

Spanky