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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-13-2005, 07:33 PM   #61
 
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

Well, there is not a lot of Bulls. The market has been flat for 5 years.

Just in case you haven't noticed.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-13-2005, 07:41 PM   #62
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

Donner - I agree

So I plan to hurry up and do absolutely nothing.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-13-2005, 07:52 PM   #63
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

This oneís for Grumpy!

WARNING!* WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! WARNING!
What follows may cause headaches, migraines, flashing spots before the eyes, dizziness, nausea and stomach aches.* Do not proceed unless you have the patience and stomach for crunching lots of numbers.* Otherwise, GO BACK BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!* SKIP TO ANOTHER THREAD IMMEDIATELY!*


For* the more adventurous among our members, you , too, can create your own little S&P 500 intrinsic value calculator and stick your own SUBJECTIVE and PERSONAL inputs in there and determine your own S&P intrinsic value.* Itís kind of fun.*

First, go to the S&P website at this site and click on the 12 month values tab.* This will show you what the latest annual S&P earnings and dividends trends are:

httpówww2.standardandpoors.com-spf-xls-index-SP500EPSEST.xls.url

Step 1.* Looking at the historical trends you will see that the average earnings and dividend growth rates for the past 15 years are 6.77% and 4.03% respectively.* These are pretty good jumping off points for analyzing future growth of earnings and dividend and serve as initial input for the model outlined below.*

Step 2. So, if these are the growth rates, what base are we growing from?* Looking at the S&P data we can see that the S&P organization is estimating 2005 operating earnings and cash dividends of* $73.65 and $21.80, respectively.* Our little calculator below grows that base over a 29 year period* at 6.77% and 4.03%.* We will value that stream of earnings* in Step 6.

Step 3.* Part of valuing the asset is determining the present value today of the market value of the asset at the end of the holding period Ė in our case our model holds the asset for 29 annual periods and liquidates it at the end of year 29 or the start of year 30.* You may have a different holding period.* If you are 80 years old it doesnít make sense assuming a 29 year holding period.* If you are 25 years old you may want to assume a longer holding period.* But I will be 85 in 2033 and thatís a plenty long enough holding period for me.* So use your own personal holding period.* I am using the NPV function in the Excel worksheet to calculate the net present values.* Itís pretty easy.* Just click the function tab on the main menu and follow your nose.* Canít miss.* If you donít do Excel donít try this at home.*

Step 4.* Once youíve grown your earnings and dividends out to the end of your holding period they can be used to determine the value of the asset at that time.* How?* Just apply your personal P/E or, inversely, your Earnings Yield assumption to the earnings your have projected at the end of your holding period.* In the case below, the projected 12 month operating earnings on Dec 31, 2033, when I am 87, will be $461.05.* If the P/E ratio is 20, or inversely, the E/P Earnings Yield is .05, then that $461.05 will be valued at $9,221.07 by Mr. Market.* *Not bad.

Step 5.* Ok, so if earnings grow at an average of 6.77% nominal over the next 29 years and the P/E remains at a high 20 times and Mr. Market will put a value of 9221.07 on the S&P on Dec 31, 2033, what should we pay for that future 9221.07 asset today?* Whatís it worth to us to own that future today?* *It depends.* It depends on your personal capitalization rate.* What rate of return do you require to compensate you for the risk that operating earnings of this asset class are not going to grow at 6.77% average over the next 29 years? Itís a volatile earnings stream.* What alternative returns are available to you?* What kind of return can you get risk free and sleep at night?* What kind of premium to that risk free return must you get in order to entice you into investing in an asset that is going to produce an earnings stream that is growing at 6.77% on average, maybe, or maybe not?* The little model below applies a 13.1% capitalization rate to the 9221.07 on Dec 31, 2033 value and establishes a current net present value of $259.64.* (in the NPV function of Excel just type in 13.1% in the first term of the function and 9221.07 in the year 29 slot and leave the other 28 slots blank).* With a required rate of return of 13.1% you should be willing to pay no more than $259.64 for an asset that you wonít get to liquidate until Dec 31, 2033 at $9,221.07.

Step 6.* So where is the value in the S&P if* you should only be willing to pay $259.64 for the right to liquidate it in 2033?* The value, in a discounted earnings valuation model,* is in capturing the earnings stream over those 29 annual* periods.* While you own that asset those earnings are theoretically yours.* So what is that stream of earnings covering 29 years worth to you today?* You are going to capture $6,183.41 cumulative over that period.* Using a 13.1% capitalization rate, you should be willing to pay $944.54 in exchange for the right to capture those earnings growing each year over the holding period.* This is calculated using a series of 29 separate present value calculations over the 29 year holding period and cumulating the total value.*

Step 7.* *The intrinsic value to you today determined by discounting and valuing future earnings on the S&P 500, with a 20/1 P/E assumption, a 29 year holding period, a 6.77% earnings growth assumption, and a 13.1% personal capitalization rate is $259.64 for the right to liquidate the asset at the start of year 30 ---PLUS--- $944.54 for the right to capture earnings for 29 years, for a total market value of $1,204.18.* This is how I see Mr. Market basically valuing earnings in todayís market.*

Step 8.* Run through steps 2 through 7 inserting dividends for earnings and the dividend yield* for the earnings yield.* You will be discounting and valuing an asset on the basis of dividends and not earnings.* You will see that Mr. Market applies a far different capitalization rate to dividends than to earnings.* * S&P dividend streams, though somewhat risky, are viewed by Mr. Market as a much less risky proposition than earnings streams.* In fact, Mr. Market says they are not much riskier than risk free Treasury bonds. (if you believe that).* Dividend streams are* treated and priced more like annuities than risky streams in todayís market environment.* *

Step 9.* If you grow your dividends at 4.0% for 29 years starting from a base of $21.80 then your dividend at Dec 31, 2033 will be $65.37.* Using todayís 1.7% dividend yield, Mr. Market would value that $65.37 at* $3,845.50.* *Using a 5.9% capitalization rate for dividends implies that you should be willing to pay no more than $729.39 for the right to liquidate the asset at Dec 31, 2033.* Similarly,* the dividends you are going to capture in those 29 annual periods will amount to $1,154.67.* *With a 5.9% capitalization rate you should be willing to pay not more than $468.65 for that dividend stream over that period.
The total market value based on a dividend discount model with these inputs would be $729.39 Plus $468.65 or $1,198.04.* This is how I see Mr. Market currently valuing S&P 500 dividend streams.*

Summary, Conclusions, And Other Miscellaneous Thoughts* *Intrinsic value is an entirely subjective and personal concept.* The answer is it depends.* It depends on what the heck you decide to value and those input assumptions you see below and as described above.* Personally, I am very leery of valuing earnings.* First, they are volatile as we have seen over the years.* Second,* as a small, individual investor I am never going to get my hands on those earnings.* In theory I own them, but in the real world I donít control them.* Look at Microsoft.* No dividends for years and years and years.* Bill Gates was finally SHAMED into sharing a little of the wealth with his stockholders.* Earnings are a mirage to us little guys.* It might make sense for Warren Buffet or Kirk Kerkorian to determine value on the basis of future expected earnings.* They can control the company and capture its earnings stream.* Its real for them. Itís only theoretical for me.* I donít like establishing* an intrinsic value based on the other guyís inputs or accepting a market value based on what the other guy (or Mr. Market in the entirety) is willing to pay for the asset.* I donít like take it or leave it choices.* The S&P is worth 1200 to Warren Buffet, Kirk Kerkorian and Mr. Market based on expected earnings flows and somebody elseís capitalization rates so it ought to be worth 1200 to Donner?* I donít think so.

I feel more comfortable with valuing dividends.* It is a more predictable stream and it is actually, really, coming to my pocket.* Dividends are cold, hard and real to the little guy.* Now look at the assumptions baked into a dividend discount model you need to assume in order to justify a 1200 market value on the S&P.* *You have a 1.7% dividend yield (historically low and dropping out of sight).* You have a 4.0% dividend growth rate.* Dividends got out of favor a while back and they may yet get back into favor as a result of tax changes.* I think a 4.0% growth rate going forward is doable but optimistic given recent history.* Finally, you have a 5.9% capitalization rate.* At 4:00PM Friday, the 30 year Treasury Bond was yielding 4.32%.* Mr. Market is telling us that, hey, I am only willing to pay you about 160 basis points above what you can get risk free from the U.S. Treasury for the next 30 years.* Whatís that?* Chump change?* Dividends may be less volatile than earnings but donít tell that to GM stockholders.* Mr. Market is telling me that my retirement capital is worth chump change.* If I up my capitalization rate from the 5.9% Mr. Market is implicitly using to just 8.0%, and leave all the other optimistic inputs the same,* then the intrinsic value calculation falls to $775.40.* Pretty sensitive, donít you think?* 8.0% nominal and 4.5% real is not too unreasonable for a little guy, is it?* The difference between an 8.0% and 5.9% capitalization rate of dividends is the measure of Animal Spirit in the market today.* This is a little scarya s it wonít take much change in Mr. Marketís inputs to melt off a considerable portion of todayís market value.* Mr. Market is pricing in a very rosy and happy set of assumptions going forward.* Letís hope heís right.

Donner


Donnerís Little S&P Intrinsic Value Model:



* * * *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Earnings Dividends
Last 15 Year Avg
Earnings and Div Growth Rate * * 6.77% * * * 4.03%


Personal Inputs:

Earnings Analysis:

Earnings Yield * * * * * * * 0.05
(Inverse of P/E)
Earnings Growth Rate * * * * * * * 6.8%
Personal Capitalization Rate 13.1%

Dividend Analysis:

Dividend Yield * * * * * * * *1.7%
Dividend Growth Rate * *4.0%
Personal Capitalization Rate * *5.9%

S&P 500 S&P 500
Earnings Dividends
Year Year Per Share Per Share
1 2005 * * * 73.65* * * * * * * * 21.80
2 2006 * * * 78.64 * * * *22.67
3 2007 * * * 83.96 * * * *23.58
4 2008 * * * 89.64 * * * *24.52
5 2009 * * * 95.71 * * * *25.50
6 2010 * * 102.19 * * * *26.52
7 2011 * * 109.11 * * * *27.58
8 2012 * * 116.50 * * * *28.69
9 2013 * * 124.38 * * * *29.83
10 2014 * * *132.81 * * * *31.03
11 2015 * * *141.80 * * * *32.27
12 2016 * * *151.40 * * * *33.56
13 2017 * * *161.65 * * * *34.90
14 2018 * * *172.59 * * * *36.30
15 2019 * * *184.27 * * * *37.75
16 2020 * * *196.75 * * * *39.26
17 2021 * * *210.07 * * * *40.83
18 2022 * * *224.29 * * * *42.46
19 2023 * * *239.47 * * * *44.16
20 2024 * * *255.69 * * * *45.93
21 2025 * * *273.00 * * * *47.77
22 2026 * * *291.48 * * * *49.68
23 2027 * * *311.21 * * * *51.66
24 2028 * * *332.28 * * * *53.73
25 2029 * * *354.78 * * * *55.88
26 2030 * * *378.79 * * * *58.12
27 2031 * * *404.44 * * * *60.44
28 2032 * * *431.82 * * * *62.86
29 2033 * * *461.05 * * * *65.37


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Earnings Dividends
NPV of Income Stream * * * * * * * * * * * *$944.54 * *$468.65
Ending Value of Asset * * * * * * * * * * $9,221.07 $3,845.40
NPV of Ending Value of Asset * * * * * *$259.64 * *$729.39
Intrinsic Value of S&P 500--NPV+NPV * * * * $1,204.18 $1,198.04









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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-13-2005, 08:11 PM   #64
 
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
This oneís for Grumpy!

WARNING!* WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! WARNING!
What follows may cause headaches, migraines, flashing spots before the eyes, dizziness, nausea and stomach aches.* Do not proceed unless you have the patience and stomach for crunching lots of numbers.* Otherwise, GO BACK BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!* SKIP TO ANOTHER THREAD IMMEDIATELY!*


For* the more adventurous among our members, you , too, can create your own little S&P 500 intrinsic value calculator and stick your own SUBJECTIVE and PERSONAL inputs in there and determine your own S&P intrinsic value.* Itís kind of fun.*

First, go to the S&P website at this site and click on the 12 month values tab.* This will show you what the latest annual S&P earnings and dividends trends are:

httpówww2.standardandpoors.com-spf-xls-index-SP500EPSEST.xls.url

Step 1.* Looking at the historical trends you will see that the average earnings and dividend growth rates for the past 15 years are 6.77% and 4.03% respectively.* These are pretty good jumping off points for analyzing future growth of earnings and dividend and serve as initial input for the model outlined below.*

Step 2. So, if these are the growth rates, what base are we growing from?* Looking at the S&P data we can see that the S&P organization is estimating 2005 operating earnings and cash dividends of* $73.65 and $21.80, respectively.* Our little calculator below grows that base over a 29 year period* at 6.77% and 4.03%.* We will value that stream of earnings* in Step 6.

Step 3.* Part of valuing the asset is determining the present value today of the market value of the asset at the end of the holding period Ė in our case our model holds the asset for 29 annual periods and liquidates it at the end of year 29 or the start of year 30.* You may have a different holding period.* If you are 80 years old it doesnít make sense assuming a 29 year holding period.* If you are 25 years old you may want to assume a longer holding period.* But I will be 85 in 2033 and thatís a plenty long enough holding period for me.* So use your own personal holding period.* I am using the NPV function in the Excel worksheet to calculate the net present values.* Itís pretty easy.* Just click the function tab on the main menu and follow your nose.* Canít miss.* If you donít do Excel donít try this at home.*

Step 4.* Once youíve grown your earnings and dividends out to the end of your holding period they can be used to determine the value of the asset at that time.* How?* Just apply your personal P/E or, inversely, your Earnings Yield assumption to the earnings your have projected at the end of your holding period.* In the case below, the projected 12 month operating earnings on Dec 31, 2033, when I am 87, will be $461.05.* If the P/E ratio is 20, or inversely, the E/P Earnings Yield is .05, then that $461.05 will be valued at $9,221.07 by Mr. Market.* *Not bad.

Step 5.* Ok, so if earnings grow at an average of 6.77% nominal over the next 29 years and the P/E remains at a high 20 times and Mr. Market will put a value of 9221.07 on the S&P on Dec 31, 2033, what should we pay for that future 9221.07 asset today?* Whatís it worth to us to own that future today?* *It depends.* It depends on your personal capitalization rate.* What rate of return do you require to compensate you for the risk that operating earnings of this asset class are not going to grow at 6.77% average over the next 29 years? Itís a volatile earnings stream.* What alternative returns are available to you?* What kind of return can you get risk free and sleep at night?* What kind of premium to that risk free return must you get in order to entice you into investing in an asset that is going to produce an earnings stream that is growing at 6.77% on average, maybe, or maybe not?* The little model below applies a 13.1% capitalization rate to the 9221.07 on Dec 31, 2033 value and establishes a current net present value of $259.64.* (in the NPV function of Excel just type in 13.1% in the first term of the function and 9221.07 in the year 29 slot and leave the other 28 slots blank).* With a required rate of return of 13.1% you should be willing to pay no more than $259.64 for an asset that you wonít get to liquidate until Dec 31, 2033 at $9,221.07.

Step 6.* So where is the value in the S&P if* you should only be willing to pay $259.64 for the right to liquidate it in 2033?* The value, in a discounted earnings valuation model,* is in capturing the earnings stream over those 29 annual* periods.* While you own that asset those earnings are theoretically yours.* So what is that stream of earnings covering 29 years worth to you today?* You are going to capture $6,183.41 cumulative over that period.* Using a 13.1% capitalization rate, you should be willing to pay $944.54 in exchange for the right to capture those earnings growing each year over the holding period.* This is calculated using a series of 29 separate present value calculations over the 29 year holding period and cumulating the total value.*

Step 7.* *The intrinsic value to you today determined by discounting and valuing future earnings on the S&P 500, with a 20/1 P/E assumption, a 29 year holding period, a 6.77% earnings growth assumption, and a 13.1% personal capitalization rate is $259.64 for the right to liquidate the asset at the start of year 30 ---PLUS--- $944.54 for the right to capture earnings for 29 years, for a total market value of $1,204.18.* This is how I see Mr. Market basically valuing earnings in todayís market.*

Step 8.* Run through steps 2 through 7 inserting dividends for earnings and the dividend yield* for the earnings yield.* You will be discounting and valuing an asset on the basis of dividends and not earnings.* You will see that Mr. Market applies a far different capitalization rate to dividends than to earnings.* * S&P dividend streams, though somewhat risky, are viewed by Mr. Market as a much less risky proposition than earnings streams.* In fact, Mr. Market says they are not much riskier than risk free Treasury bonds. (if you believe that).* Dividend streams are* treated and priced more like annuities than risky streams in todayís market environment.* *

Step 9.* If you grow your dividends at 4.0% for 29 years starting from a base of $21.80 then your dividend at Dec 31, 2033 will be $65.37.* Using todayís 1.7% dividend yield, Mr. Market would value that $65.37 at* $3,845.50.* *Using a 5.9% capitalization rate for dividends implies that you should be willing to pay no more than $729.39 for the right to liquidate the asset at Dec 31, 2033.* Similarly,* the dividends you are going to capture in those 29 annual periods will amount to $1,154.67.* *With a 5.9% capitalization rate you should be willing to pay not more than $468.65 for that dividend stream over that period.
The total market value based on a dividend discount model with these inputs would be $729.39 Plus $468.65 or $1,198.04.* This is how I see Mr. Market currently valuing S&P 500 dividend streams.*

Summary, Conclusions, And Other Miscellaneous Thoughts* *Intrinsic value is an entirely subjective and personal concept.* The answer is it depends.* It depends on what the heck you decide to value and those input assumptions you see below and as described above.* Personally, I am very leery of valuing earnings.* First, they are volatile as we have seen over the years.* Second,* as a small, individual investor I am never going to get my hands on those earnings.* In theory I own them, but in the real world I donít control them.* Look at Microsoft.* No dividends for years and years and years.* Bill Gates was finally SHAMED into sharing a little of the wealth with his stockholders.* Earnings are a mirage to us little guys.* It might make sense for Warren Buffet or Kirk Kerkorian to determine value on the basis of future expected earnings.* They can control the company and capture its earnings stream.* Its real for them. Itís only theoretical for me.* I donít like establishing* an intrinsic value based on the other guyís inputs or accepting a market value based on what the other guy (or Mr. Market in the entirety) is willing to pay for the asset.* I donít like take it or leave it choices.* The S&P is worth 1200 to Warren Buffet, Kirk Kerkorian and Mr. Market based on expected earnings flows and somebody elseís capitalization rates so it ought to be worth 1200 to Donner?* I donít think so.

I feel more comfortable with valuing dividends.* It is a more predictable stream and it is actually, really, coming to my pocket.* Dividends are cold, hard and real to the little guy.* Now look at the assumptions baked into a dividend discount model you need to assume in order to justify a 1200 market value on the S&P.* *You have a 1.7% dividend yield (historically low and dropping out of sight).* You have a 4.0% dividend growth rate.* Dividends got out of favor a while back and they may yet get back into favor as a result of tax changes.* I think a 4.0% growth rate going forward is doable but optimistic given recent history.* Finally, you have a 5.9% capitalization rate.* At 4:00PM Friday, the 30 year Treasury Bond was yielding 4.32%.* Mr. Market is telling us that, hey, I am only willing to pay you about 160 basis points above what you can get risk free from the U.S. Treasury for the next 30 years.* Whatís that?* Chump change?* Dividends may be less volatile than earnings but donít tell that to GM stockholders.* Mr. Market is telling me that my retirement capital is worth chump change.* If I up my capitalization rate from the 5.9% Mr. Market is implicitly using to just 8.0%, and leave all the other optimistic inputs the same,* then the intrinsic value calculation falls to $775.40.* Pretty sensitive, donít you think?* 8.0% nominal and 4.5% real is not too unreasonable for a little guy, is it?* The difference between an 8.0% and 5.9% capitalization rate of dividends is the measure of Animal Spirit in the market today.* This is a little scarya s it wonít take much change in Mr. Marketís inputs to melt off a considerable portion of todayís market value.* Mr. Market is pricing in a very rosy and happy set of assumptions going forward.* Letís hope heís right.

Donner


Donnerís Little S&P Intrinsic Value Model:



* * * *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Earnings Dividends
Last 15 Year Avg
Earnings and Div Growth Rate * * 6.77% * * * 4.03%


Personal Inputs:

Earnings Analysis:

Earnings Yield * * * * * * * 0.05
(Inverse of P/E)
Earnings Growth Rate * * * * * * * 6.8%
Personal Capitalization Rate 13.1%

Dividend Analysis:

Dividend Yield * * * * * * * *1.7%
Dividend Growth Rate * *4.0%
Personal Capitalization Rate * *5.9%

S&P 500 S&P 500
Earnings Dividends
Year Year Per Share Per Share
1 2005 * * * 73.65* * * * * * * * 21.80
2 2006 * * * 78.64 * * * *22.67
3 2007 * * * 83.96 * * * *23.58
4 2008 * * * 89.64 * * * *24.52
5 2009 * * * 95.71 * * * *25.50
6 2010 * * 102.19 * * * *26.52
7 2011 * * 109.11 * * * *27.58
8 2012 * * 116.50 * * * *28.69
9 2013 * * 124.38 * * * *29.83
10 2014 * * *132.81 * * * *31.03
11 2015 * * *141.80 * * * *32.27
12 2016 * * *151.40 * * * *33.56
13 2017 * * *161.65 * * * *34.90
14 2018 * * *172.59 * * * *36.30
15 2019 * * *184.27 * * * *37.75
16 2020 * * *196.75 * * * *39.26
17 2021 * * *210.07 * * * *40.83
18 2022 * * *224.29 * * * *42.46
19 2023 * * *239.47 * * * *44.16
20 2024 * * *255.69 * * * *45.93
21 2025 * * *273.00 * * * *47.77
22 2026 * * *291.48 * * * *49.68
23 2027 * * *311.21 * * * *51.66
24 2028 * * *332.28 * * * *53.73
25 2029 * * *354.78 * * * *55.88
26 2030 * * *378.79 * * * *58.12
27 2031 * * *404.44 * * * *60.44
28 2032 * * *431.82 * * * *62.86
29 2033 * * *461.05 * * * *65.37


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Earnings Dividends
NPV of Income Stream * * * * * * * * * * * *$944.54 * *$468.65
Ending Value of Asset * * * * * * * * * * $9,221.07 $3,845.40
NPV of Ending Value of Asset * * * * * *$259.64 * *$729.39
Intrinsic Value of S&P 500--NPV+NPV * * * * $1,204.18 $1,198.04









One thing is for sure. No one will ever accuse Donner of just trying to up his post count!
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-13-2005, 10:41 PM   #65
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

Quote:
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Grumpy called. He's decided he prefers trash talk.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-14-2005, 07:58 PM   #66
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

Quote:
Originally Posted by th
Oh I think its going to be a very, very bad surprise.
Take a guess. How bad. 40%?
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-14-2005, 10:29 PM   #67
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

S&P 500 is 30% overvalued according to dividend discount model.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-14-2005, 11:16 PM   #68
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

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I diverge by holding a fair bit of managed funds with good track records through rough patches instead of indexes.
Which funds, th?
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-14-2005, 11:42 PM   #69
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

Wellington, Wellesley, vanguard health care.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-14-2005, 11:52 PM   #70
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

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Originally Posted by th
Wellington, Wellesley, vanguard health care.
Love Wellington and Wellesley- If I was buying funds- that's what I'd buy. Haven't looked at Vanguard health care.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-17-2005, 04:49 PM   #71
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

I decided to take a closer look at my current holdings (all Vanguard funds). I'm not quite as heavy into straight indexed stocks as I thought I was. I have 23% of assets in Wellington, 55% in LifeStrategy Moderate Growth and 6% in the Extended Market (Wilshire 4500 I think), and these hold my current domestic stock. LS Mod is 35% TSM, but it also is 25% Asset Allocation Fund, and at a quick glance it appears to be doing an spot-on impression of Index 500 to the tune of 100% of its assets as of May 31. Odd. But AA has the option of going all-bond or all-cash or any mix at their whim.

So at the moment 19% of my money is in TSM (through LS), 6% is in VEXMX and 14% is in Asset Allocation (through LS) which is currently structured as S&P 500 but subject to change on the manager's whim. Wellington holds domestic stock but is not indexy as far as I know.

All the doom and gloom talk over the past month or so had me wondering if I should change something. I don't expect to shift my current investments, but I may cut back even further on new 401(k) investments and build up a pile of after-tax cash earmarked for a home down payment and/or car replacement. One to five years for each event, probably. A win-win I guess because I'm not market timing, but if investments do pop and inflation goes sideways I'll look smart for building up cash.

For completeness, my portfolio, each # rounded to nearest %:

LifeStrategy Moderate (55%; following %'s are % of total portfolio)
|- 19% TSM
|- 17% Total Bond Index
|- 14% Asset Allocation
|- 6% Total International Index
23% Wellington
13% REIT Index
6% Extended Market
4% Total International Index

REITs are a tad higher than I wanted, but I goofed the transfer and didn't want to pay the redemption fee to fix it. Total Int'l weighting is 10% from standalone fund and LS component. VEXMX is there because I felt overweighted in large cap domestics.
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really
Old 06-18-2005, 10:21 PM   #72
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Re: How Expensive is the S&P, Really

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Originally Posted by Art
Haven't looked at Vanguard health care.
Art,

This fund is closed for new investors. You might consider Vanguard Health Care Viper or the Health Care Index Admiral (initial investment is $100K min).

Spanky
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