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03-25-2009, 02:59 PM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Full auto - Target Retirement 2015 while I sit in the balconey and eat popcorn.
If boredoom strikes - I have a few Norwegian widow stocks to putz with.
heh heh heh - Go team!
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03-25-2009, 03:19 PM
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#22
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Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,050
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lsbcal
I have divided my equity portfolio into 2 basic parts. A buy-hold part (BH) and a market timed part (MT). I did this after extensive backtesting of MT strategies using lots of spreadsheets. The BH part is currently about 43% of my portfolio and the MT is 0%. When the buy comes through on the MT part I'll use it to rebalance up to maybe 55% equities. As the market advances in fits and starts I'll take money out of the BH part to rebalance.
What I like about the MT part is that it is completely mechanical. No guessing about market directions, valuation judgements, or listening to the guru of the day. It is not foolproof and there will be times it will loose altitude along with the BH part.
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Not sure I get it. If you are using the BH portion to re-balance then surely it is not BH since you'll be "Selling" in response to market moves, not "Holding"? Is it perhaps BS?
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
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03-25-2009, 03:30 PM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
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I'm not sure if this was sarcastic or not, so I'll assume you are asking in a nice way. If the market advances over the next few years both the BH and MT parts will grow beyond my upper bound on equities. So for book keeping purposes, I'll sell some of the BH part along the way (and buy fixed income) while letting the MT part expand. If there is an MT sell signal then that will go into short term fixed income.
So maybe the BH/MT starts out at 35%/20% and becomes 30%/25% when an MT sell comes along. In that case if we have an extended market decline I'll still have 30% in equities. The MT approach I use has only a few trades per year on average.
Well, at least it's a plan with some well defined rules of engagement .
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03-25-2009, 03:30 PM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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When it gets within 5 percent of the 200 day moving average I would become more cautious myself. (Currently about 1033 on SMA 200 day average)
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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03-25-2009, 03:54 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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All the way up. At some point in the next few years I will start adding a small fixed income component to my permanent asset allocation. Maybe increase that fixed allocation 2% a year for a while. I'd be more likely to get more heavily invested in fixed income securities if the market has just gone up 100% over the next few years than if it is still puttering along at near flat returns.
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03-25-2009, 03:54 PM
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#26
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Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,050
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lsbcal
I'm not sure if this was sarcastic or not, so I'll assume you are asking in a nice way. If the market advances over the next few years both the BH and MT parts will grow beyond my upper bound on equities. So for book keeping purposes, I'll sell some of the BH part along the way (and buy fixed income) while letting the MT part expand. If there is an MT sell signal then that will go into short term fixed income.
So maybe the BH/MT starts out at 35%/20% and becomes 30%/25% when an MT sell comes along. In that case if we have an extended market decline I'll still have 30% in equities. The MT approach I use has only a few trades per year on average.
Well, at least it's a plan with some well defined rules of engagement .
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It wasn't meant to be sarcastic - I just couldn't resist - thanks for the restrained reply .
I see that you are talking about years which explains a lot. I assumed the OP was talking about weeks or months since the Market dropped over 50% in 12-14 months and then 2 days ago was up 20% on the year.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
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03-25-2009, 04:04 PM
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#27
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
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As others have said, I'll be riding it up and down, rebalancing as indicated by my predetermined bands. I have a preset glide path towards estimated FIRE date for gradually shifting my AA towards a 60:40.
DD
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03-25-2009, 04:05 PM
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#28
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Anchorage
Posts: 731
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I don't plan to sell equities until I get up to my asset allocation of 55% equities/45% CDs and treasuries.
I'm still buying equities verrryyy sloooowly, auto scheduled, most days of the week.
But then before this wild ride, my target AA was 60/40, so I guess IF it comes back up, I'm not really riding it quite all the way to the top.
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03-25-2009, 05:27 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,317
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Like others, up and down. I don't have a clue about when to get out. I will keep an eye on those inflation protected SPIA's for a good rate
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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03-25-2009, 05:57 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,525
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I use a wide range for my target allocation: Equities from 50-60% do nothing. I sold some equities back in early 2007 (no didn't get the peak in October) since it quickly went over my 60% upper limit in early 2007. I was wondering if I would have the guts to actually increase the equities allocation if my AA dropped below 50% but it started going back up after hitting a minimum of 52.7%. So, in answer to the Op, I'll ride up until my AA goes over 60% and then start selling as I've doing for many years now. (ER'd in December 2002). That works for me
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03-25-2009, 06:14 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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I'd be tempted to "Sell in May and go away" if the SPX is above 900 in a month or so. I'd do that with the intention of getting back in at lower levels. I probably won't though because I have no idea if we'll actually see lower levels.
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03-25-2009, 06:24 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
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My hands are firmly on the bucking bronco's reins..nice horsey...
I think when I'm past 55, I'll be stricter with myself regarding the ol' "age=bonds" rule.
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
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03-28-2009, 01:03 AM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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I'll re-balance at S&P 1000. As part of that process I'll take 100K and put it into a CD ladder.
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03-28-2009, 09:38 AM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
I'll re-balance at S&P 1000. As part of that process I'll take 100K and put it into a CD ladder.
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Will this be a dial-down of your equity allocation, relative to October 2007?
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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03-28-2009, 10:55 AM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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I rebalanced on the way down. I'll be doing the same on the way up. Ad nauseam.
Audrey
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03-28-2009, 11:12 AM
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#36
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
I'll re-balance at S&P 1000. As part of that process I'll take 100K and put it into a CD ladder.
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I'm going to do the same but at S&P 999. It will be a reduction in equities from 09/07. However, I will sleep better with the additional 100K ladder.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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03-28-2009, 11:16 AM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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As of this Friday, our net worth broke even with when we retired in August 1999. I guess anything above this is gravy? It's not like we didn't spend a bunch of money in the last 10 years.
Audrey
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03-28-2009, 12:02 PM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Us too. We are ahead of our portfolio in Aug 2002 when we ER'd and we have drawn down $300k during that period. All that other stuff was just numbers on paper...akin to "Oooh my house is worth $2 million, but I can't spend it..."
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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03-28-2009, 12:21 PM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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A tad north of 4% SEC yield wise( handgrenade close to the mythical/magic? 4% SWR number).
The Norwegian widow smiles - and no I'm not gonna say pssst - you know in this post.
Snowing north of Kansas City.
heh heh heh - I'll spend more come summer. .
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03-28-2009, 12:48 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
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For those of you who are ahead of your original retirement portfolio, did you inflation adjust the numbers?
After inflation adjusting my Apr 2003 retirement, we are -14% below the starting portfolio. At the end of 2007 we were +19% ahead. If that number gets as positive as 2007 again, it will be a big signal to me to get more conservative.
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