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Old 12-10-2011, 09:09 PM   #41
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Old 12-10-2011, 09:44 PM   #42
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11.4% IRR YTD as of Dec 9, 100% individual stocks all year (mid to large cap, US-based, dividend payers)
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Old 12-11-2011, 04:57 AM   #43
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11.4% IRR YTD as of Dec 9, 100% individual stocks all year (mid to large cap, US-based, dividend payers)

You know it is really risky to have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, especially individual ones as opposed to indexes. Even more so in year when once again bond funds had higher returns than stocks.

Not that it matters much but I assume that your 11.4% includes your withdrawals? How do you calculate the IRR for your portfolio.
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Old 12-11-2011, 06:03 AM   #44
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Overall my portfolio was up 3.8 percent in 2011. Almost all of it is in stable value funds. Most notable dog was Oppenheimer Emerging Markets ODVYX which has plummeted about 20 percent in 2011, but fortunately I only have a few thousand there.
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Old 12-11-2011, 10:12 AM   #45
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Down -2% YTD, the Van. Total Int. pulled me down 5% for the year. Tempted to buy more of it next year. Still up 15% over the last 5 years though (e.g. +3%/year).
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Old 12-11-2011, 03:27 PM   #46
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Inspired by this thread, I went and downloaded my 401(K) transactions (about 20% of our total portfolio.

49.35% Small/Mid-Cap Indexed Equity
33.62% MSCI EAFE®Indexed Equity
13.61% Emerging Mkts. IndexedEquity
03.42% Commodities

3.91% IRR (company calculated 3.7%)
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Old 12-11-2011, 03:50 PM   #47
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I am down a bit, thanks to withdrawing some funds to travel to Europe.
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Old 12-11-2011, 03:58 PM   #48
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You know it is really risky to have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, especially individual ones as opposed to indexes. Even more so in year when once again bond funds had higher returns than stocks.

Not that it matters much but I assume that your 11.4% includes your withdrawals? How do you calculate the IRR for your portfolio.
Since I only make a few (72t) withdrawals a year, it is pretty easy to calculate with the built-in Excel functions (I keep all records on a few sets of spreadsheets).

The 11.4% is the actual investment return. Since I have withdrawn about 3.1% (of the starting balance) this year, my balance is about 8.3% higher YTD.

I do not agree that this all-stock strategy is particularly risky over the long haul. My withdrawals are completely covered by the dividends (plus about $1700 this year), so I never need to sell anything. The dividends have increased by about 50% in the 5+ years I have been retired giving me a substantial cushion over what I need, and the stocks I hold (PG, JNJ, KO, ADP, MSFT, MMM, AFL, MDT, SYY, etc) are unlikely to cut dividends. Of course, I do not recommend others do this unless they also enjoy analyzing balance sheets and earnings forecasts.
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Old 12-11-2011, 04:20 PM   #49
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I don't measure performance by year to year the percentage but total net value divide by my contribution. For example, if I had $100K in contribution to my Portfolio and it dropped 50% one year then my net value would be $50K. And following year it went up 50% then my net value is only $75K. However, if $75K/100K it's 75%-100% = -25%/2 years = -12.5% average loss for two years.

If I start the withdraw phase, I'll do the same to keep the performance true to actual value of portfolio.

I'm at +1.2% for average of past 8 years when I went back to paying off my 401k loan and start contributing again.
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Old 12-11-2011, 04:23 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by CyclingInvestor View Post

I do not agree that this all-stock strategy is particularly risky over the long haul. My withdrawals are completely covered by the dividends (plus about $1700 this year), so I never need to sell anything. The dividends have increased by about 50% in the 5+ years I have been retired giving me a substantial cushion over what I need, and the stocks I hold (PG, JNJ, KO, ADP, MSFT, MMM, AFL, MDT, SYY, etc) are unlikely to cut dividends. Of course, I do not recommend others do this unless they also enjoy analyzing balance sheets and earnings forecasts.
I guess we need a better sarcasm emoticon or maybe a tag. Our strategies are very similar and we both outperformed in your case by a wide margin in my case by only a few points (but in my case that has been true for several years running) so I mocking the "riskiness of high equity exposure in individual issue" that we read in Bogleheads and sometimes here.
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Old 12-11-2011, 05:50 PM   #51
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5.49%. AA is 60/40 in index funds. Best return was in my 401k which is predominantly a bond index fund. Had an 8% return in that acct. It was dragged down by the Vanguard taxable which is VG total stock mkt index and an International index.

Overall happy with this since 18 months ago we were in Ameriprise clutches and didn't even know what AA meant! And I'm quite sure our return would have again been in negative territory due to fees.
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Old 12-11-2011, 07:26 PM   #52
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Good question, NW-Bound.

I just checked. NAV down 2% this year. Remember, you do not lose until you sell. However, Vanguard tells me my investment return was +5.7% based on year-end value. THAT is the important number to me.

I also am heavily weighted in energy (15.1%) and international (~50%). No plans to change either.

No withdrawals and no contributions this year, so it is easy to calculate.
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Old 12-11-2011, 09:24 PM   #53
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401K is up about 1.7% for the year. It's all stock (I'm in my 20's so don't mind the additional risk)
IRA is down quite a bit (15% or so, I didn't run the exact numbers), but largely due to the fact I took on some extra risk in Latin America and Financial Services stocks.

My taxable account is up 15% for the year, which is just 5 individual stocks I hold that have done very well in the second half of the year.
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Old 12-11-2011, 09:38 PM   #54
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So, what is the up/down of the total?

OK, I will spill my beans. Down 4.5%, and that is the total over several accounts, his and her 401k and roll-overs IRAs, Roth, after-tax, I-bonds, money markets and what-have-you.

I just look at the Quicken's bottom line, which shows I am down 5% from January 1st, and since I tapped a 0.5% withdrawal, that means the return has been a negative 4.5%. All dividends paid through the year have already been included in that total, either captured automatically by Quicken, or entered manually like in the case of I-bonds.
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Old 12-11-2011, 10:48 PM   #55
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Retired in 2008, keeping track of total portfolio results:

2008 -18.8%
2009 18%
2010 11.2%
2011 +2.23%YTD
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Old 12-12-2011, 06:25 AM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Aren't you glad you have some other activities to bring in some revenue? It's the same here.

Anyone else in the red? Please be manly and speak up. Don't be shy!
Frankly, if it was not for the car lot I would be flat freaking out. I really hate the idea of pulling money out of the portfolio when it's shrinking or flat, and all the market uncertainty is one reason why I started the little lot-- kind of like insurance against a long, Japanese-like lost decade (or more?) going forward.

The other reason was I got a little bored.............
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Old 12-12-2011, 09:38 AM   #57
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Anyone else in the red? Please be manly and speak up. Don't be shy!
Here, just for you! My retirement portfolio is down 1.2% YTD. I think I hold a slightly higher equity allocation than many, as my target is 54%, which includes a decent international exposure. Feel better?

I'm actually quite happy with this as thought it was going to be worse. And I have had much worse years during the last decade so given the craziness and volatility this year, I feel pretty good.

Another perspective - my retirement fund was up 12.5% last year. Maybe that's why I still feel pretty good!

I don't need to withdraw from the fund next year as I beefed up my short term cash reserves in early 2010. The funny thing is that I also played a risky bet with the short term cash and put a big chunk in long term muni bonds end of Q1 2010. That portion of the cash is up 9.5% since then and most of it tax free dividends!!! So that tends to ameliorate any disappointment about my longer term investments.

Had no idea Wellesley had done THAT well this year! Kudos to the Wellesley holders.

Audrey
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Old 12-12-2011, 10:09 AM   #58
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Personal rate of return 11/30/2011
1 year 7.7%
3 years 16.3%
5 years 7.3%

As per vanguard.
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Old 12-12-2011, 12:50 PM   #59
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Down 2.4% with a 60/40 allocation and 20% International.

My employer switched 401k providers in July which had the unintended effect of causing me to rebalance my IRA in order to keep my total investments in line.

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Old 12-12-2011, 02:02 PM   #60
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I have been a bit busy with work, no, portfolio-depletion avoidance, revenue-generating activities, and am just now taking a break to log in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardude View Post
Frankly, if it was not for the car lot I would be flat freaking out. I really hate the idea of pulling money out of the portfolio when it's shrinking or flat, and all the market uncertainty is one reason why I started the little lot-- kind of like insurance against a long, Japanese-like lost decade (or more?) going forward.

The other reason was I got a little bored.............
Yes, it is nice not having to sell low to buy food, although I am nowhere as worried as previous years. Haven't we been through worse, much worse? It just bothers me when I trail the market and most people here, particularly when I picked my own stocks.

Compared to you, I am less worried with my children already grown, and myself being closer to SS and Medicare eligibilities. Darn! Since when is getting old a nice thing?

And looking at your signature (new, I think), I saw that your wife does not work. I thought she was a school teacher, no? And ain't nothing wrong with doing what should be so easy for you, and generating some good money too.

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Here, just for you! My retirement portfolio is down 1.2% YTD. I think I hold a slightly higher equity allocation than many, as my target is 54%, which includes a decent international exposure. Feel better?
I appreciate your post, though mine would make you happier than yours me.

And I thank you for not taking offense at my adjective of "manly", which might be construed as sexist. I do remember that you are the one making investment decisions rather than your husband, in addition to being the RV driver. Darn, my memory is GOOD!

Anyway, from 2000 to 2003, I was down 40%, then rebounded with money to spare. Currently, 47% in individual stocks, 21% in equity MFs, for a total of 68% equities. Many of the stocks I have now are of large cap foreign natural resource types, hence got hurt by the world-wide economic slowdown. Ditto for my beloved semiconductors.

Me scared? Nah! I could lose a lot more, and still have plenty of money left to fill up my RV to head down to Mexico to join some Canadian RV'ers who are sunning themselves down there as we speak. They don't seem to be scared, of either the market or the reported violence down there. The only hard part is to persuade my wife to come with me, and to convince myself I can still learn some Spanish.

No, on second thought, there is still plenty of the main US and Canada left to me to explore. And then, Alaska and the Yukon are beckoning. My wife is still not sold on traveling to those wilderness areas.

Maybe next summer, I will just show her Glacier NP and Banff on the itinerary, and once I get there, just keep going generally in the NW direction. Think that might work?

Quote:
Had no idea Wellesley had done THAT well this year! Kudos to the Wellesley holders.
As I mentioned earlier, I have 1% in Wellesley. I have found that the only way I would remember to track something is to own it. I was going to buy more, then got greedy and wanted to ride my high-octane stocks a bit longer. Oops...

My style of investing is a lot whimsical than most people here. I tried not to take things too seriously. It's just money...
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