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Old 01-07-2016, 02:12 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by lem1955 View Post
Maybe CD rates will bounce up a little in a few months!
Good luck! It seems like I have been thinking/hoping this exact same thing for a few years now!
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Old 01-07-2016, 02:16 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Christine View Post
By all means - let Mr Farber sell all he wants!

I'm not that relaxed either - struggling with some big issues - like hot chocolate or tea with my afternoon snack?

Well I have to admit, I am a "market chicken". The year isn't a trading week old, and I am already up. In fact on this crazy day most of my issues are all up. This is definitely the environment for investment grade preferred stocks and people continue to bid them up for safety.
I just don't have the stomach for losses, and I respect all that can. Heck I don't even use my investment money being a pensioner and couldn't handle the losses. I just clip my mostly 6-7% coupons and move on.



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Old 01-07-2016, 02:16 PM   #63
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Generally, I find that taking a nap is the best way to handle it. Or playing with kittens, if available.

If it happens to be mid-February, I check my asset allocation, and if things are outside of the (very broad) bands I use, I'll move enough around to bring the allocation back inside the bands. I had to do that in 2009 and 2012, I think.

Of course, it's also what I do in a market upturn...
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Old 01-07-2016, 02:43 PM   #64
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Just retired in August and I am still trying to figure out how to manage AA (70% equities), rebalancing and cash flow for retirement. I am also a bucketeer with a lumpy CD ladder that should satisfy my needs for any reasonable length of downturn. I watch and read a lot but just don't react without due diligence. I am sleeping great and enjoying ER.
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Old 01-07-2016, 02:43 PM   #65
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I look at the market everyday, and more than once, whether it's up or down. The only time I don't is when I am traveling and have no internet access. That does not mean that I trade everyday.

Went upstairs to start laying down the laminate floor in a small bedroom. The Dow was down 200 points. Just went back down to have a break for lunch. While eating my nice hot bowl of French onion soup, hit refresh on the laptop screen. Dow is down 440 points. Nice!

And what is this? My put option limit order hit. Son of a gun! I still have plenty of cash to cover put options like this, but perhaps I should slow down. Man! Exciting time again so soon after 2008?
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Old 01-07-2016, 02:52 PM   #66
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Don't let it scare you. I too am a recent FIRE. I struggle with money jitters too. It's normal.

I keep reminding myself that having the cash for X number of years of basic expenses will get me through most "correction" and "recession" phases and maybe even a DEPRESSION phase.

That X factor is different for everyone. For some it's a year. For others it's 2-3 years and for yet others it's even more...7 or 8 years in cash not unheard of.

For me I'm about 20 years out from an SS check, and no pension what so ever. Plus hopefully a long many year retirement ... So by comparison I'm on the riskier end of the spectrum.

I like holding on the longer end of basic cash needs.. I hate bonds these days so my bonds are cash ...

But I need equities to offset inflation and best to snap up bargain when the market falls 15-20 percent. History says it pays off most of the time.

Without new money, you can't do that other than reducing cash- so just sit tight.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:00 PM   #67
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I just threw $4K into Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund in a 401K Roth as I need to fill it for 2015.

Might not be the lowest point this year, but I'll dribble more in later, and nobody knows it could be the lowest point this year...
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:37 PM   #68
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I am 1/4 in cash right now (it was 1/6 14 months ago), cash for at least the next 2 years or so (for other reasons). Just now recharacterizing 3 Roths and don't plan to buy anything for a little while. Reassessing my AA.

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Old 01-07-2016, 03:39 PM   #69
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I lived through 1987, 2000 and 2008 fully invested and it worked out.

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Old 01-07-2016, 03:45 PM   #70
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UGH....in my second year of retirement and DH will retire in May. I started a 72t last February and hate seeing my IRA balance decline as I am wired as an accumulator. I may revisit the funds that are being drawn from and have more drawn from the bond fund during this equity decline.
DH will have a small FERS pension and we will sell our primary home when he retires so we wont have any debts. My 72t distribution and his pension will easily cover our expenses and may even allow funding our rIRAs once the primary home is sold. We won't need to touch his TSP yet.
We also have a CD ladder that can cover several years of expenses.


I just hope this won't be a long bear market!
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:05 PM   #71
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My advisor sounded like he had done a lot of talking people down from the ledge yesterday.
Those people sure weren't invested in Oct 1987. They never would have stayed on the ledge long enough to talk down.

Totally turn off CNBC.
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:17 PM   #72
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Hopefully everyone ran Firecalc prior to this downturn.
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:52 PM   #73
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I am worry wart by nature. I went from F/T work to R/E to Semi E/R in 2008 at age 51, and worked PT for the next 7 years for many reasons, insecurity being one of them. The organization I worked for decided it wanted to take two P/T positions and make one F/T position. I did not want to go back to work F/T. I became E/R at age 58 this past August.

It was easy, circumstances made the decision for me. Since then I don't watch the market everyday, I don't listen to the talking heads on CNBC and elsewhere. I have a plan, I am diversified in my investments and my annual spending without work is about 3.2% of my portfolio as it was August.

Oddly enough I am not nervous, I don't like it but what can I do, the decision is made and I have had a great 4+ months of ER. I like it! Now technically I still work a little P/T, not much, I got hired as a guide by a motorcycle tour company. I did one 2 week tour with them in Sept, and hope to do two tours this year. Paid travel. I thoroughly enjoyed my time off in the Fall hunting. I thought I would be bored by now at this time of year living in New England. I thought I would do a little on demand courier driving. I haven't done that, I like E/R.

On NYD I caught up with an old friend I had not seen in awhile. I found out his wife is near death, she is in her early 50's, breast cancer matastisized throughout her body.

As I head towards my 59th birthday in April I realize it's only a few short years and it won't be an early retirement anymore. I intend to enjoy this time. I earned it. The market is going to go down and the market will go up. I believe very much I will be fine and I fully embrace the idea that my time right now while I have my health is too important to spend it worrying about stuff that is completely out of my control.

Age, and the wisdom that came with it combined with the death of loved ones and friends has sent my inner worry wart packing.
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:52 PM   #74
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I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:59 PM   #75
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I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.
That's nice, but what if it's different this time?

(sorry I could not resist).
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Old 01-07-2016, 05:14 PM   #76
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The market is going to go down and the market will go up. I believe very much I will be fine and I fully embrace the idea that my time right now while I have my health is too important to spend it worrying about stuff that is completely out of my control.

Age, and the wisdom that came with it combined with the death of loved ones and friends has sent my inner worry wart packing.
+1

I love your post! You sure seem to have your priorities straight.
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Old 01-07-2016, 05:21 PM   #77
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I was talking to some young people in my profession (dentistry) about 1 year ago. They all had graduated from school AFTER 2008, and one of them said "why should I be in bonds when I know I can make 10-15% every year in the stock market", and "My risk tolerance is very high"...I told him that "you really don't know what your 'risk tolerance' is until you see your nestegg drop 40% in a week"...Now here I am, a solid Bernstein AA guy, the sun is just rising on my retirement and sunavabeetch, I'm being tested right out of the gate.

As someone early on said, "Double Stoli in the rocks, and keep 'em coming!"
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Old 01-07-2016, 05:25 PM   #78
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I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.
Good idea.

I like to cope with uncertain market conditions in similar ways.

For example: I withdrew my 2016 spending money from my portfolio on January 1st and computed the WR as a percentage of my portfolio value as of 12/31. That's pretty normal for people to do, but I must admit that I also computed what my WR would have been, as a percentage of my 2008-2009 lowest portfolio value.

(3.99%, so I guess I am OK for a while.)
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Old 01-07-2016, 10:45 PM   #79
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We are investors, not traders. IMO, any assessment of returns over a period of less than 3 years is a fools errand.

Quicken says my 3 and 5 year returns are in the 8% range, which I think is outstanding and much more than the assumption in my retirement plan. My portfolio is 19% more than when I retired at the end of 2011 and 22% more than what I projected it would be at this time back when I retired.

Unfortunately, I only have two lots in my taxable accounts with losses and they total a whopping $400.

So the glass is definitely more than half full.
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Old 01-07-2016, 11:06 PM   #80
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I have already had a downturn (oil and gas). If there is another downturn somewhere else, we may be eating seed corn, but we will still be OK. I still have a Plan B and a Plan C, both of which involve uprooting--one closer than the other.

For work in my profession, I have always been able to find work when my peers could not because of breadth, flexibility and a packed suitcase. I can still do that, but these days (gettin' old, y'hear?), I prefer to be home at night, so I can push a broom if necessary.

Also, there is really good box wine here.

P.S., I always have in mind that two dear friends died in 2015. It changes the perspective.
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