Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-07-2016, 01:12 PM   #61
Recycles dryer sheets
Llep's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by lem1955 View Post
Maybe CD rates will bounce up a little in a few months!
Good luck! It seems like I have been thinking/hoping this exact same thing for a few years now!
Llep is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-07-2016, 01:16 PM   #62
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Christine View Post
By all means - let Mr Farber sell all he wants!

I'm not that relaxed either - struggling with some big issues - like hot chocolate or tea with my afternoon snack?

Well I have to admit, I am a "market chicken". The year isn't a trading week old, and I am already up. In fact on this crazy day most of my issues are all up. This is definitely the environment for investment grade preferred stocks and people continue to bid them up for safety.
I just don't have the stomach for losses, and I respect all that can. Heck I don't even use my investment money being a pensioner and couldn't handle the losses. I just clip my mostly 6-7% coupons and move on.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 01:16 PM   #63
Moderator Emeritus
M Paquette's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Portland
Posts: 4,946
Generally, I find that taking a nap is the best way to handle it. Or playing with kittens, if available.

If it happens to be mid-February, I check my asset allocation, and if things are outside of the (very broad) bands I use, I'll move enough around to bring the allocation back inside the bands. I had to do that in 2009 and 2012, I think.

Of course, it's also what I do in a market upturn...
M Paquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 01:43 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,309
Just retired in August and I am still trying to figure out how to manage AA (70% equities), rebalancing and cash flow for retirement. I am also a bucketeer with a lumpy CD ladder that should satisfy my needs for any reasonable length of downturn. I watch and read a lot but just don't react without due diligence. I am sleeping great and enjoying ER.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 01:43 PM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
I look at the market everyday, and more than once, whether it's up or down. The only time I don't is when I am traveling and have no internet access. That does not mean that I trade everyday.

Went upstairs to start laying down the laminate floor in a small bedroom. The Dow was down 200 points. Just went back down to have a break for lunch. While eating my nice hot bowl of French onion soup, hit refresh on the laptop screen. Dow is down 440 points. Nice!

And what is this? My put option limit order hit. Son of a gun! I still have plenty of cash to cover put options like this, but perhaps I should slow down. Man! Exciting time again so soon after 2008?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 01:52 PM   #66
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Beaverton
Posts: 1,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
Don't let it scare you. I too am a recent FIRE. I struggle with money jitters too. It's normal.

I keep reminding myself that having the cash for X number of years of basic expenses will get me through most "correction" and "recession" phases and maybe even a DEPRESSION phase.

That X factor is different for everyone. For some it's a year. For others it's 2-3 years and for yet others it's even more...7 or 8 years in cash not unheard of.

For me I'm about 20 years out from an SS check, and no pension what so ever. Plus hopefully a long many year retirement ... So by comparison I'm on the riskier end of the spectrum.

I like holding on the longer end of basic cash needs.. I hate bonds these days so my bonds are cash ...

But I need equities to offset inflation and best to snap up bargain when the market falls 15-20 percent. History says it pays off most of the time.

Without new money, you can't do that other than reducing cash- so just sit tight.
+1
Bir48die is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 02:00 PM   #67
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,008
I just threw $4K into Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund in a 401K Roth as I need to fill it for 2015.

Might not be the lowest point this year, but I'll dribble more in later, and nobody knows it could be the lowest point this year...
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 02:37 PM   #68
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
I am 1/4 in cash right now (it was 1/6 14 months ago), cash for at least the next 2 years or so (for other reasons). Just now recharacterizing 3 Roths and don't plan to buy anything for a little while. Reassessing my AA.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 02:39 PM   #69
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
I lived through 1987, 2000 and 2008 fully invested and it worked out.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 02:45 PM   #70
Full time employment: Posting here.
Dog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 880
UGH....in my second year of retirement and DH will retire in May. I started a 72t last February and hate seeing my IRA balance decline as I am wired as an accumulator. I may revisit the funds that are being drawn from and have more drawn from the bond fund during this equity decline.
DH will have a small FERS pension and we will sell our primary home when he retires so we wont have any debts. My 72t distribution and his pension will easily cover our expenses and may even allow funding our rIRAs once the primary home is sold. We won't need to touch his TSP yet.
We also have a CD ladder that can cover several years of expenses.


I just hope this won't be a long bear market!
__________________
"Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?" - Mary Oliver
Dog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 03:05 PM   #71
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,960
Quote:
Originally Posted by misshathaway View Post

My advisor sounded like he had done a lot of talking people down from the ledge yesterday.
Those people sure weren't invested in Oct 1987. They never would have stayed on the ledge long enough to talk down.

Totally turn off CNBC.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 03:17 PM   #72
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Marco island
Posts: 815
Hopefully everyone ran Firecalc prior to this downturn.
Gatordoc50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 03:52 PM   #73
Full time employment: Posting here.
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
I am worry wart by nature. I went from F/T work to R/E to Semi E/R in 2008 at age 51, and worked PT for the next 7 years for many reasons, insecurity being one of them. The organization I worked for decided it wanted to take two P/T positions and make one F/T position. I did not want to go back to work F/T. I became E/R at age 58 this past August.

It was easy, circumstances made the decision for me. Since then I don't watch the market everyday, I don't listen to the talking heads on CNBC and elsewhere. I have a plan, I am diversified in my investments and my annual spending without work is about 3.2% of my portfolio as it was August.

Oddly enough I am not nervous, I don't like it but what can I do, the decision is made and I have had a great 4+ months of ER. I like it! Now technically I still work a little P/T, not much, I got hired as a guide by a motorcycle tour company. I did one 2 week tour with them in Sept, and hope to do two tours this year. Paid travel. I thoroughly enjoyed my time off in the Fall hunting. I thought I would be bored by now at this time of year living in New England. I thought I would do a little on demand courier driving. I haven't done that, I like E/R.

On NYD I caught up with an old friend I had not seen in awhile. I found out his wife is near death, she is in her early 50's, breast cancer matastisized throughout her body.

As I head towards my 59th birthday in April I realize it's only a few short years and it won't be an early retirement anymore. I intend to enjoy this time. I earned it. The market is going to go down and the market will go up. I believe very much I will be fine and I fully embrace the idea that my time right now while I have my health is too important to spend it worrying about stuff that is completely out of my control.

Age, and the wisdom that came with it combined with the death of loved ones and friends has sent my inner worry wart packing.
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 03:52 PM   #74
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lisa99's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,440
I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.
Lisa99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 03:59 PM   #75
Full time employment: Posting here.
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lisa99 View Post
I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.
That's nice, but what if it's different this time?

(sorry I could not resist).
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 04:14 PM   #76
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
The market is going to go down and the market will go up. I believe very much I will be fine and I fully embrace the idea that my time right now while I have my health is too important to spend it worrying about stuff that is completely out of my control.

Age, and the wisdom that came with it combined with the death of loved ones and friends has sent my inner worry wart packing.
+1

I love your post! You sure seem to have your priorities straight.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 04:21 PM   #77
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
I was talking to some young people in my profession (dentistry) about 1 year ago. They all had graduated from school AFTER 2008, and one of them said "why should I be in bonds when I know I can make 10-15% every year in the stock market", and "My risk tolerance is very high"...I told him that "you really don't know what your 'risk tolerance' is until you see your nestegg drop 40% in a week"...Now here I am, a solid Bernstein AA guy, the sun is just rising on my retirement and sunavabeetch, I'm being tested right out of the gate.

As someone early on said, "Double Stoli in the rocks, and keep 'em coming!"
HadEnuff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 04:25 PM   #78
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lisa99 View Post
I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.
Good idea.

I like to cope with uncertain market conditions in similar ways.

For example: I withdrew my 2016 spending money from my portfolio on January 1st and computed the WR as a percentage of my portfolio value as of 12/31. That's pretty normal for people to do, but I must admit that I also computed what my WR would have been, as a percentage of my 2008-2009 lowest portfolio value.

(3.99%, so I guess I am OK for a while.)
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 09:45 PM   #79
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,263
We are investors, not traders. IMO, any assessment of returns over a period of less than 3 years is a fools errand.

Quicken says my 3 and 5 year returns are in the 8% range, which I think is outstanding and much more than the assumption in my retirement plan. My portfolio is 19% more than when I retired at the end of 2011 and 22% more than what I projected it would be at this time back when I retired.

Unfortunately, I only have two lots in my taxable accounts with losses and they total a whopping $400.

So the glass is definitely more than half full.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2016, 10:06 PM   #80
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
I have already had a downturn (oil and gas). If there is another downturn somewhere else, we may be eating seed corn, but we will still be OK. I still have a Plan B and a Plan C, both of which involve uprooting--one closer than the other.

For work in my profession, I have always been able to find work when my peers could not because of breadth, flexibility and a packed suitcase. I can still do that, but these days (gettin' old, y'hear?), I prefer to be home at night, so I can push a broom if necessary.

Also, there is really good box wine here.

P.S., I always have in mind that two dear friends died in 2015. It changes the perspective.
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Your behavior during latest market downturn ? frayne FIRE and Money 96 11-07-2014 10:53 AM
Has the downturn stopped anyone from ER nun FIRE and Money 44 01-23-2008 05:47 AM
Cash is king in the real estate downturn Orchidflower FIRE and Money 19 01-17-2008 09:07 PM
Japan - Their 20 year Downturn and their Investors............. Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 30 10-31-2005 03:13 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:42 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.