How is the credit bubble affecting your city?

I agree with Ha and Want2Retire.....price it to sell and get rid of it. The more attractive the price, the more response you will get. It's always good to end one chapter of your life before starting another.
Ifs its a first mortgage, walk away, leave the mortgage company to
take the loss, they're the ones who let you get into the mess.
So, you'll have bad credit for 10 years and won't be able to get a
loan, that might be a good thing.
TJ
 
Ifs its a first mortgage, walk away, leave the mortgage company to
take the loss, they're the ones who let you get into the mess.
So, you'll have bad credit for 10 years and won't be able to get a
loan, that might be a good thing.
TJ

Actually I bought my house 10 years ago using a 30 year fixed mortgage with 20% downpayment which I could pay off today with cash I have on hand. I believe the house has appreciated enough that even with the current downturn, I will come out ahead with some capital gains. I was leaning towards paying off the mortgage until a job relocation came on the horizon, so I want to have as much cash as possible, keeping the powder dry so to speak. I am looking forward to paying for a house in Sacramento (where I'm relocating to) in cash hopefully when the market bottoms out in the next 2 years.
 
I am looking forward to paying for a house in Sacramento (where I'm relocating to) in cash hopefully when the market bottoms out in the next 2 years.

Just curious-but why do you specify that you want to pay cash for your new house? Who knows what mortgage rates will be- they may be 4 1/2%. Would you still want to pay cash?

There have been a lot of discussions on this forum about paying off a mortgage in retirement with good points both ways. But it seems to me that the decision is largely contingent on conditions, both in the mortgage and housing markets and in ones's own financial picture.

Personally, I would almost always borrow whenever a low fixed rate were available, even in retirement. Holding down a job- remove the "almost".

Ha
 
I have noticed something new in my mid-size, southern city in the past month or so. Red "for sale at auction" signs in front of foreclosed houses are popping up all over the place (even in good neighborhoods), houses are sitting for months and months on the market (even in good school districts), stores don't seem to be as busy as they used to (many stores have closed recently)... What's more, I start seeing people trying the sell their luxury cars (newer SUVs, lexuses, jags, maybe 2-3 years old tops) on their own. They park them on their lawn with "for sale" signs... I've seen people do that before with old beaters, but not with perfectly good looking, luxury cars.
The curious thing is that my town has a vibrant economy, fairly high wages (due to a highly qualified work force), low cost of living, very low unemployment and a large number of newcomers every year which helps the city grow at a good pace. The RE market is supposedly healthy (if you talk to realtors) but it does not feel this way. So even though I live in a city with a healthy economy, in the past few months, I have seen signs that more and more people are heel over their heads with debt.
Do you see the same thing where you live?

maybe overtime went down...
maybe bonuses weren't paid

symptom of creidt bubble for sure.

10 years ago+ I saw this when I worked at Xerox as a manufacturing engineer. mandatory overtime... people would be getting time and half and buying boats, sports cars etc...

then when overtime was cut, for sale signs on the bulletin boards were common place.
 
Just curious-but why do you specify that you want to pay cash for your new house? Who knows what mortgage rates will be- they may be 4 1/2%. Would you still want to pay cash?

While nobody knows what the rates will be at that time, my decision will largely be based on "peace of mind" considerations rather than a purely financial calculation. Anyway, thanks for your input.
 
Sad times in Michigan...

Curious.

What is going on in Detroit? Auto worker layoffs? Loans to low-income immigrants?

500 Top foreclosure zip codes - Jun. 19, 2007

Just looked at the list -- all of the Detroit zips are within the city limits and many are in the lowest income neighborhoods of Detroit. The unemployment rate in Detroit is > 8% (I think the last number I saw was 8.2%)

Jobs are flying out of Michigan, along with a lot of talented workers.For example, Chrysler, the largest auto employer of Detroit workers, is in the midst of cutting 16% of its workforce -- 11,000 hourly jobs plus 2,000 salaried workers.

Here's how the University of Michigan's economists put it:

Michigan's job-loss streak is the longest since Great Depression

ANN ARBOR, Mich.—Michigan has endured six straight years of job losses and the next two years will see even more—the longest stretch of employment loss in the state since the Great Depression, say University of Michigan economists.

Since mid-2000 to the end of this year, the state will have lost 336,000 jobs and it will lose another 33,000 jobs in the next two years, they say. Most of these losses are in manufacturing.

"The Michigan economy is fighting its way through a long stretch of stormy weather, trying to ride out the turbulence generated by the ongoing restructuring among the domestic automakers," said U-M economist George Fulton. "With Big Three market share continuing to decline for 2007 and 2008, auto industry downsizing will not have run its course by mid-2007.

The state will lose more than 40,000 manufacturing jobs over the course of this year, nearly 30,000 next year and another 24,000 during 2008, they say. The auto industry will account for about 70 percent of these manufacturing job losses.

"The state economy reflects not simply the fortunes of the auto industry as a whole, but in particular, the well-being of the traditional domestic producers, or Big Three—General Motors, Ford and the Chrysler Group," Crary said. "From 2001 to 2005, the Big Three's market share plummeted 7 percentage points. The situation went from bad to worse this year as soaring gasoline prices had consumers tightening their belts and focusing on fuel economy. It now appears that Big Three market share will plunge by nearly 3 percentage points this year."

Despite the continued bleak outlook for manufacturing employment, Michigan's economy will add jobs in other sectors—namely, in services, the forecast shows. After adding more than 20,000 jobs this year, service industries will gain nearly 13,000 jobs during 2007 and just under 17,000 during 2008.

Almost half of these gains will occur in private education and health services, the only major industry to have grown throughout the extended downturn in the Michigan economy. About 40 percent of the additions will come from professional and business services and from leisure and hospitality services over the next two years.

In all, the U-M economists say that in any analysis of Michigan's economic prospects, the "elephant in the room" clearly is the well-being of the Big Three automakers.

"The risks associated with the auto industry remind us of how vulnerable the Michigan economy is to the uncertainties that lately seem to define the domestic companies," Fulton said. "These troubled times in Michigan stress how critical it is for these companies to get their houses in order.
"More to the point, though, these troubled times scream out for a strategy of investing in other activities, activities that show promise in the new economy. The issue is being discussed frequently these days in Michigan, and a fairly compelling argument has been made for investing in a more highly skilled work force and growing the knowledge-based economy. Such a strategy would be in step with the evolving new economy, recognizing that regardless of the fate of the domestic auto industry, we are not going back to the good old days."
 
yikes, on walk last night found two more houses for sale in my area and one has an "auction" sign on it. the other one has two new jaguars parked in the driveway (dopes). that makes a total of about 6 homes for sale (two with just a sale by owner sign out front) out of the over 200 homes in my immediate area.
 
I just got a postcard from a local Realtor, informing me that a house on the street has sold. I live in a blue collar neighborhood, with many of the houses built in the '50s.

----------------------------
Beds: 2 | Bath: 1 | Square Feet: 952
Price Per Square Foot: $76
Listed: July 26, 2007
$72,500
----------------------------

It says listed July 26, but it's been empty for more than a year (has been maintained) since the owner died of old age.
 
Curious.

What is going on in Detroit? Auto worker layoffs? Loans to low-income immigrants?

500 Top foreclosure zip codes - Jun. 19, 2007


There was a very good profile of the Detroit problems a few days ago on Yahoo....will post link if I can find. It profiled one block of a fairly upscale neighborhood which I am familiar with. It seemed like most the homeowners had no clue what they had done......I recall the loan terms to be as much as 8.75% BEFORE resetting to >12%! Even with that, the loan amounts were fairly small (~$250k), so it did not add up in my mind. One guy was a 42 yo "investment banker"...........with a subprime loan:confused: I think its likely than many of these folks should have qualified for better loans.

Here's the link:'Subprime' Aftermath: Losing the Family Home - WSJ.com
 
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Thanks for the link. The story's an accurate description of the problem. Sub-prime loans, along with disappearing jobs, pretty much sums up what's happening to a once thriving city.

When I was a kid, I remember my parents taking us for Sunday drives down Outer Drive (the street in the article) to show us where "all the rich folks lived."

Sad, sad, sad...
 
Brave New Economy

Is it possible for a state or a nation to prosper in an economy based increasingly on services?
 
Is it possible for a state or a nation to prosper in an economy based increasingly on services?

Well, you've hit upon a very key discussion point in economic circles. I'd recommend a new thread about this.

My answer, "yes, but it depends on which services are predominate". FWIW, some of the most prosperous countries in the world do very little to no manufacturing, Switzerland and Monaco come to mind as examples. Or within the US, think Aspen.
 
Well, you've hit upon a very key discussion point in economic circles. I'd recommend a new thread about this.

My answer, "yes, but it depends on which services are predominate". FWIW, some of the most prosperous countries in the world do very little to no manufacturing, Switzerland and Monaco come to mind as examples. Or within the US, think Aspen.
I think there must be a certain conditions for a prosperous service economy. Some are: Relatively small country and small population. A history of letting both foreigners and citizens mind their own business. An intelligent well educated population. A certain degree of informed practicality in the political process. Very good immigration and border control. Low crime rates and low governmental and business corruption. (Contrast the service economies of Bermuda or The Bahamas to Jamaica or Haiti or Dominica.)

The US has energy needs alone that doom us to needing a lot of energy and natural resources. If we can't produce them, we need to go to war to "facilitate their sourcing". So we get what we have now, a nation going down the tubes with what might be a terminal disease.

Ha
 
I think there must be a certain conditions for a prosperous service economy. Some are: Relatively small country and small population. A history of letting both foreigners and citizens mind their own business. An intelligent well educated population. A certain degree of informed practicality in the political process. Very good immigration and border control. Low crime rates and low governmental and business corruption. (Contrast the service economies of Bermuda or The Bahamas to Jamaica or Haiti or Dominica.)

The US has energy needs alone that doom us to needing a lot of energy and natural resources. If we can't produce them, we need to go to war to "facilitate their sourcing". So we get what we have now, a nation going down the tubes with what might be a terminal disease.

Ha

Well, for a nation going down the tubes there are plenty of people clamoring to move here, taking incredible risks to do so I might add.
 
Well, for a nation going down the tubes there are plenty of people clamoring to move here, taking incredible risks to do so I might add.

Have you visited the places where they are coming from? Have you seen their homes, what their lives are like?

Think these folks are going to make USA more like Monaco and Switzerland?

Ya shur, you betcha!

Ha
 
Curious.

What is going on in Detroit? Auto worker layoffs? Loans to low-income immigrants?

500 Top foreclosure zip codes - Jun. 19, 2007

probably what is going on there is the same thing going on in the rest of the country. i wouldn't say just loans to low-income immigrants. but from what i see from the zip codes of the florida contingent, foreclosures are hitting hard low-income of all sorts.

if i get a dose of ambition flowing through my veins any time soon i'm going to study further and even survey areas hardest hit in south florida. from what i've seen so far from a quick glance at cnn's top 500 foreclosures, the list is both deceiving and telling.

it is telling in that a quick map study of zip codes in areas of which i am familiar show that these are mostly long-established "black areas" of town, where many african americans reside. i hope i am not being offensive with the term "black area of town" and feel free to correct me, but what i have noticed since i was a kid is how very racially segmented florida (& likely the rest of this country?) is. i remember when i was a kid how i didn't understand why even the middle class areas where so divided. i always thought that money was money. but often it seems it isn't.

the part deceiving involves how cnn lists fort lauderdale 7 times when only 3 of those 7 zip codes are actually within the city of fort lauderdale. the majority are in other cities.

33313 is lauderhill
33319 is lauderdale lakes
33321 is tamarac
33351 is sunrise

of the three correctly identified zip codes

33311 is a lower economic class black area west of i-95
33309 is a lower economic class mostly white area bordering the executive airport
33312 is a somewhat mixed transition area (transition in economic, not racial status) on the w side of i-95 & n side of i-595 at the nw corner of fort lauderdale hollywood international airport.

just wanted to verify my preliminary assessment and this is what i find according to city data.com Stats about all US cities - relocation info, maps, race, income, photos, education, crime, weather, houses, etc.

of the fort lauderdale areas mentioned on the list:

33312
White population: 25,975
Black population: 15,512

33309
White population: 18,849
Black population: 11,446

33311
White population: 7,693
Black population: 53,226

my zip code which did not make the list?
White population: 10,675
Black population: 649

so at first glance it seems a clear cut black & white issue. but then on further study of the mislabeled areas which are not in fort lauderdale:

33313
White population: 13,468
Black population: 38,624

33319
White population: 24,940
Black population: 14,512

33321
White population: 33,740
Black population: 2,907

33351
White population: 22,499
Black population: 5,938

perhaps the statisticians here will be able to illuminate further if there is any pattern pertaining to race. when i get a chance i will check out the other zip codes mentioned by cnn.
 
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Is it possible for a state or a nation to prosper in an economy based increasingly on services?

I think that the existence of this Board is an argument that there is a shift in that direction. I think that many people on this board are interested in ER because they now value experiences, which frequently have a service component, more than accumulating more stuff, e.g. buying manufactured consumer goods.

MB
 
In the USA, the services are going to be, by an overwhelming percentage, in traditionally low-paying fields, e.g. food prep, cleaning, low-level retail & clerical.

We need a lot more cooks than CMOS design engineers and the engineers can be in Bangalore at that.
 
I think there must be a certain conditions for a prosperous service economy. Some are: Relatively small country and small population. A history of letting both foreigners and citizens mind their own business. An intelligent well educated population. A certain degree of informed practicality in the political process. Very good immigration and border control. Low crime rates and low governmental and business corruption. (Contrast the service economies of Bermuda or The Bahamas to Jamaica or Haiti or Dominica.)

The US has energy needs alone that doom us to needing a lot of energy and natural resources. If we can't produce them, we need to go to war to "facilitate their sourcing". So we get what we have now, a nation going down the tubes with what might be a terminal disease.

Ha

we have enough natural resources for ourselves, and then there is Canada. we just choose enviromentalism and to let others pollute their nations for a few $$$
 
Is it possible for a state or a nation to prosper in an economy based increasingly on services?

why not? 20 years ago to listen to music you had to buy a CD. today it's a service to download it into your Ipod. Wikipedia is a replacement service for physical encyclopedias

i bet if you think about it, there are a lot of services that are simply replacements for physical products of past decades. a lot of things like consumer electronics might be made in China, but the supply chain is complicated
 
In the USA, the services are going to be, by an overwhelming percentage, in traditionally low-paying fields, e.g. food prep, cleaning, low-level retail & clerical.

We need a lot more cooks than CMOS design engineers and the engineers can be in Bangalore at that.


I think you are vastly underestimating the ability of American firms to export services and get very well compensated for them.

Take something like the iPOD, AFAIK they are all manufactured in China,but virtually all of the profits flow back to Cupertino based Apple. The money goes to pay not only the design engineer responsible for the electronics, but the packaging folks who figure out the new color schemes, the human factors engineer who make it easy to use, the lawyers who ink the deals with recording companies, the marketing folks who create demand for iPOD among aspring Yuppies in India, and China. In fact, my understanding is that revenue of iPOD sales in countries like China and India exceeds the manufacturer cost Apple has paid..

I've invested money in start-up that is creating off shore tax shelters for Japanese business. You see American style agresssive tax avoidance is pretty much unheard of in Japan. So it has taken a team of American bankers, lawyers, and tax accountants to convince the Japanese companies they can save billions to set up operation in countries with low-tax rates. A huge amount of the tax revenue that Japan loses will flow to these American "service workers" And hopefully to this investor :cool:

You are probably right that most of the service jobs will be relatively low pay. However E-Bay retailer is a job description which didn't exist a decade ago, doesn't require a degree and can be extremely lucrative and it is basicallly a service job.
 

I guess this article reinforces my local experience here in Raleigh NC:

"Raleigh prices jumped 8.3%." Slightly less than the 8-something percent increase in Seattle and San Jose, CA.

Our neighborhood email list has been abuzz lately with news of houses selling quickly. I have seen multiple places put up for sale signs early in the week with "OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY 2-4 PM" notices. Then later in the week the "OPEN HOUSE" signs come down. Shortly thereafter, the "CONTRACT PENDING" sign goes up. As it turns out, they sold these houses in a few days before the open house could even be conducted. The prices haven't really skyrocketed, but there definitely seems to be a lot of demand. This is in a mid to lower end neighborhood where houses are $140,000-$180,000. Back in 2003 when I was house hunting, most places were selling in the $120,000-$150,000 range. Houses here are still affordable for working class families.

New construction seems to be occurring as fast as builders can throw up 4 walls and a roof.
 
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