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Old 04-13-2015, 12:51 PM   #41
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Less than a year. Was dramatic (loss of $97,000) but short lived.
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Old 04-13-2015, 01:53 PM   #42
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IIRC the market pundits were predicting something like 7-10+ years to recover, but for me it was about 2 years.
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Old 04-13-2015, 02:02 PM   #43
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I'm curious how you determined the recovery time for VWENX? When I pull up a price history chart it reached a high of $60.50 on 10/1/2007 and didn't hit that again until 1/1/2013 so it would seem it took more than 5 years to recover?
The price charts do not include the effects of dividend and cap gain distributions. You need to go to Morningstar for that.

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Less than a year. Was dramatic (loss of $97,000) but short lived.
$97K loss is not at all dramatic. In terms of dollars, my "loss" in the 2000-2003 stock rout was more than 6 times that. And when that coincided with the folding of the startups that I was involved with, that was dramatic. I took that down time to go to Europe for a vacation, before going back to figure what to do with the rest of my life.

Two years later, my portfolio regained and I felt confident enough to buy my 2nd home. Lucky? Yes. Fearless? Not quite.
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Old 04-13-2015, 02:08 PM   #44
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I can't answer this question precisely because my practice was to do my portfolio and net worth calculations once yearly on March 31. My March 31, 2009 values were down significantly from the year before and I recall the sickening feeling as when I looked at my sinking portfolios online. I probably had paper losses of about half a million. But I didn't sell anything, and by March 31, 2010 both portfolios and NW had exceeded the March 2008 values. Of course I was w*rking at the time, pumping money into my investment accounts on a regular basis.

As the carnage unfolded I started investing in real estate (which is now self sustaining), bought some precious metals certificates (which I have recently sold at a profit), and began checking my portfolios daily, as the numbers were less shocking that way. I bought equities as the market passed its nadir, and also began stockpiling cash and building GIC ladders in preparation for ER. They help me sleep at night and if we have another crash, I can wait it out. I'm also spending considerably less in ER.
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Old 04-13-2015, 03:02 PM   #45
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The price charts do not include the effects of dividend and cap gain distributions. You need to go to Morningstar for that.
Ah! Okay. So if I were living off those distributions and not reinvesting them, the VWENX price chart would be reflective of my situation and it would have taken a bit more than 5 years to recover?

(I'm looking at what those distributions were for that period of time and I'm confident they would have covered my buckle-down-it's-a-recession living expenses and I wouldn't have had to sell any shares.)
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Old 04-13-2015, 03:10 PM   #46
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That's correct. If you can live off the dividends of your investments (currently 2.50% for Wellington, and 2.97% for Wellesley), then it is a lot safer. Quite a few posters here do that.
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Old 04-13-2015, 04:13 PM   #47
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Let's look at the S&P from top in 10/2007 to bottom in 3/2009. Your $1 became 46 cents. What if the next time it will stay down there for a few years or a decade, as it had done before? And for young ER's living off their stash, and who are still a decade or two from SS? Buy, buy, buy? With what money?

Heh heh heh...
For short time periods I take the ostrich approach and simply don't look at the news, and avoid looking at my brokerage statements / update my net worth. But a multi-year decline/stagnation scares the heck out of me even though we have over 10 years expenses in bonds/cash.
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Old 04-13-2015, 05:17 PM   #48
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Just look at Quicken, and it says 9 years in bonds and cash for me. But if I use some of that to "buy, buy, buy" when stocks are low, then it's not going to be 9 years.

I may just have to claim SS earlier than I want. And then, when Medicare comes in, I can use the health insurance money to buy cheap stocks.

If all that fails, well, as I often said, the NM wide blue sky awaits me and my motorhome.
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Old 04-13-2015, 10:06 PM   #49
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My peak was in June of 2008. I had a huge amount of NW in a single stock that peaked about then. I sold a small amount (20%) and that mean my portfolio didn't decline by more than low 7 digits. It was back within a year or two.

Why do you ask this, I 'm retired, I don't slice it that thin.
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Old 04-13-2015, 10:12 PM   #50
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About 5 years, May 31, 2008 to Sept 30, 2013, but we had to take some out at one point.
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Old 04-13-2015, 10:57 PM   #51
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65/35 split
Peaked Oct 2007
Bottomed Feb 2009
Recovered to Oct 2007 level on Mar 2010, dropped a bit then fully recovered Sep 2010
End to end, 3 years and I didn't adjust my AA during the whole time.

Now's its twice the Sep 2010 amount.
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Old 04-15-2015, 10:23 PM   #52
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It wasn't long, those free-range, organic Beaver Cheese Futures came back a lot faster then the market. So did I.
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Old 04-16-2015, 10:24 AM   #53
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It was about 3.5 yrs for me.
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Old 04-16-2015, 10:46 AM   #54
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Our lowest was in March of 2009. Net worth recovered completely sometime in 2012. So about 3 years. This is while living off investments and we paid cash for a new house in 2010.
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Old 04-17-2015, 07:13 PM   #55
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13 months. July '08 was the previous peak, which I passed August '09.

We were making regular contributions, however, throughout the drop and I had shifted the allocation more towards bonds in '06.
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Old 04-17-2015, 11:40 PM   #56
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I was contributing the whole time so I created a Quicken Portfolio Performance Report from 10/31/2007 to various dates until the IRR turned from negative to positive and it was about 3 1/2 years from the 2007 peak down to the bottom and back up to even after considering cash flow and reinvested dividends.
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Old 04-18-2015, 03:03 AM   #57
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I have no idea how long it took to recover because I was socking a lot of money into the market all the way down and all the way up. But the growth has been simply incredible in the bull market. I can't tell at which point I became "even" again, and honestly, I don't even know how I'd figure that out when calculating in the size of all my new contributions.


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Old 04-18-2015, 04:04 AM   #58
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I don't know how low my NW got in early 2009 since I didn't look. At the time I was just trying to keep my job in a collapsing construction industry.
In March 2009 I joined this forum and the market turned around. For this, I thank all of you.
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