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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 06:51 PM   #21
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

120.. Yes I will be alive in 2076 forthe tricentenial.

Then I will be on Good Morning america as the oldest person alive then drop dead on camera!
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 06:51 PM   #22
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Quote:
I'm not one of those folks that is afraid to get older. I worked at a nursing home during high school and college. Getting old is not a bad gig. Beats the alternative Wink
I keep hearing this.

I do not understand it.

How could not being be worse than being severely decrepit?
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 06:53 PM   #23
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Khan
How could not being be worse than being severely decrepit?
Don't knock it until you try it.

I'm pretty sure when I was 16 I thought I'd rather be dead than 40.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 07:06 PM   #24
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

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Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
i don't smoke. i don't drink. i exercise regularly. i don't eat meat. i don't drink soda. i never took life all that seriously and i retired at 48 so i've pretty much got the stress level of a well fed puppy. i have numerous relatives on mom's side who lived to their mid 90s. now that i am learning of my father's side, i already found two cousins in their mid to high 80s, one still working in movies and one an active chairman of his family biz. so unless i start treating my body badly, i don't see that i have much of a choice but to plan for a long & happy life.

Do you drive? I saw some calculation that if our bodies lasted indefinitely there would still be mortality from accidents often enough to have a population turnover over 300 years.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 07:23 PM   #25
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Quote from: Lusitan on Today at 03:38:29 PM
I read somewhere an argument that shooting for anything above an 80% success rate on your SWR wasn't worth it for some statistical reason



Perhaps what you read was this. I saw it and saved the quote long ago and refer to it when I start to get to anxious about if 90 , 95 or 99% probability is needed --

Regarding withdrawal & probability -

William J. Bernstein (author of The Efficient Asset Allocator and The Four Pillars) points out that aiming for a portfolio survivablity of more than 80% (based on Monte Carlo analysis) really doesn'’t improve your overall safety. In his article The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III: Eat, Drink, and Be Merry Bernstein says this:
"“The historically naïve investor (or academic) might consider reducing his monthly withdrawals to a very low level to maximize his chances of success. But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a fool’s errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons relative to the failure of banal financial planning."”





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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 07:35 PM   #26
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

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But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a fool’s errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons relative to the failure of banal financial planning."”
With all due respect to Mr. Bernstein, I'm not sure how my saving more money "increases the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons."

It seems to me that if I have only an 80% probability of success because the world might end and an 80% chance of success due to my financial plan I have a cumulative 64% chance of success. But if I increase the success of my financial plan to 100% by saving more, then my cumulative chance of success is 80%.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 07:55 PM   #27
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

I remember when I was a kid seeing Jack Benny on TV and he would always say he was 39. I in turn would say why would he want to be that old. Now I wish I was 39 again.

I just plan on living until I'm dead.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 08:19 PM   #28
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Quote:
I just plan on living until I'm dead.
can't argue with that!
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 08:19 PM   #29
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

100. Why the hell not? Hey, last time I was in Hawaii I met Elmer. 82 years old, I believe. He was flying gliders out of Dillingham on the North Shore. He told me the airline made him stop flying at 60, and this was how he was coping with that rule. Also, he had him a much younger Japanese girl friend. NORDS, you ever go for a ride in the gliders?
Anyway, Elmer is my hero..... He might make 100, too.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 09:32 PM   #30
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

I use 95 as input to calculator. My plan is to live forever, but the force of nature will put a stop on it.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 09:41 PM   #31
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

I assume we are going to live to 95.

If we planned for much younger and lived fit and well into our 90's we may well regret not saving more or RE'ing 3 years too soon. (55 is the top limit, we are 52 now).

If we die young then the kids get a windfall - so what, we won't be around to say "rats"
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 09:44 PM   #32
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Hmmmm, definitely something to think about...my birthfather (and his father) each died at 34 (heart attack) On the flip side, I freaked out about this when I found out...my physician told me his choloesterol was nothing like mine I am below 200 - and the good score is really high - and the women on his side are all living and healthy - but taking blood pressure meds, as I am (the VA monitors my cardiovascular system very well - have had most tests already performed) My birthmother died at 45 (pancreatic cancer).

Reading your posts makes me feel doomed! I take pretty good care of myself - and consider myself healthy- and hope to live a long life! (at least into my 80's)
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 09:45 PM   #33
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

**** it, spend it all today cause you might die tomorrow!
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 09:53 PM   #34
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

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Originally Posted by CybrMike
**** it, spend it all today cause you might die tomorrow!
You sound like my son

... and my brother ... and both my sisters.. :P

of course my son has yet to "get it" before he can "spend it". (he graduated a week ago, student debt, no job, usual stuff), but when he does "get it", he will enjoy spending it, and I won't nag one little bit - happiness is very important.

I was a "spend it" guy into my late 30's and don't regret it one little bit.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 09:59 PM   #35
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

92 highly likely. Quality of life uncertain.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 10:03 PM   #36
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

I don't intend to live past 80.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 10:12 PM   #37
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Low to mid 80's. (20 more years)
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 10:41 PM   #38
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer
When I do my own Monte Carlo SWR calculations, I model life expectancy as a Random Variable with an average and a variance. So the withdrawal period varies in each of thousands of runs that are used to compute the survival percentage. This captures much of the uncertainty in life expectancy as it relates to SWR.

Kramer
This doesn't really make sense to me. Surely your natural longevity and your investment performance are mathematically independent. If you run your simulations with longevity as a variable, then a bad investment environment coupled to a short lifespan looks like success. While a very good investment environment coupled to an extremely long lifespan looks like failure.

Monte carlo financial survival probabilities are difficult enought to understand in a prescriptive way. What does an 80% probability of success really mean to you? How much better is 90%? etc. The results become even more confusing by adding yet another variable. The meaning of an 80% success rate becomes even more nebulous.

It makes more sense to me to run multiple simulations of varying length and look at the SWR as a function of longevity directly. At least you know exactly what that one variable means.

I am really curious about your results. How do you decide what is acceptable?
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 10:47 PM   #39
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

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Originally Posted by Khan
I keep hearing this.

I do not understand it.

How could not being be worse than being severely decrepit?
I feel the same way. I really don't fear death. I'm not going to go out of my way to achieve it, but I don't fear it. On the other hand, I do really fear pain and suffering -- not just my own, but my friends' and family's. It seems to me that there will be a time when death is the best alternative for me.

For a couple of the moderators on this board, I need to add: Don't get your hopes up . . . that time hasn't come yet.
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?
Old 03-15-2007, 11:03 PM   #40
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Re: How long do you really plan to live?

My father died in his 50's, his father in his 80's and his father at 105. The way this progession works I've been dead for 20 years.
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