Gone4Good
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2005
- Messages
- 5,381
GLM said:But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a fool’s errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons relative to the failure of banal financial planning."”
With all due respect to Mr. Bernstein, I'm not sure how my saving more money "increases the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons."
It seems to me that if I have only an 80% probability of success because the world might end and an 80% chance of success due to my financial plan I have a cumulative 64% chance of success. But if I increase the success of my financial plan to 100% by saving more, then my cumulative chance of success is 80%.