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Old 01-20-2009, 03:23 PM   #21
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You must have taken your meds early today

I say three years.
24 hour program. BTW, I'll take your 3 year prediction right now. Can I lock it in?
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Old 01-20-2009, 03:35 PM   #22
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We will retest the bottom as long as public officials keep saying the 'sky has fallen, and is still falling'. 'The change' is an extreme unknown and will cause a new bottom, especially in financials, service, and health stocks. If the banks are tight with their money, the wealthy are too. They are all scared to spend. Some of us will see no trouble, these are those with recession proof jobs.

I do not expect the symptoms to change for two and one half years, that will be the beginning of the next politcal season. They have to stop then saying it is still getting worse to enable voters to continue loving them.

After six years of blame and name calling and not watching the theifs, did you expect any different? Get out of the market when best you can cuz it is done for the forseable future, other than cherry picking from the sideline. Take the best fixed income you can get.
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Old 01-20-2009, 03:56 PM   #23
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Hmmm - begining to look like 1966-1982 type yucky pucky - alas the Saint's never made the big time then either - I certainly hope Detroit doesn't beat them to the Superbowl.

The Norwegian widow continues to put her balanced index/a few good stocks - aka da SEC yield on full auto and spend her 3-5% SWR.

Heck I'm not getting any younger and somebody's got to spend and help the economy.

Handgrenade wise - I've been tap dancing in and around the 60/40 'policy portfolio' since 1977.

heh heh heh - 16th yr of ER.
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Old 01-20-2009, 04:33 PM   #24
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Hmmm - begining to look like 1966-1982

heh heh heh - 16th yr of ER.
Yup. Well let's see......the DOW is basically flat for the last 10 years. Many seem to think we could be in a funk for the next 5 years, maybe longer. This could easily top 1966-1982 before all said and done. Crap, I'm sliding back into my 2008 state of mind. NO!!!!!!!!! I won't go there! NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

Ok.........I'm better now.
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:08 PM   #25
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I will tell you which when it hits 14,000 again.
Ahhh, just what I thought - another poser.

Dow hits 14K on June 3, 2011, at 1:43 PM. Any more questions?
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Old 01-20-2009, 08:53 PM   #26
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What is your estimate as to how long it will take for the market to get back to it's high of 14,000. What do you base your answer on?
Secondly, if you are 5 years or less until FI / ER where are you focusing your savings / investment dollars over the next 5 years?
1. 8.365 years based on these assumptions: 7% APY, Dow is at bottom now @7,949.

2. I am trying to rebalance to 60/40 (equity/fixed-income) since the mix is at 40/60 now. In short, putting more money into equity.
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Old 01-21-2009, 08:14 AM   #27
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Here ya go, the NYTimes has taken all of the work -- and, of course, all the fun -- out of future-predicting with this easy-to-use tool:

Calculate Your Financial Comeback - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com

The accompanying article is here:

Optimism in Washington, but Pessimism on Wall St.

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Old 01-21-2009, 08:26 AM   #28
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It all depends when the next crop of suckers start to feel better and go on a sustained buying spree.

It will come back up, just needs time, how much time? Good question, Japan went wild and had its dead decade. We are in uncharted waters, life is shorter than you think, so just go out and enjoy.
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Old 01-21-2009, 09:19 AM   #29
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I don't know how long it will take, but I know how long it took a couple times in the past.

If you adjust the 1929 peak for inflation, it was 1956 before that price was matched. It was 1958 before it got that high "to stay". The 1966 peak was beaten temporarily in 1968, but it was 1992 before prices really recovered.

That looks like 27 and 28 years to recover, adjusting for inflation and ignoring dividends. I'd start the clock for this cycle in 2000, that means 2027.

But history never repeats itself, so I'm not making any predictions based on this. In particular, dividends were a bigger part of the returns in those days, the US position in the world economy is very different, we are expecting very slow workforce growth, and we seem to do everything more quickly these days. I just think it's interesting to note how long these cycles have been in the past.
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