Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
How long will it take to get to FIRE?
Old 11-28-2018, 10:52 AM   #1
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 12
How long will it take to get to FIRE?

What tools do you use to estimate the time it'll take you to FIRE? I've seen some online calculators but they are a little underwhelming (i.e. Networthify).
They assume a fixed return on investment and no asset allocation.

FIRECalc would be interesting to use given all the data embedded within, but it doesn't seem to be able to run in "when will I hit my magic number?" mode.

Does anyone have a go-to tool they use for projecting when they'll be able to pull the plug?
firedata is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-28-2018, 11:16 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,629
I built my own. It can start out very simple when I'm a long way from retirement, then get more complicated as I get closer.

Building it myself means that I know all the assumptions and shortcuts that go into it.
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 11:39 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
Simple one.

https://www.fidelity.com/calculators...ent-score-tool
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 12:07 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,866
I built my own Excel spreadsheet. But I also like the table in this article which assumes starting from zero and takes as input savings rate and spits out years to go:

The Shockingly Simple Math Behind Early Retirement
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 12:21 PM   #5
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
That was nice and simple. Not entirely what I'm looking for, but clear and nice design.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
I built my own Excel spreadsheet. But I also like the table in this article which assumes starting from zero and takes as input savings rate and spits out years to go:

The Shockingly Simple Math Behind Early Retirement
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent View Post
I built my own. It can start out very simple when I'm a long way from retirement, then get more complicated as I get closer.

Building it myself means that I know all the assumptions and shortcuts that go into it.
thanks, for the replies. That graph was from the networthify link I mentioned earlier. I have a simple spreadsheet as well. Excel has it's benefits but it can't really bring in historical data (or at least I don't have the skills to do so).

I really like FIRECalc's use of historical data to provide a range of results/outcomes. So, instead of success rate, you'd get something like 15% of the time it takes less than 10 years to FIRE and 20% of the time it takes more than 20 years. Something like that would be pretty nice.
firedata is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 02:56 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,232
Firecalc - Why not fool around with the different choice of years to retire section while achieving your desired success rate?
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 06:25 PM   #7
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 42
There's an iPhone/Android app call Pretirement that I really like precisely for this purpose:

https://pretirementfi.com

You tell it when you were born, how much you've got, and the magic number that you want to get to, and with a few assumptions about interest rates and such, it spits back

"Just keep working for ... 1 year 8 months 30 days and 9:35:03, until Aug 28, 2020, 6:48:45 AM"

Moreover, it keeps track of the changes in your assets over time, so you can see how your projected retirement date changes with them. It's been kind of a depressing ride this year.

It's all just fun, not anything I'd use to make critical decisions. I like tracking things like that.
Skeptic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 06:52 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Issaquah
Posts: 157
portfoliocharts Checkout their "Financial Independence" calculator. See this link for an example of the calculator with the 3 Fund AA. https://portfoliocharts.com/portfoli...und-portfolio/


This site is excellent and allows you to build your own AA or view most of the popular ones. You can then assess SWR, CAGR, and other importance components needed to determine when to FIRE based on your AA.
JackJester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2018, 07:00 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RunningBum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,202
Too unpredictable for me, until you get close. IMO, don't be wasteful with money, invest aggressively, save as much as you can, as you'll get there. Figure out your retirement budget and use Firecalc or 4% or 3.5%. If you're within 3-5 years, you can probably figure it out. If you're still 10-15 years out, I'm not sure what you'd do with a projected date, and it's not likely to hold anyway.
RunningBum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 07:32 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,879
Quote:
Originally Posted by firedata View Post
What tools do you use to estimate the time it'll take you to FIRE? I've seen some online calculators but they are a little underwhelming (i.e. Networthify).
They assume a fixed return on investment and no asset allocation.

FIRECalc would be interesting to use given all the data embedded within, but it doesn't seem to be able to run in "when will I hit my magic number?" mode.

Does anyone have a go-to tool they use for projecting when they'll be able to pull the plug?
Unless you're within a few years of your number, I don't think this exercise is worthwhile, assuming most of your net worth gains are coming from equities, which are volatile.

Simply save and invest as much as you can. You'll get there when you get there.
mrfeh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 07:38 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
38Chevy454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,354
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
Too unpredictable for me, until you get close. IMO, don't be wasteful with money, invest aggressively, save as much as you can, as you'll get there. Figure out your retirement budget and use Firecalc or 4% or 3.5%. If you're within 3-5 years, you can probably figure it out. If you're still 10-15 years out, I'm not sure what you'd do with a projected date, and it's not likely to hold anyway.

Agree, it is just en exercise until you get close. I mainly used the Fidelity retirement income planner from 10 years out, as at the time I was not too concerned with other sources.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.

You can't spend yourself to prosperity.

Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
38Chevy454 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 08:21 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skeptic View Post
There's an iPhone/Android app call Pretirement that I really like precisely for this purpose:

https://pretirementfi.com

You tell it when you were born, how much you've got, and the magic number that you want to get to, and with a few assumptions about interest rates and such, it spits back

"Just keep working for ... 1 year 8 months 30 days and 9:35:03, until Aug 28, 2020, 6:48:45 AM"

Moreover, it keeps track of the changes in your assets over time, so you can see how your projected retirement date changes with them. It's been kind of a depressing ride this year.

It's all just fun, not anything I'd use to make critical decisions. I like tracking things like that.
I just tried this one. It told me I could retire in 1969...when I was 6 years old. Technical error I am sure.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 08:59 AM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,864
Like many others, I built my own spreadsheets (that was so far back I started with a Big Chief tablet and #2 pencil and then converted to Multiplan when it came out ) It wasn't that hard back in the early days since I knew FIRE was a very long ways out and the numbers were a lot smaller. About the time I reached ~50 years of age, things started to take shape both in my mind and on my evolving custom spreadsheets. It was about then that I started getting serious about tracking things. Everything was done on spreadsheets and I felt very comfortable with what was going into the spreadsheets, the "assumptions" that were made (e.g. inflation rates) life expectancy, return rates, tax rates, RMD's, etc, etc.
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 09:26 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Major Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SF East Bay
Posts: 4,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
Too unpredictable for me, until you get close.

+1. If you're a fairly long way from being FI, there are too many potential variables that are hard to predict. In my case, I had extra sources of income in the form of being able to sell some houses during a property boom I wasn't expecting, and a modest inheritance. Like a few others have said, my plan was to save as much as I could (within reason) figuring that the more I was able to save, the sooner I'd get there.

Online calculators either didn't exist, or were in their infancy, when I started daydreaming about retiring. I just scribbled multiple imaginary scenarios involving different savings and interest rates. They were enough to satisfy me that I stood a fairly good chance of succeeding, if I did my best. That's all anyone can hope for when we're talking about the future anyway, isn't it?
__________________
Contentedly ER, with 3 furry friends (now, sadly, 1).
Planning my escape to the wide open spaces in my campervan (with my remaining kitty, of course!)
On a mission to become the world's second most boring man.

Major Tom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 09:38 AM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
Fidelity's Retirement Preparedness Calculator https://www.fidelity.com/calculators...uidance-center
is good for ballparking where you stand. It gives you a score. 100 = right on target. If above, you're better off, below and you have some work to do. All based on your target date and income preferences. It also back tests your AA.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 11:19 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,232
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
Fidelity's Retirement Preparedness Calculator https://www.fidelity.com/calculators...uidance-center
is good for ballparking where you stand. It gives you a score. 100 = right on target. If above, you're better off, below and you have some work to do. All based on your target date and income preferences. It also back tests your AA.
+1 still use it in retirement and will continue to do so. Combined with Firecalc, one gets historical sequence calculations in conjunction with the Monte Carlo calcs of Fidelity.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 11:42 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,031
Quote:
Originally Posted by firedata View Post
What tools do you use to estimate the time it'll take you to FIRE? I've seen some online calculators but they are a little underwhelming (i.e. Networthify).
They assume a fixed return on investment and no asset allocation.

FIRECalc would be interesting to use given all the data embedded within, but it doesn't seem to be able to run in "when will I hit my magic number?" mode.

Does anyone have a go-to tool they use for projecting when they'll be able to pull the plug?

I built my own, it looks at where my debt and equity should be at the end of each year, vs where I am currently in the year. I built a pivot visual to show me my expected vs actual progress. Currently with the latest market declines and daycare I got about 9% behind my target / expected. With one month to go, hoping for strong gains to push me closer.



I figure if I am within 5% of my expected come actual FIRE I can take the leap.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 11:56 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,629
Quote:
Originally Posted by firedata View Post
I really like FIRECalc's use of historical data to provide a range of results/outcomes. So, instead of success rate, you'd get something like 15% of the time it takes less than 10 years to FIRE and 20% of the time it takes more than 20 years. Something like that would be pretty nice.
What is "success" in this case? You've said that you're looking for a tool that will tell you when you can retire. Is success hitting a specific magic number?

Recognize that historic US stocks show a long wave.

You might discover in one scenario that you hit the magic number in 1966. That was kind of early because it was at the end of the post-war bull. But, of course, 1966 was a lousy year to retire because it was the start of a bear market.

Or, you might find that another scenario tells you that you couldn't retire in 1981, because your stocks have been hammered by the bear market. But, 1981 was a great year to retire, because it was the beginning of a long bull market.

I think I'd have to define success as surviving through my retirement. If I'm currently 10+ years away, I need to run a lot of years. Then, I start running out of historic data.

You haven't shared your current age or your hoped for retirement age. Those numbers may affect the tool you use.

-----

You mentioned getting data. Rober Shiller still has downloadable stock, cpi, and 10 year treasury data here: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Click on "US Stock Markets 1871 ...". That is already formatted as an Excel spreadsheet.
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 01:19 PM   #19
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 12
thank you everyone for the replies. I spent some more time on google to try and see if anything else out there met my needs. My google-fu was tested but I came up with a good set of keywords (when+can+I+retire+historical+data+calculator):

https://www.google.com/search?q=when...ata+calculator

the first result (engaging-data) is pretty much what I said I was looking for (uses historical data and is pretty straightforward to use and provides a range of results of when I can retire, and provides a nice set of graphs). Here is my graph:



It basically confirmed what I had guestimated previously, that I could probably retire early in a little over a decade, around 50ish, assuming all goes okay.
It's not perfect, as it doesn't include the option of adding expenses that may be temporary (college for the kids), but it's pretty close.
firedata is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2018, 01:25 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,879
Quote:
Originally Posted by firedata View Post
thank you everyone for the replies. I spent some more time on google to try and see if anything else out there met my needs. My google-fu was tested but I came up with a good set of keywords (when+can+I+retire+historical+data+calculator):

https://www.google.com/search?q=when...ata+calculator

the first result (engaging-data) is pretty much what I said I was looking for (uses historical data and is pretty straightforward to use and provides a range of results of when I can retire, and provides a nice set of graphs). Here is my graph:

4% withdrawal rate does not apply to early retirees.
mrfeh is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
calculator


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Survivor Benefit Plan-to take or not to take? aknowhow78 FIRE and Money 38 03-17-2017 11:20 PM
Medicare card -How long does it take to get card after applying via the web? template Health and Early Retirement 15 09-17-2016 06:20 PM
Big-Name Investors Get Long, Get Loud and Get Richer timo2 Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 2 08-16-2013 08:02 AM
how long did it take you to adjust/get into a nonwork routine? retiringat50 Life after FIRE 39 05-20-2008 11:44 AM
Poll: How long did it take you to save for FIRE RedHawk FIRE and Money 31 01-24-2007 02:19 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:28 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.