How low can it go?

David1961

David1961

Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Jul 26, 2007
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As of now, the Dow is at 12,298 and falling. What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?

To make it worthwhile, the winner will receive a $10 contribution to the tax-deferred variable annuity of his/her choice!!
grin.gif
 
David1961 said:
As of now, the Dow is at 12,298 and falling. What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?

To make it worthwhile, the winner will receive a $10 contribution to the tax-deferred variable annuity of his/her choice!!
grin.gif
Click to expand...

:2funny: It's really amazing what's happening, isn't it?

Pretty harrowing. I guess we just have to take it as it happens. Maybe tomorrow will be show a big upwards surge.
 
I think the average peak-to-trough during a recession is about 28%, which would be just a hair above DOW 10,000. Not a prediction, of course. Just the level of volatility you should expect from stocks.
 
Just remember that as it falls bargins can be had. The time to buy is when it falls not when it goes up. 10,750 is my answer and I'm sticking to it.
 
twaddle said:
I think the average peak-to-trough during a recession is about 28%, which would be just a hair above DOW 10,000. Not a prediction, of course. Just the level of volatility you should expect from stocks.
Click to expand...

Well gosh, that's not nearly as bad as I would have thought. We've already gone from fourteen thousand something to the low twelve thousands, so we're halfway there.

I was thinking more like 9821 or something like that. Yikes. A caveat - - remember my crystal ball usually functions more as an inverse predictor and never seems to be at all correct.
 
Want2retire said:
Well gosh, that's not nearly as bad as I would have thought. We've already gone from fourteen thousand something to the low twelve thousands, so we're halfway there.

I was thinking more like 9821 or something like that. Yikes. A caveat - - remember my crystal ball usually functions more as an inverse predictor and never seems to be at all correct.
Click to expand...

Well, I was just giving an average. I suppose if we really wanted to talk about how low it could go, I could give you my spiel about how Dec 2007 will be considered the start of our 20-year-long Japan-like period. ;)

The Chinese and Saudis have lots of cash. Let's just hope they start buying our assets soon.
 
Robert the Red said:
11,235

Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code, and if that's not an accurate predictor, what is?
Click to expand...

I hope to god this doesnt work, because one of my old zip codes backwards is 06710. Its not that good before you flip it backwards either.
 
I would buy the entire economy if it went to zero. :)
 
Actually, I'm nibbling away just to keep my stock allocation % in line. Might be nibbling for quite sometime. :-\
 
There's a ledge at 12110 that would represent the one year lows from last March. I expect at least a temporary bounce from that point, but if it goes through that, we may take out 11000 over the next few weeks.
 
Interesting, the S&P 500 has already blown past the March lows, but I didn't realize that the Dow was still hanging tough. You can probably thank MO for that. :)
 
wouldn't be surprised if the SP500 goes to around 800 before it's all over. remember that the big ARM reset still has months to go for this year and it takes 3-12 months for a home to go into foreclosure from the time the lien owner starts the process. there are probably a lot of future write offs only starting the process now that will be news in a few months.

this will cause spending for everything from servers to consumer items to drop. and we are still at a historic level of stocks being owned on margin so as prices drop a lot of people will have to sell
 
I see anything above 11000 as froth on the latte. Honestly, I don't see this as a "down" market.
 
You all probably know about this already, so I'm not going to start a new thread. But,

Bernanke Backs Stimulus Effort
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke endorsed a "quickly" implemented fiscal stimulus package, saying it would complement the Fed's efforts to provide monetary-policy insurance against an economic downturn.
The remarks came shortly after the White House said President Bush has decided that an economic stimulus package is needed to help the sagging economy. Mr. Bush has also agreed to delay his campaign to extend his signature tax cuts until after he and Congress negotiate an emergency package to jump-start the economy, according to a Republican familiar with internal White House deliberations. Mr. Bush will outline some of his plans Friday morning.

This is from Bernanke Backs Stimulus Effort - WSJ.com

Sounds like the cavalry is on the way!
 
Want2retire said:
Sounds like the cavalry is on the way!
Click to expand...

You'll have to excuse my lack of enthusiasm...

Interesting that the market apparently heard the folks over on Foggy Bottom were discussing a 'rescue package' and sold of in reaction to the news. Guess they thought things must really be bad if the pols are actually in agreement on something.

(Hey, my analysis of what moves the market is as good as anything the 'experts' dream up...;) )
 
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