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View Poll Results: What will be the Dow's lowest point in the next year
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12000
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13 |
11.61% |
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11500
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24 |
21.43% |
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11000
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16 |
14.29% |
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10500
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15 |
13.39% |
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10000
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14 |
12.50% |
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Oh My God
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30 |
26.79% |
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03-18-2008, 08:29 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
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How Low Dow?
With the Fed blowing air into a balloon with a hole in it how low do you think the Dow will go in the next year
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03-18-2008, 08:30 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Isn't How Low Dow a Chinese dish? 
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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03-18-2008, 08:32 PM
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#3
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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I'll go second, 9,000 if the meltdown occurs, 11,500 if we muddle through. Meltdown would be more bank failures and severe panic selling.
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03-18-2008, 08:33 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Nun, that's the trouble with being totally out of the market. No one knows whether it's going lower or going up from here...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-18-2008, 08:35 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,296
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Crap, you beat me to it!  
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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03-18-2008, 08:40 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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After much thought I think it could go lower but then again it may go higher.
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03-18-2008, 08:43 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Nun, that's the trouble with being totally out of the market. No one knows whether it's going lower or going up from here...
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Sure no one knows, but what do you think.....
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03-18-2008, 08:48 PM
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#8
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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I don't know, how low Dow now?
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03-18-2008, 08:48 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
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There are only a few places for money to flow:
Cash Investments - Interest rates are too low, no good.
Real Estate - Are you kidding me? Very few buying opportunities to make money. Plus, who wants to be a landlord now?
Precious Metals - Gold already skyrocketed. Plus, overall gold is not a good long-term investment.
Stock Market - Process of elimination, here we are.
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
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03-18-2008, 09:18 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: near Canadian border and near Mexican border
Posts: 1,142
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Silver is looking good.
__________________
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
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03-18-2008, 09:19 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40
There are only a few places for money to flow:
Cash Investments - Interest rates are too low, no good.
Real Estate - Are you kidding me? Very few buying opportunities to make money. Plus, who wants to be a landlord now?
Precious Metals - Gold already skyrocketed. Plus, overall gold is not a good long-term investment.
Stock Market - Process of elimination, here we are.
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Is anyone just sitting on the sidelines for a while until the volatility has subsided? How about putting money into extra mortgage payments rather than a market that looks like it will fall over the next six months.
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03-18-2008, 10:56 PM
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#12
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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I tend to agree with retire@40.
Cash pays less and less, some bonds look expensive, commodities are through the roof, even some foreign markets look pricey at this point. So that leaves just a few possible investments that look *relatively* undervalued (though not necessarily cheap): US stocks (preferrably of the dividend-paying kind), REITS, and select high quality bonds (like munis). All offer relatively high dividend yields right now and in these uncertain times, I want some income to dull the pain.
Vanguard Equity Income: Yield 3.19%
Vanguard REIT Index: 5.15%
Vanguard tax exempt intermediate: 3.65%
compared to:
Vanguard Prime money Market fund: 3.20% and marching lower.
Interestingly, VG Federal money market fund, which carries no credit risk, actually pays a higher interest rate than VG Prime right now.
As for paying extra towards the mortgage, I rejected the idea for many reasons, one of them being that I want my assets to remain as liquid as possible in times like these. Borrowing against home equity is becoming harder as is selling a home. But I would find paying off credit cards and auto loans very tempting right now (if I had such debt) in order to improve my monthly cash flow.
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03-18-2008, 11:09 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
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Periodic investing as usual here. Marches investment made yesterday. Perfect timing!! No newsletter though cuz I don't think anyone would pay for one that said have an AA plan, invest once a month with whatever you have, rebalance annually. Rinse and repeat...
DD
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03-19-2008, 12:05 AM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 183
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Dow will be approaching 13000, and this will go down as the most overrated thing since global warming.
All you pessimists should rejoice if it does go to 9000 - what a bargain that will be!
Either way, I'm a passive indexer who doesn't change my strategy based on which way the winds of panic are blowing. My guess is purely for fun.
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03-19-2008, 06:30 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by innova
Dow will be approaching 13000, and this will go down as the most overrated thing since global warming.
All you pessimists should rejoice if it does go to 9000 - what a bargain that will be!
Either way, I'm a passive indexer who doesn't change my strategy based on which way the winds of panic are blowing. My guess is purely for fun.
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I'm interested at what point a passive investor becomes a market timer. It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity.
For 20 years I've been a passive investor in index funds, buying each month through 401k etc and with after tax funds. After the Dow hit 14000 and then fell to 13000 I moved 30% of my investments into fixed and cash, not looking for growth, just preserving capital, I went from 80/20 equity/fixed and cash to 50/50. I've continued buying through the fall, but the first time the Dow hit 12000 I moved another 20% into inflation linked bonds. Not exactly a market timer, just getting out at a previously decided point.
I have plenty of after tax savings so now I'm looking at putting my monthly savings towards my mortgage. This market is just too volatile; 3% daily swings just don't give me any confidence in the foundation it's sitting on.
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03-19-2008, 06:37 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
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The poll is interesting, basically we have Bulls and Bears. If we assign OMG as
a Dow of 9500 the average comes out to 10919.
Sounds like a sensible number to me.
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03-19-2008, 07:54 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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"It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity."
Not really. To me OMG means something else for this thread than 9500 
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03-19-2008, 08:07 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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that's not nerves of steel. that's me not knowing what i'm doing.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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03-19-2008, 08:12 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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03-19-2008, 08:15 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
"It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity."
Not really. To me OMG means something else for this thread than 9500 |
Sure but I couldn't bring myself to use 3000
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