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View Poll Results: What will be the Dow's lowest point in the next year
12000 13 11.61%
11500 24 21.43%
11000 16 14.29%
10500 15 13.39%
10000 14 12.50%
Oh My God 30 26.79%
Voters: 112. You may not vote on this poll

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How Low Dow?
Old 03-18-2008, 09:29 PM   #1
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How Low Dow?

With the Fed blowing air into a balloon with a hole in it how low do you think the Dow will go in the next year
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:30 PM   #2
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Isn't How Low Dow a Chinese dish?
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:32 PM   #3
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I'll go second, 9,000 if the meltdown occurs, 11,500 if we muddle through. Meltdown would be more bank failures and severe panic selling.
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:33 PM   #4
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Nun, that's the trouble with being totally out of the market. No one knows whether it's going lower or going up from here...
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:35 PM   #5
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Quote:
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Isn't How Low Dow a Chinese dish?
Crap, you beat me to it!
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:40 PM   #6
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After much thought I think it could go lower but then again it may go higher.
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:43 PM   #7
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Nun, that's the trouble with being totally out of the market. No one knows whether it's going lower or going up from here...
Sure no one knows, but what do you think.....
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:48 PM   #8
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I don't know, how low Dow now?
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:48 PM   #9
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There are only a few places for money to flow:

Cash Investments - Interest rates are too low, no good.

Real Estate - Are you kidding me? Very few buying opportunities to make money. Plus, who wants to be a landlord now?

Precious Metals - Gold already skyrocketed. Plus, overall gold is not a good long-term investment.

Stock Market - Process of elimination, here we are.
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Old 03-18-2008, 10:18 PM   #10
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Silver is looking good.
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Old 03-18-2008, 10:19 PM   #11
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There are only a few places for money to flow:

Cash Investments - Interest rates are too low, no good.

Real Estate - Are you kidding me? Very few buying opportunities to make money. Plus, who wants to be a landlord now?

Precious Metals - Gold already skyrocketed. Plus, overall gold is not a good long-term investment.

Stock Market - Process of elimination, here we are.
Is anyone just sitting on the sidelines for a while until the volatility has subsided? How about putting money into extra mortgage payments rather than a market that looks like it will fall over the next six months.
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Old 03-18-2008, 11:56 PM   #12
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I tend to agree with retire@40.

Cash pays less and less, some bonds look expensive, commodities are through the roof, even some foreign markets look pricey at this point. So that leaves just a few possible investments that look *relatively* undervalued (though not necessarily cheap): US stocks (preferrably of the dividend-paying kind), REITS, and select high quality bonds (like munis). All offer relatively high dividend yields right now and in these uncertain times, I want some income to dull the pain.

Vanguard Equity Income: Yield 3.19%
Vanguard REIT Index: 5.15%
Vanguard tax exempt intermediate: 3.65%
compared to:
Vanguard Prime money Market fund: 3.20% and marching lower.
Interestingly, VG Federal money market fund, which carries no credit risk, actually pays a higher interest rate than VG Prime right now.

As for paying extra towards the mortgage, I rejected the idea for many reasons, one of them being that I want my assets to remain as liquid as possible in times like these. Borrowing against home equity is becoming harder as is selling a home. But I would find paying off credit cards and auto loans very tempting right now (if I had such debt) in order to improve my monthly cash flow.
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Old 03-19-2008, 12:09 AM   #13
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Periodic investing as usual here. Marches investment made yesterday. Perfect timing!! No newsletter though cuz I don't think anyone would pay for one that said have an AA plan, invest once a month with whatever you have, rebalance annually. Rinse and repeat...

DD
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Old 03-19-2008, 01:05 AM   #14
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Dow will be approaching 13000, and this will go down as the most overrated thing since global warming.

All you pessimists should rejoice if it does go to 9000 - what a bargain that will be!

Either way, I'm a passive indexer who doesn't change my strategy based on which way the winds of panic are blowing. My guess is purely for fun.
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Old 03-19-2008, 07:30 AM   #15
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Dow will be approaching 13000, and this will go down as the most overrated thing since global warming.

All you pessimists should rejoice if it does go to 9000 - what a bargain that will be!

Either way, I'm a passive indexer who doesn't change my strategy based on which way the winds of panic are blowing. My guess is purely for fun.
I'm interested at what point a passive investor becomes a market timer. It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity.

For 20 years I've been a passive investor in index funds, buying each month through 401k etc and with after tax funds. After the Dow hit 14000 and then fell to 13000 I moved 30% of my investments into fixed and cash, not looking for growth, just preserving capital, I went from 80/20 equity/fixed and cash to 50/50. I've continued buying through the fall, but the first time the Dow hit 12000 I moved another 20% into inflation linked bonds. Not exactly a market timer, just getting out at a previously decided point.

I have plenty of after tax savings so now I'm looking at putting my monthly savings towards my mortgage. This market is just too volatile; 3% daily swings just don't give me any confidence in the foundation it's sitting on.
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Old 03-19-2008, 07:37 AM   #16
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The poll is interesting, basically we have Bulls and Bears. If we assign OMG as
a Dow of 9500 the average comes out to 10919.

Sounds like a sensible number to me.
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Old 03-19-2008, 08:54 AM   #17
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"It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity."

Not really. To me OMG means something else for this thread than 9500
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Old 03-19-2008, 09:07 AM   #18
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that's not nerves of steel. that's me not knowing what i'm doing.
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Old 03-19-2008, 09:12 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger View Post
"It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity."

Not really. To me OMG means something else for this thread than 9500
I think OMG may be a point lower than October 9th, 2002, when the Dow hit 7286..........
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Old 03-19-2008, 09:15 AM   #20
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"It takes nerves of steel to watch the stock market fall and do nothing, even though this is the definition of passivity."

Not really. To me OMG means something else for this thread than 9500
Sure but I couldn't bring myself to use 3000
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