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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 01:08 PM   #41
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster

Also note that with the exception of a few "bumps" that the gains are nearly linear over time.
I guess a lot* can be hidden by the term "nearly linear", because this chart is not. There are easily differentiated time segments with more or less linear slopes, but the slopes of the line drawn through given segments will vary drastically from slopes of other segments.

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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 01:12 PM   #42
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Thanks for stating the obvious...

What I meant was that there is a pattern to stock market growth that is somewhat consistant over long time periods. So on a log scale plot the {rate of} growth is nearly constant over long time periods and can be plotted in a nearly linear fashion.

Also note from the chart that aparently the market is back to a place where it can (hopefully) grow at it's long term trend. Based on the chart the market appears to be fairly valued.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 01:35 PM   #43
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
It's an interesting thought.* Of course we are all lucky to not be born in the Darfor region of the Sudan running from the "Dark Horsemen".* But all around me at work are high income white males with educated parents who sent them to good University who got good degrees (Engineering, Finance, IT, CS) at these good Universities, and 90% say things like, "I'm goind to work until I'm 70." "I can't retire, what are you crazy?" and "Aw, income doesn't matter, whenever you get more, you always manage to spend more."

So yes, we got a "free ride" up to a certian point, but we do deserve some credit for taking advantage of all those, "advantages".
yes, hard work helps...and the harder you work, the more luck you seem to get...BUT, lets not forget however, the being born in America(or another 'advanced' nation), being born white, being born male, being born healthy in mind and body and being born with either college educated parents or parents that understood the importance of education for their kids are all things that are pure dumb luck and you can't take any credit for yourself.

Being born with some or all of those things, imo, get you at least to second or third base right off the bat...

There are plenty of people who started out in the batters box and thru hard work managed to hit a double or even a triple, and STILL aren't as far ahead as those that made it to "home" -after being born on third base.

Its those people, those that were born on third, hit a single and think they managed a home run and then spend the rest of their lives looking down their noses at all those slobs that are "only" on 1st 2nd or 3rd base that bug me the most.


So everyone should enjoy their good fortune...but don't let your heads get to big*



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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 02:13 PM   #44
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

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I have to agree with Nords that the harder a person works the luckier they become. That's what happened in our case. kz
That's what happened in "our" case? Unless it is absolute certainty to happen to everyone in every conceivable and inconceivable circumstance no matter what... all you're saying is it's nothing but luck.

Someone else said " I belive it was planning and hard work "in that"... in other words he redefined pure luck on the fly just to rationalize his statement and personal
position.

How about all the smart people who plan and work hard? Harder than you? Then something bad happens and they get wiped out? Then tehey will be called stupid or lazy or something. You plan and work and it all works out well in the end (luck) and people like to grab credit for controlling the universe.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 04:39 PM   #45
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
Also note from the chart that aparently the market is back to a place where it can (hopefully) grow at it's long term trend. Based on the chart the market appears to be fairly valued.
By drawing a couple of trend lines it looks to me like being back on long term trend could give the S&P a value somewhere around 1000 at best and under 500 at worst.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 05:24 PM   #46
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
Thanks for stating the obvious...

What I meant was that there is a pattern to stock market growth that is somewhat consistant over long time periods. So on a log scale plot the {rate of} growth is nearly constant over long time periods and can be plotted in a nearly linear fashion.

Also note from the chart that aparently the market is back to a place where it can (hopefully) grow at it's long term trend. Based on the chart the market appears to be fairly valued.
Apparently it wasn't obvious to you, because of your meaningless and erroneous summary of what is contained in the plot.

Ha
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 06:01 PM   #47
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

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Originally Posted by razztazz
How about all the smart people who plan and work hard? Harder than you? Then something bad happens and they get wiped out? Then tehey will be called stupid or lazy or something. You plan and work and it all works out well in the end (luck) and people like to grab credit for controlling the universe.
You're missing the point. "Bad things happen to good people." We might walk under someone washing windows on a highrise just when the whole scaffold collapses. We might be working in the World Trade Center when..... Hopefully, you get the point.

Life isn't fair but it's equitable. We are born. Some have birth defects. Some are born into poor families. Some get run over by the garbage truck. There's a certain amount of random chance but there's also a certain amount of personal discovery and enlightenment.

My father was not well off financially but had 5 children (my mother helped). I did well in school. Doing well with a poor father got me a great scholarship (wasn't I lucky!). I did well in college and got a good job (again lucky!). I saved money, lived below my means and now I'm just about at FIRE (WOW -- how lucky can I get!!!!!). I could have been killed in the car wreck I had my senior year in high school.

There were a lot of kids in my high school that had fathers that didn't make much money. None of them were killed in car wrecks before graduation. I didn't load up on dot.coms in 1999 but some of them might have done just that.

You do what you can with what you have and suddenly success is called "luck." Everything doesn't always work out but it's not just buying the right lottery ticket either.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 08:12 PM   #48
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

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Everything doesn't always work out but it's not just buying the right lottery ticket either.
Speaking of that and the earlier discussion of a lot of folks with good means with professional jobs but still not saving and playing the lottery to win. I believe some of the success from people on this board is being able to wade through the bullshit. Everyone is inundated with so much noise (buy this and invest in that). Sometimes I believe that our success is also a good helping of cynicism.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 08:14 PM   #49
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

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Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle


Speaking of that and the earlier discussion of a lot of folks with good means with professional jobs but still not saving and playing the lottery to win. I believe some of the success from people on this board is being able to wade through the bull****. Everyone is inundated with so much noise (buy this and invest in that). Sometimes I believe that our success is also a good helping of cynicism.
Heheh, either that, or we were just lucky to listen to the right bullshit.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 08:54 PM   #50
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

I'm not lucky. *I planned all along to be born in America to father who was a child in the great depression and a real estate agent mother who dragged me all over the place looking a houses when I was a kid.

I knew when I was 25 and bought my first house for $90,000 that 14 years later it would be worth $500,000. *Its not luck that I happened to meet my wife during the biggest bull market in the history of real estate. *I knew that when we sold my wife's condo and used the gains to buy 3 more houses that those houses would all double in value in three years. *That's not luck its brilliance. *

Look most of us have been lucky, many have been extremely lucky but at the same time we have taken steps that have allowed our luck to be transformed into good fortune. *While we got lucky in realesteate my wife and I have both been maxing out or 401k and IRA options and unsuccessfully in vesting in other areas. *Unfortunately we were not old enough to have large portfolios during the big bull market in stocks . *And quite frankly I think those of you who did suck :P.

I was making $22,000 a year when I bought this house. *I literally ate peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for lunch and spagettis for dinner seven days a week until I saved enough money for the down payment. *

Was I lucky that I decide to drive a 15 year old car instead of a new one so I had no other payments on my credit? *Unlike most of my friends who bought new cars as soon as they got a "real" job after college. *Was it also luck that I worked full time while in college so I had no student loans. *

Was it luck that my boss was willing to write the loan officer a letter stating that I would be getting a grade increase in 45 days bring my income to $27,000

So yea we have been extremely lucky but we have also taken steps that allowed the luck find us. *

I have a friend who started with the Government the same day I did at the same job. *We were both broke at the time. *I bought a house he bought a truck.

We are both now GS 14s he and his wife just bought their first house 2 years ago. *They have a huge payment, big credit card bills, and two car payments and don't save any money or max out their TSPs. *Something tells me he is not giving Luck a chance to find him. *




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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 09:07 PM   #51
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

OK - so we're all smart enough to take full advantage of our good luck.

Audrey
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-22-2006, 11:26 PM   #52
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Wow!* I've been lucky enough the past few days to hear enough bulls**t from this thread to fill my bulls**t quota for years to come!* I'm one lucky guy!* *
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 05:52 AM   #53
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle


Sometimes I believe that our success is also a good helping of cynicism.
I resemble that remark.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 06:10 AM   #54
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

never confuse genius with a bull market
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 06:56 AM   #55
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

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Originally Posted by mathjak107
never confuse genius with a bull market
An excellent point!

Those of us who were positioned to benefit from the bull, through our genius or luck, must now be ready for what comes next. Is the bull to rise again, replay the great depression or will it turn into a sideways market for the rest of eternity?

In the words of a great philosopher -- "Come on punk. Do you feel lucky?"

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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 03:34 PM   #56
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

After being a ultra risk intolerant "investing" only in CDs and having accumulated a large nestegg, I saw how well my younger brothers were doing in the stock market, so I decided to invest a significant amount of my hard saved money at the end of 98. Talk about bad luck. Wish I had stayed in CDs.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 03:38 PM   #57
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

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An excellent point!

Those of us who were positioned to benefit from the bull, through our genius or luck, must now be ready for what comes next. 2B
If they dont get the desired results they can just blame The Gov, or Welfare, or those socialist europeans or something. It's luck whne they wnat to exp-lain away things. It's their hard workd and all that stuff when things have turned out well for them
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 08:09 PM   #58
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

We both went to work as Feds as our first "real" jobs after graduating from university.* When I found that I could take a multiple-choice test (the PACE) and get a job offer, I was sold!* * The CSRS benefit package was also an inducement.

Luck was in meeting my sweetheart in L.A. and following her to San Francisco (where she's from).* * We didn't live an extravagent lifestyle, but racing motocycles generally meant I had limited cash reserves.* I also learned that sending a big chunk of my pay out each month to service credit card debt was not very entertaining, so I did get out of that habit, which I guess is something that some people can't claim.

We were in our early 30s when we bought our house in 09/1985, just barely squeeking in before the market jumped and would have priced us out.* It drained our (mostly her's as she's always been more frugal than I) savings, and we had to borrow some money from my mother for a month to pad the bank account so we could qualify.

Once we got in the house we went through several refinances over the next five years, moving from the 30 year ARM we had to take to get in, to a 30 year fixed, and finally to a 15 year fixed.* We paid the house off in 18 years.

Our experiences with investing have been "unlucky" as we've tended to sit on the sidelines expecting the run-ups to be a fluke, and then finally putting our savings in right before things tanked and seeing quick and substantial losses.

But we did the full TSP amounts (though we seemed to pick bad times to move into the C fund too, so everything is in the G fund - we're really gunshy), we were in the highest geographic locality pay area which both boosted our take home as well as being counted in the retirement comps, and we were GS11/12s for the majority of our careers.

Not having kids undoubtedly helped a great deal, and taking advantages of early outs (with the included financial hit for leaving early) got us both out when we turned 52 (a year apart).

If it weren't for the pensions we'd undoubtedly be working up until "normal" retirement age, if not beyond, because we sure don't have anything like the portfolios many of you do. But we were "lucky" in picking a good career path that provided stable and pretty decent income. Watching our friends who worked in private industry go through layoffs, corporate bankruptcies and the like certainly gave us plenty of incentive to stay Feds.

cheers,
Michael
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 08:55 PM   #59
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

i was a cheap & lazygoodfornothinbum who got lucky and then wound up with an inheritance ta boot. life, ya never know what tomorrow brings.
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Re: How many are simply lucky?
Old 04-23-2006, 09:40 PM   #60
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Re: How many are simply lucky?

Don't know if it is luck or planning but I would attribute the following factors for financial success thus far:

(1) Above average income.* Two professional salaries for majority of last 27 years.

(2) Above average saving rate.* Lived off of 1 to 1.5 salaries and saved the rest.

(3) Good investmenting practices.* Always contributed max to 401ks. Learned about long term market return, dollar cost averaging, low cost mutual funds, efficient market theory, etc. in mid 30s after a couple of false starts with stock brokers and have basically been DCAing after tax money into Vanguard, TRPrice, etc. ever since.

(4) Did inherit some money.* It is currently less that 20% of total net worth.

So is that good planning or luck?* Don't really know.* Sort of like the nature versus nurture debate.

Did* DW and I save because we were smart and planned or because we were lucky enough to have depression era parents that drilled in the importance and started the savings habit at a young age or maybe it was the DNA inherited from scandinavian and chinese ancestors that programmed us to save (i.e. store food for the winter) or risk going hungry?* Don't know but in either case when the aggravation level goes up at work and I think that I really don't have to put up with this BS if I don't want to it makes me very glad that I did.

MB* * *
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