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Anything can happen
Old 12-03-2019, 11:40 AM   #261
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Anything can happen

Here are the stock market trends for Japan, Emerging Market, Europe and USA.

USA is the exception. However, "what if" the USA market crashes and the USA market takes decades to recover because of the 22 trillion dollar debt?

How will your retirement turn out if the USA market follow the exact same trend as Japan, Emerging Markets and Europe? Can you take this risk?

IMO, this risk is unacceptable to me and therefore I am 100% treasury bonds to safeguard my retirement that I have already earned during the bull market. If this risk is acceptable to you and you have other resources, then leave your money in the stock market and assume that this possibility will NEVER happen.

+2% in treasury bonds is better than -40% in a stock market crash which may take decades to recover. Currently money is flowing into the USA market because there is no other place to invest internationally.

However, once foreign investors have determined there are better investment elsewhere, they will sell US stocks in a heartbeat. I suspect this is what happened to Japan, Europe and Emerging Markets.

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Old 12-03-2019, 03:43 PM   #262
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I'm 57 & I've always managed my own. I do the asset allocation thing with my 401(k).
My single biggest account is a 700 K taxable brokerage account at Fidelity, which is mostly for income (conservative)
It's performance is very predictable.

On a day like today, where the averages are down as follows:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.01%)
S&P 500 (-0.66%)
NASDAQ (-0.55%)
Russell 2k (-0.31%)

Mine is only down (-0.09%)
Of course it lags the averages on up days, but I can live with that.
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Old 12-03-2019, 06:31 PM   #263
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..... A FA should be consulted because a FA has the training, certification and experience that most people do not have. (Disclosure: My daughter is a FA with Charles Schwab.) A second opinion does not hurt and would only cost you $200 or so for 1 hour of consultation. ....
While I am in no way disparaging your daughter and she may well be the exception, in my experience most FAs are empty suits at best and pushy salespeople at worst.

Also, we have had members here who have tried to get a second opinion on their plan and were willing to pay for it but unless they were interested in a AUM relationship there was no interest by FAs in spending time for a second opinion.
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Old 12-03-2019, 06:51 PM   #264
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While I am in no way disparaging your daughter and she may well be the exception, in my experience most FAs are empty suits at best and pushy salespeople at worst.

Also, we have had members here who have tried to get a second opinion on their plan and were willing to pay for it but unless they were interested in a AUM relationship there was no interest by FAs in spending time for a second opinion.
+1
An added note is that the FA's if they were truly out for the best interest of their client's, then they would also recommend other products that their firm does not sell.
I asked Fidelity would you invest in your broker CD's right now over a one off CD at X Credit Union? The answer was no and further added that they have no idea of the current Credit Union deals.
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Old 12-03-2019, 06:53 PM   #265
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Not all FAs are treated equal but if you start out the conversation by stating you have no intentions of moving assets from one firm to the firm the FA is...you will quickly and easily discern which ones are advisors and which ones are salesman.
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Old 12-03-2019, 08:09 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by vchan2177 View Post
Here are the stock market trends for Japan, Emerging Market, Europe and USA.

USA is the exception. However, "what if" the USA market crashes and the USA market takes decades to recover because of the 22 trillion dollar debt?

How will your retirement turn out if the USA market follow the exact same trend as Japan, Emerging Markets and Europe? Can you take this risk?

IMO, this risk is unacceptable to me and therefore I am 100% treasury bonds to safeguard my retirement that I have already earned during the bull market. If this risk is acceptable to you and you have other resources, then leave your money in the stock market and assume that this possibility will NEVER happen.

+2% in treasury bonds is better than -40% in a stock market crash which may take decades to recover.
LOL, if I lost 50% in stocks today I'd still be better off than I was 5 years ago when I ER'd. And I had more than enough money to live on then.

I don't lose sleep over stuff like this, it's called black swans. I get the argument that you've already won the game so don't play but history is what it is until that swan event happens. And history says the US is the bell cow and I'll take the risk that it won't change in the years I have left. The upside is well worth that small risk and the downside is manageable short of a true economic collapse, in which case we're all screwed.

There's no guarantee the gov't is going to pay 2% forever either, and what are your bonds worth if nobody's buying them? Same swan.

(BTW the US market DID crash 10 years ago with massive debt. Hmmm.)
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Old 12-03-2019, 08:15 PM   #267
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LOL, if I lost 40% in stocks today I'd still be better off than I was 5 years ago when I ER'd. ...
+1 except make it 8 years and that is after 8 years of expenses and buying a winter condo for cash and replacing a 1-car garage with a 2-car garage with bonus room in the loft.

So if I could retire then I could certainly retire now... I have more even with a 40% dip in stock and less years to go.
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Old 12-04-2019, 06:48 AM   #268
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+1 except make it 8 years and that is after 8 years of expenses and buying a winter condo for cash and replacing a 1-car garage with a 2-car garage with bonus room in the loft.

So if I could retire then I could certainly retire now... I have more even with a 40% dip in stock and less years to go.
+1 except make it 100% of my stock funds but exclude your large, one-time expenditures. And I had already been retired for 3 years, starting with a smaller balance.
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Old 12-04-2019, 08:29 AM   #269
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I've managed my own accounts for at least 20 years now. The stock brokers and FA's I had prior probably cost me $500K in net worth with stupid advise. My broker had me double down on World Com and even convinced me to set up a margin account!! Costly lessons.

Both my brother and sister use FA's and have gone through at least 3 or 4 between them even though I've begged them to just buy some index funds. But hey, they got a nice box seat at the latest college game from their FA. You can bet they paid handsomely for that. . .
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Old 12-04-2019, 08:59 PM   #270
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Interesting thread.

I'm 52 and pretty new into this, at least new to paying attention to my IRA and 401(k), which grew throughout my 30s and 40s without me paying much attention to it, as I put in close to the max, thankfully.

Suddenly, I have about 1M in IRA, 403(b), and an already-taxed brokerage fund and I'm paying attention and thinking about options. I guess for me, I'd rather do it myself and use resources such as this website and a lot of other resources, and not pay an adviser. I've learned a lot the last two years and expect to keep learning more.
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Old 12-05-2019, 06:45 AM   #271
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Interesting thread.

I'm 52 and pretty new into this, at least new to paying attention to my IRA and 401(k), which grew throughout my 30s and 40s without me paying much attention to it, as I put in close to the max, thankfully.

Suddenly, I have about 1M in IRA, 403(b), and an already-taxed brokerage fund and I'm paying attention and thinking about options. I guess for me, I'd rather do it myself and use resources such as this website and a lot of other resources, and not pay an adviser. I've learned a lot the last two years and expect to keep learning more.
A lot of what I learned was from folks on this awesome forum. Mainly gave me the confidence and eliminated any fear I had prior.

From a fellow Minnesota, welcome! You will learn a lot here.
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Old 12-07-2019, 05:40 AM   #272
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Managed my own ever since buying my first mutual fund 20 years ago. I do a lot of reading, and follow people who have the same conservative ideas that I have....blue chip stocks that pay dividends. Fortunately because of that I was able to retire last year.

Possibly the best advise I was ever given, was a casual question by a bank teller about 20 years ago when I was making a deposit to my savings account; "have you ever considered a ROTH IRA?" Me: "Whats that?" I did some research, and it sure seemed like a good idea at the time. And it is still a good idea.
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Old 03-08-2020, 10:15 PM   #273
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You don't have enough of a difference? My clients are a bit more upstream? Is that your sales pitch to the elitists?
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Thank you for that.
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I've heard enough. <plonk!>
So hows that rate of return working out for you forum professionals. In it for the long-term right. Hows the draw off?

Those of you that bought treasuries and didn't get too caught up in equities congrats - Smart move. When anyone and everyone is euphoric of their success in the stock market, that's a bell weather of things to come. They get caught up in the easy money. There's a saying in our industry that Bulls and Bears make money and pigs and sheep get slaughtered.

Get ready for a ride, the SPX looks like it wants to go to 2600 then 24

My heart is with the retirees that are humble and respect the markets with impunity.
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Old 03-08-2020, 11:27 PM   #274
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So hows that rate of return working out for you forum professionals. In it for the long-term right ...
Well, I don't remember what that post was about, but my long term rate of return will almost certainly be unchanged after the current excitement settles out. Right now our equities are probably down and our TIPS are probably up. I don't know because I haven't checked.

For those who are up or down lately it isn't at all about being smart or dumb; it's simply about being lucky or unlucky.
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:00 AM   #275
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There's a saying in our industry that Bulls and Bears make money and pigs and sheep get slaughtered.
Never heard that one before.
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:18 AM   #276
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I agree that a poll would be more helpful. Otherwise, yes, I manage our finances and investments without any outside assistance.
Same here - have done it starting with my first dollar earned
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:45 AM   #277
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I've been managing my own money since the first dollar. Dad gave zero advice, very close to the vest. Very first brokerage account with Raymond James (er... thieves) got me into cruelly priced closed end funds during rollover and reemployment. By the time I got some breathing room I had lost most of the 90's boom. Migrated to Schwab and never looked back. I am shifting toward their Robo account as my preferred account anchor.
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:50 AM   #278
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There's a saying in our industry that Bulls and Bears make money and pigs and sheep get slaughtered.
And further:

Sheep get sheered;
Pigs get fat;
Hogs get slaughtered.
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:02 PM   #279
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I manage our accounts and always have. Just last year we moved to FIDO and got a CFP assigned to us...but he's just there to ask detailed questions to and I like to "run things by" him if I'm doing something major. We meet with him once a year and a few topics we've discussed the past two years are:

1) How do TIPS work?
2) Do you offer a deferred shared life annuity? Can you give me a quote?
3) Does FIDO have a way to automatically "rebuild" my CD ladder that I've set up?
4) Here are the CD ladders I'm going to buy...do you see any issues with this as far as exceeding the FDIC insurance limits?

Those are the kinds of things we use him for.

In full disclosure, I have an MBA in Finance and worked in Corporate Finance for a Fortune500 company for 24 years.
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Old 03-09-2020, 09:10 PM   #280
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My heart is with the retirees that are humble and respect the markets with impunity.

I don't think that is the word you were looking for....
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