How much did you lose today?

Maurice said:
I don't manage money - but I do value portfolios of derivatives. In my world there's no such thing as a 'paper' loss.
Click to expand...

True enough. Still, I think that for calm people who invest in reasonably valued securities with no outdates, todays market price should be given some weight but usually a lot less than 100% weight. Otherwise, there is no way to invest in securities with market quotations other than momentum trading.

On this board we have seen posts which recognize the tension in this, and so the posters preferred unquoted securities such as private REITs to similar but publically traded issues.

As long as you are not borrowing against a position, there is no rational reason for preferring less liquidity and price transparency to more, other than self management of emotions. Liquidity can't subtract value.

ha
 
Last edited:
Safe Harbour said:
How do you all know this already? For many/most mutual funds you won't know until tomorrow. Not that it matters - you just rode rode up 600 pts in S&P in the last 3 days - now you're back to only up 300 pts? If you could tell me where we'll be in a month I'd be interested. Today.....
Click to expand...
I think all online quotes accessible by online or web-aware for mutual funds are ready by 7 pm eastern time. If you have a portfolio of ETFs, then you don't ever have to wait, the quotes are available instantly.
Some tools to use: Vanguard web site, TRowePrice web site (use the free Morningstar portfolio tracker there), Quicken, MSMoney, and the stock_quote plugin for Excel.

Bottom line: There is no need to wait until tomorrow, when you can know now.
 
LOL! said:
Yesterday, I was down tens of thousands of dollars which doesn't bother me at all. In a strange twist, I am most happy about the few hundred dollars I made by buying on the dip within 15 minutes of the market close yesterday and selling this morning on the dead-cat bounce.

In other words, a short-term gain of $300 is worth much more to me than a $60,000 loss. I must be insane.
Click to expand...
That is definitely a reversal of what logic and experients have led us to assume.

Ha
 
maddythebeagle said:
And I dont even look when I know the market is down...some of you really enjoy being punished....:p
Click to expand...

The reason I "punish" myself by checking out my portfolio on big down days, is because I am trying to learn to get immune to market swings. I guess I see it as part of my apprenticeship as an investor. I am learning to keep cool and not panic when markets come down sharply. In the long run I believe that it will prevent me from making big mistakes, like liquidating my portfolio at the worst possible time. It also allows me to test the volatility inherent to my specific portfolio and to see how my portfolio handles in down markets. All valuable insights.
 
FIREdreamer said:
The reason I "punish" myself by checking out my portfolio on big down days, is because I am trying to learn to get immune to market swings. I guess I see it as part of my apprenticeship as an investor. I am learning to keep cool and not panic when markets come down sharply.
Click to expand...

Vizzini: [Vizzini stops suddenly, and falls dead to the right]
Buttercup: And to think, all that time it was your cup that was poisoned.
Man in Black: They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.

FIREdreamer said:
In the long run I believe that it will prevent me from making big mistakes, like liquidating my portfolio at the worst possible time. It also allows me to test the volatility inherent to my specific portfolio and to see how my portfolio handles in down markets. All valuable insights.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking for a while (Danger, Will Robinson!) that looking at one's portfolio too often may result in a more conservative allocation than is necessary. After all, which of the following looks scarier:

big.chart


or

big.chart


So it seems like looking daily is "scarier" or "more volatile" than looking monthly over time. I'm not sure how folks typically measure volatility; I know in my MBA finance class we calculated a volatility measure -- covariance, maybe -- by comparing a stock's weekly close against the S&P. Anyway, the thought is that if you look less often, it looks less scary, so you could handle a portfolio allocated more heavily to stocks than you would if you looked daily. Since I doubt any of us are rebalancing or changing our FIRE date by that much on a daily basis,there's really no need to look daily and possibly some harm in doing so.

As for the OP's question, I was down about 2.5% yesterday, since that's what the S&P did. In dollar figures I don't know because I chose not to look. I went Christmas shopping instead.

2Cor521
 
Last edited:
I much prefer the more volatile plot because I see buying opportunities on every dip!
 
FinanceDude said:
Then you must LOVE 2007..........;)
Click to expand...
Yes I do. I have made some [-]lucky market timing[/-] unbelievable rebalancing trades this year with a significant fraction of my net worth.
 
LOL! said:
Yes I do. I have made some [-]lucky market timing[/-] unbelievable rebalancing trades this year with a significant fraction of my net worth.
Click to expand...

This isn't rebalancing, this is market timing. But if you are good at it, no reason not to indulge.

Ha
 
SecondCor521 said:
I've been thinking for a while (Danger, Will Robinson!) that looking at one's portfolio too often may result in a more conservative allocation than is necessary.
2Cor521
Click to expand...

A more conservative allocation than necessary relative to what standard? Relative to what generic models developped by people who know nothing about me recommend? Or should I choose an AA that reflects MY risk tolerance instead?

I find myself very comfortable with a 65% equity / 35% bond asset allocation, which is fairly conservative for somebody my age (33). But I don't see why I should venture into a riskier AA, when all I need to retire in my forties is a 3% real return on my money.

And I have to say, neither one of the two plots you posted here look scary to me. Show me a plot of the S&P from 2000 to 2002 and I might get scared.
 
I estimate I lost about $9800 yesterday. No big deal, really, but it's kind of annoying because if it had gone just $8900 in the other direction, I would've broken the $450K barrier. :rant:
 
to the ones who loses 20k and above, you guys must have sizeable protfolio. are your allocation 100% equity?
 
steve88 said:
to the ones who loses 20k and above, you guys must have sizeable protfolio. are your allocation 100% equity?
Click to expand...

There are alot of retired folks here. Assume they have a safe-withdrawal rate of 4%. The stock market moved by about 2% yesterday. A $20K drop is 2% of a million, but assume retired folks are not 100% equities, but around 50:50, so they have a portfolio of $2 million. Also, 4% of $2 million is a reasonable $80,000 annual safe withdrawal.

Bottom line: nope folks don't have sizable portfolios around here. They are just average.
Corollary: Your portfolios needs to have drops of $50,000 on some days before you are allowed to retire.
 
Last edited:
LOL! said:
There are alot of retired folks here. Assume they have a safe-withdrawal rate of 4%. The stock market moved by about 2% yesterday. A $20K drop is 2% of a million, but assume retired folks are not 100% equities, but around 50:50, so they have a portfolio of $2 million. Also, 4% of $2 million is a reasonable $80,000 annual safe withdrawal.

Bottom line: nope folks don't have sizable portfolios around here. They are just average.
Click to expand...

Most of the retired ones on here have $500,000 plus,which puts them in the top 5% of all retirees...................:)
 
Now you went and did it. I was comfortable in my unknowing bliss, and you guys show me how easy it is to just list my funds where they can be seen each and everyday I go to read my email. Drat, why did I read this thread? ;)
 
Last edited:
FIREdreamer said:
A more conservative allocation than necessary relative to what standard? Relative to what generic models developped by people who know nothing about me recommend? Or should I choose an AA that reflects MY risk tolerance instead?
Click to expand...

I love this forum's pointed questions...they make me think. I was posting from my own POV and didn't generalize. In my own case, I wish to be as aggressive with my asset allocation as I reasonably can while still being comfortable with the volatility. Currently I am essentially 100% invested in the S&P, but admit that when checking it every day or nearly every day this year, I have a little too much heartburn for my liking. So I have been considering moving 10% to bonds. If I only checked monthly, maybe I would remain comfortable at 100% stocks because there have been quite a few times when the market has been up and down a few hundred points within a 5 trading day period and ended relatively flat.

I would say pick an AA that reflects your own risk tolerance. My point is that if you do a gut check on your risk tolerance by checking the market, the results you will get will depend on how frequently you check the market, and perhaps checking it less frequently will result in less apparent volatility, which will in turn affect how comfortable you feel.

FIREdreamer said:
I find myself very comfortable with a 65% equity / 35% bond asset allocation, which is fairly conservative for somebody my age (33). But I don't see why I should venture into a riskier AA, when all I need to retire in my forties is a 3% real return on my money.
Click to expand...

The only reasons I can think of would be if you wanted to run up the score and retire even earlier or retire with a better standard of living or retire with more security or would want to leave more to your kids or charity and are comfortable with the added risk you'd have to take on to do so.

FIREdreamer said:
And I have to say, neither one of the two plots you posted here look scary to me. Show me a plot of the S&P from 2000 to 2002 and I might get scared.
Click to expand...

My comments were about the comparative level of scariness between the two plots, not the absolute level.

2Cor521
 
FinanceDude said:
Most of the retired ones on here have $500,000 plus,which puts them in the top 5% of all retirees...................:)
Click to expand...
FD.........where does that stat come from? I've heard it on a radio commercial for Fisher(sp) Investments and wondered about it's validity. The context was not limited to retirees, tho. I am very interested in this sort of portfolio distribution data and don't know of any sources. That's a lot of money for the average US household, but being on this board makes it sound moderate.

As for the question at hand, I don't usually check when market is down, but I do compare % change for my managed funds vs. their index.
 
Just to alleviate some of the pain from yesterday, I checked what I was up today: $5,700. Kinda makes me feel a little better from yesterdays (paper) loss of $18K.
 
I don't really understand why, but my accounts are back to flat with the day before the Fed disappointed.

Going forward, I really don't feel particularly sanguine about things. It seems that the stuff that is cheap is also loaded with risk; while the rest is not exactly cheap. Not necessarily overpriced either, just not glaringly cheap.

However, if the government has its way things should go swimmingly. The new rule seems to be that markets shalt not go down.

I am really impressed by the $100,000+ one day draw-downs mentioned above. For the cheap livers on the board this world be 3 or more years of expenses. In one day! Not only that, I would be wondering if this can happen in one day, and not a particularly bad day historically, what would a truly bad day look like? Or week? Or year?

But of course, truly bad days may have been successfully banished. Seems to be working that way so far anyway.

Ha
 
dessert said:
I have to learn the art of "not looking at it" every day. I know this is a bad habit but right now I just can't seem to shake that.
I admire all of you guys that "ignore" what's going on in the market, just check quarterly, or yearly etc.
Gotta learn how to do that........anyway down 19K today but will probably get it back tomorrow! :eek:
Click to expand...

Got back 6K today but I am still up 11.5% for the year so
"what? me worry?" :D

I'll just have to go "cold turkey" and just quit looking for a week, and then longer and longer between peeks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

F
Reviewing Plan on a Lazy Sunday
2
Replies
28
Views
2K
BlueberryPie
BlueberryPie
E
Too much money in IRA
3 4 5
Replies
122
Views
9K
Healthy Lifestyle
H
E
Five Years Retired: Lessons Learned
Replies
24
Views
2K
Koolau
Koolau
M
Home Insurance Personal Property Values
Replies
10
Views
249
Aerides
Aerides
D
Marriage Tax Penalty on Social Security wish I knew earlier
Replies
6
Views
1K
Dave J
D

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom