Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
How much do you listen/read/get information from experts?
Old 07-20-2015, 06:36 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: philly
Posts: 876
How much do you listen/read/get information from experts?

This is more of a vent, so mods feel free to delete if it doesn't have any redeeming value....

So I haven't retired yet but I'd like to next year, I'll be 55. One aspect that I find frustrating is how everyone says how "easy" investing seems to be. Now I'm a scientist so maybe my brain is wired differently because I'm not finding it easy at all.
LOL, which is why I do appreciate you guys...

Anyhoo, here is one of my frustrations. conflicting stories every other day.

I've been trying to get a handle on my post retirement budget and reading up on taxes.

Got an article today from the Motley fool that says retirees often over state their tax bill and owe less than they thought.
two email later I got another email that says "retirees always underestimate their tax burden".

lol, so which is it? am I under or over estimating my bill

Am I the only one that gets frustrated at this or do you just carry on and try to weed out the best information for your particle situation?
__________________

__________________
bclover is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-20-2015, 06:49 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 19th Hole
Posts: 2,529
Unfortunately one size does not fit all and so called experts are a dime a dozen. Read, digest and do the math and then do what is best for you. As far as investing, Bogle and Bernstein are about the only guys I count as experts.

When it comes to taxes, if you know your income it's pretty easy to calculate and determine your tax liability and then plan accordingly.

Just my two cents and YMMV.
__________________

__________________
A totally unblemished life is only for saints.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:02 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
travelover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 9,880
Why guess? Do a sample tax return in Taxcaster and see the real numbers.
__________________
Yes, I have achieved work / life balance.
travelover is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:27 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,102
There are experts and then there are "experts". I consider the bunch at the Motley Fool to be aptly named.

Seriously, the first thing I do when reading a financial article is consider the source of the information and what that individual or institution may have to gain if you buy into their advice. Way too often those in the financial industry want you to keep buying/selling something to boost their fees/commissions. Those experts are salesmen in disguise.

Others are simply click bait, trying to get views on their page, sell a book or meet a deadline for publishing articles they have to write to stay employed.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:36 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,702
I wish there was a website that tallied the predictions of 'experts'.

There's always these guys on TV saying that bonds/equities/taxes/commodities/currencies will go going up/down drastically.

You never hear about whether they were right/wrong!!!

Of course, sometimes they'll come back six months later and say "see: I told you so" but the ones who are wrong never get questioned as to "what happened?"
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:39 AM   #6
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
There are experts and then there are "experts". I consider the bunch at the Motley Fool to be aptly named.

Seriously, the first thing I do when reading a financial article is consider the source of the information and what that individual or institution may have to gain if you buy into their advice. Way too often those in the financial industry want you to keep buying/selling something to boost their fees/commissions. Those experts are salesmen in disguise.

Others are simply click bait, trying to get views on their page, sell a book or meet a deadline for publishing articles they have to write to stay employed.
+1

Quote:
Originally Posted by bclover View Post

So I haven't retired yet but I'd like to next year, I'll be 55. One aspect that I find frustrating is how everyone says how "easy" investing seems to be. Now I'm a scientist so maybe my brain is wired differently because I'm not finding it easy at all.
./.
Am I the only one that gets frustrated at this or do you just carry on and try to weed out the best information for your particle situation?
One of the lessons I learned the hard way is even when an author is an "expert" or established authority in the field, that does not mean the advice being given is helpful to me. It may be just the opposite.

I find the most helpful authors / experts are the ones that I read and follow over long periods of time and who's approach to investing and financial management coincide with my own. The least helpful are those who I read for the first time making very specific pronouncements or giving very precise advice.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:41 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,102
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
I wish there was a website that tallied the predictions of 'experts'.
It needs updating, but here is one: Stock Market Guru Grades - CXO Advisory
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:42 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 2,476
I've always wonder why so many financial experts are still working for a living?
__________________
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:53 AM   #9
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Danbury
Posts: 18
I've gotten the most sound, unbiased advice on the markets and investing from AAII.
__________________
vince is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 07:57 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,886
I think "experts" are like "breaking news" on TV. There's so many that the term gets watered down.

An example of how investing may be frustrating is you want an answer to a right asset allocation for, say a 50 year old. Well, there isn't one. Instead, asset allocation is a subjective thing. One person may say, I'm a big risk taker, the other my not. Or, have the right allocation so you can sleep at night. If you search for an exact percentage among the experts, you won't find one. In other words, the best expert to your investing is yourself.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 08:02 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Nemo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Belleville, ONT
Posts: 4,318
Quote:
Originally Posted by bclover View Post
am I under or over estimating my bill
Or are you under or over estimating the 'experts'?
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."

The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
Nemo2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 08:14 AM   #12
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,446
Here's an interesting blog link from TBP on the same subject Market Forecasters Are Like Blind Squirrels… | The Big Picture
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 08:19 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,820
I read the experts daily. The ones I read post here: www.early-retirement.org
__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 08:27 AM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
There are experts and then there are "experts". I consider the bunch at the Motley Fool to be aptly named.

Seriously, the first thing I do when reading a financial article is consider the source of the information and what that individual or institution may have to gain if you buy into their advice. Way too often those in the financial industry want you to keep buying/selling something to boost their fees/commissions. Those experts are salesmen in disguise.

Others are simply click bait, trying to get views on their page, sell a book or meet a deadline for publishing articles they have to write to stay employed.
+1

I try to read a lot, consider the perspective or bias of the person writing, consider the facts that they're including as the basis for their opinion (and the facts that they're excluding) and then see if I feel the need to modify my current position. I do the same with what passes for "news" these days, which is more often someone's spin on a situation than actual news.
__________________
ChicagoGal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 08:32 AM   #15
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
So much crap content on the Internet--it is pretty easy to find any prolific writers contradicting themselves in a previous piece of writing just because they are on deadline and cranking out the words with little regard to past arguments made on a topic. Especially when livelihood depends on clcks, as noted above.

I like to find the source of the data in an article that intrigues me and then look at that vs a writer's (often overwritten and perhaps self-serving) analysis of same, especially financial matters, and go from there. Our individual life experiences and current situations are more important to our decisions than the opinions of a "guru," even if those opinions happen to align with our decision on that particular day.
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 09:40 AM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 388
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover View Post
Why guess? Do a sample tax return in Taxcaster and see the real numbers.
+1

Ignore the "experts". For the most part, they are just writing click bait.

Educate yourself. Get help from folks that aren't looking to enrich themselves. This site and bogleheads.org are good resources.
__________________
mrfeh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 09:50 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Ready's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 1,823
My experience with financial experts, especially ones who make market predictions, is that they are correct about 50% of the time. So you can either listen to them, or just flip a coin. Either way should result in about the same probability of the information being correct.
__________________
Ready is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 10:07 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Nemo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Belleville, ONT
Posts: 4,318
From the outlet that terms itself "Canada's National Newspaper" this morning:

Quote:
Before the bell: Stocks rise, oil may be nearing a bottom
The Toronto Stock Exchange, down 113 (.77%) points at time of posting, hasn't been in positive territory at all today....however, the link is still up, and to add the proverbial insult to injury, anyone who wishes to access this 'story' has to pay a premium.
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."

The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
Nemo2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 10:13 AM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: philly
Posts: 876
LOL.
Thanks everyone. I can count on you guys to definitely lower my stress level. One of the problems I have that I'm scared witless that I'll make some horrible mistake and regret retiring. which leads to me to click on every email and link known to man.

stepping down off my ledge
__________________
bclover is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2015, 10:22 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,102
Quote:
Originally Posted by bclover View Post
One of the problems I have that I'm scared witless that I'll make some horrible mistake and regret retiring. which leads to me to click on every email and link known to man.
I think I recognize your problem.

What you are doing is a serious threat to your emotional and financial well being. Stop reading that crap. Seriously. Do your homework, pick an asset allocation using low-cost funds and stick with it.

If you do slip and see/hear a "The Sky is Falling!" financial tabloid headline, consider posting your concerns on this forum before you do something you might regret...
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
What financial radio show do you listen to regularly? Alan123 FIRE and Money 63 03-31-2011 01:55 PM
Thank-you !!! so much information here !!! sonny Hi, I am... 2 12-28-2007 01:17 PM
Calling Mortgage Experts (or non-experts, doesn't matter) 034runner Young Dreamers 6 10-10-2007 06:27 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:35 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.