How much do you listen/read/get information from experts?

[bclover]

This is more of a vent, so mods feel free to delete if it doesn't have any redeeming value....

So I haven't retired yet but I'd like to next year, I'll be 55. One aspect that I find frustrating is how everyone says how "easy" investing seems to be. Now I'm a scientist so maybe my brain is wired differently because I'm not finding it easy at all.
LOL, which is why I do appreciate you guys...

Anyhoo, here is one of my frustrations. conflicting stories every other day.

I've been trying to get a handle on my post retirement budget and reading up on taxes.

Got an article today from the Motley fool that says retirees often over state their tax bill and owe less than they thought.
two email later I got another email that says "retirees always underestimate their tax burden".

lol, so which is it? am I under or over estimating my bill

Am I the only one that gets frustrated at this or do you just carry on and try to weed out the best information for your particle situation?

[frayne]

Unfortunately one size does not fit all and so called experts are a dime a dozen. Read, digest and do the math and then do what is best for you. As far as investing, Bogle and Bernstein are about the only guys I count as experts.

When it comes to taxes, if you know your income it's pretty easy to calculate and determine your tax liability and then plan accordingly.

Just my two cents and YMMV.

[travelover]

Why guess? Do a sample tax return in Taxcaster and see the real numbers.

[REWahoo]

There are experts and then there are "experts". I consider the bunch at the Motley Fool to be aptly named.

Seriously, the first thing I do when reading a financial article is consider the source of the information and what that individual or institution may have to gain if you buy into their advice. Way too often those in the financial industry want you to keep buying/selling something to boost their fees/commissions. Those experts are salesmen in disguise.

Others are simply click bait, trying to get views on their page, sell a book or meet a deadline for publishing articles they have to write to stay employed.

[marko]

I wish there was a website that tallied the predictions of 'experts'.

There's always these guys on TV saying that bonds/equities/taxes/commodities/currencies will go going up/down drastically.

You never hear about whether they were right/wrong!!!

Of course, sometimes they'll come back six months later and say "see: I told you so" but the ones who are wrong never get questioned as to "what happened?"

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo There are experts and then there are "experts". I consider the bunch at the Motley Fool to be aptly named. Seriously, the first thing I do when reading a financial article is consider the source of the information and what that individual or institution may have to gain if you buy into their advice. Way too often those in the financial industry want you to keep buying/selling something to boost their fees/commissions. Those experts are salesmen in disguise. Others are simply click bait, trying to get views on their page, sell a book or meet a deadline for publishing articles they have to write to stay employed.

+1

Quote:

Originally Posted by bclover So I haven't retired yet but I'd like to next year, I'll be 55. One aspect that I find frustrating is how everyone says how "easy" investing seems to be. Now I'm a scientist so maybe my brain is wired differently because I'm not finding it easy at all. ./. Am I the only one that gets frustrated at this or do you just carry on and try to weed out the best information for your particle situation?

One of the lessons I learned the hard way is even when an author is an "expert" or established authority in the field, that does not mean the advice being given is helpful to me. It may be just the opposite.

I find the most helpful authors / experts are the ones that I read and follow over long periods of time and who's approach to investing and financial management coincide with my own. The least helpful are those who I read for the first time making very specific pronouncements or giving very precise advice.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by marko I wish there was a website that tallied the predictions of 'experts'.

It needs updating, but here is one: Stock Market Guru Grades - CXO Advisory

[Car-Guy]

I've always wonder why so many financial experts are still working for a living?

[vince]

I've gotten the most sound, unbiased advice on the markets and investing from AAII.

[easysurfer]

I think "experts" are like "breaking news" on TV. There's so many that the term gets watered down.

An example of how investing may be frustrating is you want an answer to a right asset allocation for, say a 50 year old. Well, there isn't one. Instead, asset allocation is a subjective thing. One person may say, I'm a big risk taker, the other my not. Or, have the right allocation so you can sleep at night. If you search for an exact percentage among the experts, you won't find one. In other words, the best expert to your investing is yourself.

[Nemo2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bclover am I under or over estimating my bill

Or are you under or over estimating the 'experts'?

[MichaelB]

Here's an interesting blog link from TBP on the same subject Market Forecasters Are Like Blind Squirrels… | The Big Picture

[Independent]

I read the experts daily. The ones I read post here: www.early-retirement.org

[ChicagoGal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo There are experts and then there are "experts". I consider the bunch at the Motley Fool to be aptly named. Seriously, the first thing I do when reading a financial article is consider the source of the information and what that individual or institution may have to gain if you buy into their advice. Way too often those in the financial industry want you to keep buying/selling something to boost their fees/commissions. Those experts are salesmen in disguise. Others are simply click bait, trying to get views on their page, sell a book or meet a deadline for publishing articles they have to write to stay employed.

+1

I try to read a lot, consider the perspective or bias of the person writing, consider the facts that they're including as the basis for their opinion (and the facts that they're excluding) and then see if I feel the need to modify my current position. I do the same with what passes for "news" these days, which is more often someone's spin on a situation than actual news.

[Bestwifeever]

So much crap content on the Internet--it is pretty easy to find any prolific writers contradicting themselves in a previous piece of writing just because they are on deadline and cranking out the words with little regard to past arguments made on a topic. Especially when livelihood depends on clcks, as noted above.

I like to find the source of the data in an article that intrigues me and then look at that vs a writer's (often overwritten and perhaps self-serving) analysis of same, especially financial matters, and go from there. Our individual life experiences and current situations are more important to our decisions than the opinions of a "guru," even if those opinions happen to align with our decision on that particular day.

[mrfeh]

Quote:

Originally Posted by travelover Why guess? Do a sample tax return in Taxcaster and see the real numbers.

+1

Ignore the "experts". For the most part, they are just writing click bait.

Educate yourself. Get help from folks that aren't looking to enrich themselves. This site and bogleheads.org are good resources.

[Ready]

My experience with financial experts, especially ones who make market predictions, is that they are correct about 50% of the time. So you can either listen to them, or just flip a coin. Either way should result in about the same probability of the information being correct.

[Nemo2]

From the outlet that terms itself "Canada's National Newspaper" this morning:

Quote:

Before the bell: Stocks rise, oil may be nearing a bottom

The Toronto Stock Exchange, down 113 (.77%) points at time of posting, hasn't been in positive territory at all today....however, the link is still up, and to add the proverbial insult to injury, anyone who wishes to access this 'story' has to pay a premium.

[bclover]

LOL.
Thanks everyone. I can count on you guys to definitely lower my stress level. One of the problems I have that I'm scared witless that I'll make some horrible mistake and regret retiring. which leads to me to click on every email and link known to man.

stepping down off my ledge

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bclover One of the problems I have that I'm scared witless that I'll make some horrible mistake and regret retiring. which leads to me to click on every email and link known to man.

I think I recognize your problem.

What you are doing is a serious threat to your emotional and financial well being. Stop reading that crap. Seriously. Do your homework, pick an asset allocation using low-cost funds and stick with it.

If you do slip and see/hear a "The Sky is Falling!" financial tabloid headline, consider posting your concerns on this forum before you do something you might regret...