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how much for another year of w*rk on Firecalc?
Old 10-13-2012, 11:30 AM   #1
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how much for another year of w*rk on Firecalc?

I am presently seeing 99% for 2014 and 91% on 2013. I'm pretty much decided to do the 2014, but am curious --for what additional Firecalc percentage would you work another year?
(I DO plan to work part-time after "retirement" but we would need to earn only a pittance, so could do it in about six hours. Many parts of my work I do enjoy, but definitely hate a lot of my present job. 2013-14 we plan to do work on the retirement place, so I'm thinking that year won't "count".)
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Old 10-13-2012, 11:37 AM   #2
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I have always thought of FIRECalc as a guideline, and not something as precise as an artillery ballistic table (which itself could be thrown off by wind conditions). The market may just have a couple of bad years, and takes 10% or more off your portfolio. Or it could surge ahead by that much. When you run FIRECalc at the end of 2013, who knows what it will tell you?

I have always played by ear. Can you just work another year, then see how it goes?
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Old 10-13-2012, 01:04 PM   #3
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I am at the point where ROI of x years*work must be measured against ROI of x years*life.

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Old 10-13-2012, 01:18 PM   #4
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I am at the point where ROI of x years*work must be measured against ROI of x years*life.

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Right. Another way to phrase the OP question is how many of my remaining years am I willing to spend working in order to improve the portfolio survival odds from 90% to 99%.
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Old 10-13-2012, 02:08 PM   #5
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MichaelB has it right: I am wondering for what percentage jump would you be willing to work another year.
As an academic, I can only retire during the summer, so 6 month increments are not possible.
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Old 10-13-2012, 02:28 PM   #6
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There is no universal percentage of course. I needed much more than 100% probability from FIRECALC to be comfortable with pulling the plug, but then it's just a rough tool that tells you how you would have done based on the past. You know what they say, "Past performance is not an indicator of future performance," could be better, could be worse...
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Old 10-13-2012, 03:26 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palomalou View Post
I am presently seeing 99% for 2014 and 91% on 2013. I'm pretty much decided to do the 2014, but am curious --for what additional Firecalc percentage would you work another year?
(I DO plan to work part-time after "retirement" but we would need to earn only a pittance, so could do it in about six hours. Many parts of my work I do enjoy, but definitely hate a lot of my present job. 2013-14 we plan to do work on the retirement place, so I'm thinking that year won't "count".)
We wanted to reach 95 to 100 percent before DH left his job. ...and we did. I used every calculator I could find and ran the numbers.

IMO, it depends on your discretionary expenses. IOW, would you be at 100% for your basic needs, 91% for basic and discretionary... In our case, I know what our (l) basic expenses would be, our (2) basic and some fun, and (3) basic and party on down. For now we enjoy door number 2. We could open door number 3, except I'm a bit of a worrier and want to easily have the funds in case of 'oh crap'.
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Old 10-13-2012, 03:33 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palomalou View Post
I am presently seeing 99% for 2014 and 91% on 2013. I'm pretty much decided to do the 2014, but am curious --for what additional Firecalc percentage would you work another year?
(I DO plan to work part-time after "retirement" but we would need to earn only a pittance, so could do it in about six hours. Many parts of my work I do enjoy, but definitely hate a lot of my present job. 2013-14 we plan to do work on the retirement place, so I'm thinking that year won't "count".)
In your case, I think going from 91% to 99% is worth the extra year. But keep in mind you might fall into this "one more year" question each year. For instance, if you retire in 2014, Firecalc is 99% If it is 99.9% in 2015, is THAT worth the extra year? The closer you get to the end, the law of diminishing returns takes effect. Just something to consider.
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Old 10-13-2012, 04:29 PM   #9
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As an academic, I can only retire during the summer, so 6 month increments are not possible.
So it's one year, yes or no? If you were to choose now and something went wrong, would you have enough to lower your standard of living and still get by? Cutting back on expenses when you're 75 is different if your budget is 2x the US average income vs. 1/2 the national average income. If possible, I think everyone should have a "plan B" or some type of fallback. If one more year gave me enough to have that option I would do it (work). If it made a big difference in my standard of living, that would also be a motivation to stay one more year.
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Old 10-13-2012, 05:07 PM   #10
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For me, it depends on my expected expenses, pension, nest egg, etc., then how early of a retirement, wild cards like kids/grand kids, healthcare, parents, etc. With that said, I would not ER without 100% (not including SS), but that's me as it could be a long ER at age 43. So, +9% for one more year would be worth it to me.

After hitting 100%, it's different going in to work as I'm not so stressed over the little things. Now, most are little things at 100%, but I'm putting away extra for my young kids college related expenses that I don't feel guilty if I can't pay but it's nice if we do scenario.
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Old 10-13-2012, 05:22 PM   #11
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If you were to choose now and something went wrong, would you have enough to lower your standard of living and still get by?
Right. I bailed in Dec. 2007. But I wasn't close to the edge so it didn't cause a problem when things drained out in '08 and '09. I'd have a hard time calling it if I depended on "normal" conditions.
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