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View Poll Results: What will be the duration of the current bear market?
3 to 12 months 14 31.82%
More than 12 Months but less than 18 14 31.82%
18 Months or More 16 36.36%
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Old 10-09-2008, 12:26 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I tend to agree. If we sell off as hard as '73-74 or '00-'02 in percentage terms, starting from relatively sane valuations compared to those peaks in 1973 and 2000, when the dust settles the market would look very cheap for those with a strong stomach and a willingness to wait years to be rewarded.
I don't think that it is necessarily to be expected that we will have to wait years. If history is any guide, many stocks will double and triple off the bottom in very short order.

Of course, my bullish bias should perhaps be taken as a warning of more pain to come!

ha
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Old 10-09-2008, 12:27 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum View Post
what comes out of a bear first & fastest, housing or stocks? (my uneducated guess is housing comes out first but stocks go back up faster?)
I think stocks are a leading indicator (anticipating better times ahead) and housing is a lagging indicator (people don't start buying houses again until the economy has picked up enough that they feel confident about their jobs).

So I would think stocks would be more likely to go up first.
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Old 10-09-2008, 12:35 PM   #23
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so then i am better off selling houses at bottom (assuming one) and putting that money into market?
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:32 PM   #24
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I think the current bear started in October of 2007. The clock doesn't start when you are already 20% down! (Notice March of 2000 in your list? March of 2000 was the market peak, not 20% down from the peak!)

We are ALREADY 12 months into this one!

Personally, I think we have another 3 to 6 months to go.

Audrey
This is my source as to the start date of the current bear market (not secular bear market) and the others start dates used when I started this thread. The start date of the bear market is based upon when the S&P 500 dropped 20% from its 12 month high. Does anyone out there have any sources that show a different start date for the current bear market?

Average Durations of Previous Bear Markets
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:34 PM   #25
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From that article:

This means that S&P 500 could fall to as low as 967 to 1068 until the end of 2008.

Except that it's already down to 963 and still sinking. Oops.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:38 PM   #26
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This is my source as to the start date of the current bear market (not secular bear market) and the others start dates used when I started this thread. The start date of the bear market is based upon when the S&P 500 dropped 20% from its 12 month high. Does anyone out there have any sources that show a different start date for the current bear market?

Average Durations of Previous Bear Markets
You may be misunderstanding your source. Look at his dates for start and finish of bear markets- they are all from the prior higher high to the next lower low without an intevening higher high..

Ha
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:08 PM   #27
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You may be misunderstanding your source. Look at his dates for start and finish of bear markets- they are all from the prior higher high to the next lower low without an intevening higher high..

Ha
The beginning and ending dates and percentage decline for nine bear markets since 1957 are the same as my original source with the exception of #1 and #9, where they're fairly close.

A Look at the Nine Bear Markets Since 1950 | AllFinancialMatters
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:27 PM   #28
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I guess you are saying something different from me, but i confess that I can't tell what you are saying.

ha
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:37 PM   #29
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Retire Soon:

From your reference link chart:
March 2000 was a market peak.
July 1990 was a market peak.
August 1987 was a market peak
etc.

What are you arguing? All your references confirm my explanation for when bear markets start. As per your chart, all the markets started at the prior market peak.

In fact your last source states that
Quote:
On July 7, 2008 S&P 500 went into bear market territory after sliding 20% from its October 9th 2007 all-time highs at 1565.15. The current bear market correction has been going on for more than nine months. So how long do bear markets last on average?
So - (assuming that your article was dated July 7 2008 or thereabouts which seems likely), it clearly states that the current bear market was already 9 months old. Today it's 12 months old.

Audrey
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:14 PM   #30
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Retire Soon:

From your reference link chart:
March 2000 was a market peak.
July 1990 was a market peak.
August 1987 was a market peak
etc.

What are you arguing? All your references confirm my explanation for when bear markets start. As per your chart, all the markets started at the prior market peak.

In fact your last source states that
So - (assuming that your article was dated July 7 2008 or thereabouts which seems likely), it clearly states that the current bear market was already 9 months old. Today it's 12 months old.

Audrey
Thanks for the excellent explanation. I'm not doing a good job of multitasking today as I lose my shirt.
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:18 PM   #31
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You're welcome.

We're all losing our shirt except for our brilliant tin-foil hat brethren who went 100% cash over 6 months ago.

Audrey
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:20 PM   #32
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what comes out of a bear first & fastest, housing or stocks? (my uneducated guess is housing comes out first but stocks go back up faster?)
stocks and the sector order is always the same. someone noticed it back in the 50's. i'll have to look it up in one of my books but i remember it starts with tech and ends with energy and industrial stocks
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