How much of your retirement income is "guaranteed"?

[samclem]

. . . how much of people's income comes from market returns (dividends, capital gains, sale of principal) and how much from "guaranteed" income streams not directly related to the stock or bond markets, like SS, pensions, SPIA, CD interest and perhaps even rent.

I'd quibble with the notion that income from rental properties are somehow more "guaranteed" than dividends. Vacancies, cash flow disruptions from repairs, etc . . . But, back to our regularly scheduled discussion.

 

[nun]

I'd quibble with the notion that income from rental properties are somehow more "guaranteed" than dividends. Vacancies, cash flow disruptions from repairs, etc . . . But, back to our regularly scheduled discussion.

Yeah the stability (or not) of rentals depends on a lot of factors. I suppose I'm biased because I've rented out an apartment for 18 years without a break in rent and I'd argue that with a signed lease you know what your income will be for the next year. With dividends it might be 3%......but 3% of what?

 

[lem1955]

It seems everybody has their own definitions of secure versus insecure. There are risks associated with every source of funds, but some are less risky than others. The commentary clarifies what each of us means by our answers. And the answers are interesting. I'm happy knowing that 45% of my funds come from less insecure sources and I estimate a 3.5% WR from mutual funds in our early retirement years. More "secure" and insecure sources will drop in ~10 years from now.

 

[Taxman59]

0% now, but when annuity and SSI kick in (14 years) nearly 100%! Overall 45 years of the plan, 60%.


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[Cassie]

100% from my DB Federal pension, covers living expenses & savings. I have a DC that I left in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP).

 

[nun]

A theme that jumps out at me is frugality. To successfully ER it helps that you LBYM while working so you can save aggressively and them when you retire secure income streams like SS cover a large proportion of your expenses. If you are frugal I think it gives you the confidence to retire and you're probably the sort of person who is good with budgets. So frugality gives you both the tools and the finances to retire.

 

[HFWR]

About a 55/45 split for me.

 

[pb4uski]

I'd quibble with the notion that income from rental properties are somehow more "guaranteed" than dividends. Vacancies, cash flow disruptions from repairs, etc . . . But, back to our regularly scheduled discussion.

I see your point but it is very situational. I'll be signing a lease extension this week for a single tenant commercial building where the tenant has been in place for over 30 years. OTOH, BIL has tenants in and out of his residential rental like a revolving door.

 

[nash031]

Planning for about 40% prior to SS in the form of military pension.

 

[Independent]

By deferring SS as long as we can, we will be able to cover 100% of our "normal" spending with SS after age 70.

I also have a non-COLA'd pension. When I retired at 59, it covered 100% of our "normal" spending. However, it shrinks every year, so it's hard to determine an average prospectively.

Our actual spending, which may include travel, gifts, a new car, a move to a new house, or nursing home expenses, is unpredictable. So it's hard to calculate a percent of that number.

 

[UpAnchor]

How much of your retirement income is "guaranteed"?

No pensions, but delaying SS to 70 (6 yrs to go) should provide about 40-50% of anticipated expenses, including discretionary. Meanwhile, we maintain 2-3 yrs expenses in cash and may consider a SPIA or QLAC before it's all over. Withdrawals from TIRAs and Roths at Vgd/Fido (50/50 AA) will constitute the "wobbly" portion.


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[clifp]

Yeah the stability (or not) of rentals depends on a lot of factors. I suppose I'm biased because I've rented out an apartment for 18 years without a break in rent and I'd argue that with a signed lease you know what your income will be for the next year. With dividends it might be 3%......but 3% of what?

Rental income has been the least stable of my income source, tenant leaving and trashing the place really plays havoc with the cash flow.

At age 70 SS should be about 20% of my income.

 

[2soon2tell]

We are blessed. 100%

DW- Teacher Retirement Pension

Me- SS, Small Pension, VA Disability Comp

 

[unno2002]

I see none of it as “guaranteed”.

Annuity companies can go bankrupt. Social Security can become means tested, or eliminated. Military or civilian government pensions can be cut at the whim of the feds. And of course, our politicians keep creating more currency, making every dollar in your accounts work less.

 

[samclem]

I see your point but it is very situational. I'll be signing a lease extension this week for a single tenant commercial building where the tenant has been in place for over 30 years. OTOH, BIL has tenants in and out of his residential rental like a revolving door.

Yes, it is situational in all cases. There are companies with histories of paying steady, growing dividends that top 18 (or 30) years. But, still, depending on a single company's dividend, a tenant, or a rental property for a significant portion of my income would make me less comfortable than having that income coming from scores/hundreds of sources in the aggregate.

 

[World Traveler]

I'm thinking diversification. What I've learned is having many sources of income is a good thing.50% from military pension 25% rentals, 20% stock/bond portfolio and 5% megacorp annuity. Plan is FI 55. 75% living expenses 25% DI.



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[nun]

I'm thinking diversification. What I've learned is having many sources of income is a good thing.50% from military pension 25% rentals, 20% stock/bond portfolio and 5% megacorp annuity. Plan is FI 55. 75% living expenses 25% DI.



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That's my attitude too.....if all you have is stocks and bonds I don't think your income sources are diverse enough. Unfortunately most people don't have access to pensions and annuities are pretty bad value right now and CDs aren't going to give good value right now, so that leaves rentals.

 

[Totoro]

0% right now. No pension, no SS (or similar). I may get something 35+ years from now, 2.5k or so per year tops.

And almost none of my assets are tax sheltered. I do have universal healthcare. That's very reassuring.


Garantueed I'd say is about 0% real return on my investments.

 

[PhrugalPhan]

When the GF and I retire (3 yrs for her, 7 for me), the pensions should cover 100% of our expenses. When SS kick in, that should be another 50%. And based on our various investments, a 3% SWR should most likely be another 50% of expenses. This assumes we don't expand our expenses at that time (probably will, but hopefully not too much). I guess to the OP's question, that makes guaranteed income about 75% of total income at the end.

 

[Live And Learn]

Zero for us. In 5 years when DH collects SS it will be 10%; in 18 years when I collect it will be 30%. Please bear in mind that my budget for healthcare for 2 people is $28k (28% of my total spending)

 

[hurricane harry]

retirement in 2 years will be %75 funded by pension and annuity, at 62 SS will make it %100 funded by guaranteed sources

 

[rodi]

Zero for us. In 5 years when DH collects SS it will be 10%; in 18 years when I collect it will be 30%. Please bear in mind that my budget for healthcare for 2 people is $28k (28% of my total spending)

Won't your healthcare drop when your husband goes on Medicare and again when you do?

 

[Koolau]

About 40% of mine if from a local government pension ( Large CA city, not in the state Calpers system ) If they go BK and stop paying , I will start seizing city assets to sell or lease out. Part of this draconian plan would be to commandeer a group of parking meters in a busy area, and collect the quarters and nickels until my tiny pension $ is met for the mo.

Heh, heh, your back-up plan didn't work out too well for Cool Hand Luke (but YMMV.)

 

[kaudrey]

Still working, but I am projecting that my fed pension will cover about 60% of our expenses. When both of our SS benefits kick in (10 to 13 years after retirement), that would boost coverage to about 85%.

I have a big travel budget lined up....

 

[hnzw_rui]

Still working here, too (target retirement 2040). Projecting pension to replace 100% of my current gross income (have some upcoming step increases due to a promotion, ~40% salary increase). Taking pension+457 contributions and FICA taxes out of the equation, "take-home pension" will actually be 125% of my current take-home pay or around 170% of current expenditures.

Alas, housing is my big unknown. We've got really, really, really cheap rent right now. However, it's in an old apartment building on the 3rd floor with no elevators. We might eventually need to move to a single-story house or a building with elevators to accommodate aging joints. If so, housing costs could go up 2-4x.

The 457, Roth and after-tax savings will either be gravy or if I get really, really lucky, will enable me to retire in my 40s.