Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
How much to do trust FIREcal?
Old 06-30-2010, 04:01 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 412
How much to do trust FIREcal?

I am wondering about how much of trust in FIREcalc people have? In particular the onces who retired early (in 50s for example) and were retired for awhile, 7-15 years.

And also, what other FIRE like calculators do people like/use?

I personally like the one from Fidelity.

Thx
__________________

__________________
wanaberetiree is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-30-2010, 04:04 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Its a tool. How much do you trust a hammer?
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:06 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 412
I trust trust a hammer 100%
__________________
wanaberetiree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:13 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Given the limits of the tool...

1) Assumes that past is prologue. YMMV.

2) Uses debate-ably small amounts of highly correlated market samples to make predictions. Note for many of those samples the US went through some tremendous growth periods. You need ask yourself if something like that can occur again ?

Then yes I believe that FIRECALC is a pretty good tool.


Check out the optimal retirement calculator for a tax efficient peak at retirement. Optimal Retirement Calculator and Retirement Decision Support System

Also check out https://basic.esplanner.com/ESPlannerBasic/family-info
for a lifetime consumption smoothing approach to retirement. The family version is free to use.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:13 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanaberetiree View Post
I trust trust a hammer 100%
I don't know, I've hit a few fingers from time to time, but I guess that would be my fault not the tools.
__________________
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:20 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
I use FireCalc, Fido and ORP. I may have overlooked it, but I don't believe Fido has an area for expense ratio...FireCalc does. As said before, calculators are simply tools. I'm on the conservative/weenie side and withdraw less money than 'they' say I can take.

We're in our mid 50's and both been retired for over a year.
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:21 PM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 882
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454 View Post
I don't know, I've hit a few fingers from time to time, but I guess that would be my fault not the tools.
Indeed. Never had a hammer not work. Like you, I have had it land on the wrong target. Probable user error.
__________________
jebmke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:29 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Wanaberetiree, trust is a very personal thing. I suggest you do some reading on how FIRECalc works and come to your own conclusion.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:31 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,626
Otar's retirement calculator is competitive in this arena:

otar retirement calculator

His book "Unveiling the Retirement Myth" is a must-read.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 04:38 PM   #10
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
I trust FIREcalc to tell me whether my plan would have worked in the past. I don't trust FIREcalc to tell me whether my plan will work in the future, though I think it gives me a good reference point.
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 07:19 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
I trust FIREcalc to tell me whether my plan would have worked in the past. I don't trust FIREcalc to tell me whether my plan will work in the future, though I think it gives me a good reference point.
This describes my philosophy, also -- although I may be slightly more unsure about the "reference point."

The end of a recent thread brought me to this conclusion... you should read the whole thread, however, and not take things out of context.

Variable SWR

In any event, there are plenty of "Monte Carlo" calculators out there -- try em all and see which one (or so) "floats your boat."
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 07:28 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonBoyd View Post
In any event, there are plenty of "Monte Carlo" calculators out there -- try em all and see which one (or so) "floats your boat."
Just to be sure we're not confusing wanaberetiree, I think it important we point out FIRECalc isn't a Monte Carlo calculator.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 07:36 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Firecalc is just one way of looking at things. There are no sure ways to know what the future will hold. I don't trust anything 100% as far as finances go.
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 07:45 PM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
KM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 391
Not retired yet, so I cant really say, but the one thing I noticed is that if the "output spreadsheets" are actually what is used in the calculations, then it doesnt work for me for two reasons:

1 - it ignores you when you say your pension is not inflation-adjusted. It inflates it anyway (or at least the spreadsheet shows it inflated)
2 - it seems to get confused after 30 years, but again, that may just be the mapping to the spreadsheet output.

I use it, but I also use numerous other tools, including my own spreadsheet. I am usually happy when all the tools say I am on plan.
__________________
KM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 08:11 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,288
Quote:
Originally Posted by KM View Post
Not retired yet, so I cant really say, but the one thing I noticed is that if the "output spreadsheets" are actually what is used in the calculations, then it doesnt work for me for two reasons:

1 - it ignores you when you say your pension is not inflation-adjusted. It inflates it anyway (or at least the spreadsheet shows it inflated)
2 - it seems to get confused after 30 years, but again, that may just be the mapping to the spreadsheet output.

I use it, but I also use numerous other tools, including my own spreadsheet. I am usually happy when all the tools say I am on plan.
One of the spread sheet outputs is only good for a 30 year cycle - anything else throws off the formulas. I also have trouble following some of the spread sheet figures, but when I check the basic output against simple numbers (to make errors easier to see), they seem to match my expectations.

I'm not so sure it handles delaying a non-cola pension correctly. I get the feeling that if you say you can start collecting $30,000 in ten years, it is doing some adjustment to bring that $30,000 to an inflation adjusted $30,000, but I'm not sure.

edit/add: Here's the thread we discussed this in, not sure any conclusion was made but some of us suspected that the spreadsheet is *just* an output, it isn't actually used in the calculations, so funny stuff there may not mean anything in terms of the success % results. Or maybe it does. But even that is mostly a guess.

I believe I am seeing an issue in how non-COLA'd pensions are handled



-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 08:29 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanaberetiree View Post
I trust trust a hammer 100%
The right tool for the job is important.

The 4% rule, and Firecalc are 'rules of thumb'.
You have to individualize you planning for your situation - prepare a budget, spending tracking, cash flow, investing plans and, a couple of years of expense in cash,
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 08:33 PM   #17
Recycles dryer sheets
KM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 391
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
One of the spread sheet outputs is only good for a 30 year cycle - anything else throws off the formulas. I also have trouble following some of the spread sheet figures, but when I check the basic output against simple numbers (to make errors easier to see), they seem to match my expectations.

I'm not so sure it handles delaying a non-cola pension correctly. I get the feeling that if you say you can start collecting $30,000 in ten years, it is doing some adjustment to bring that $30,000 to an inflation adjusted $30,000, but I'm not sure.

-ERD50

Agreed - I tried a simple two simple calcs with $0 savings, a pension amount that matched the spending need. First run had the pension COLA'd and the second did not. The results were different in a way I expected. It just makes me wonder what else isnt working quite how I assume/expect.

That and I plan on living to 100, so I want 45 years of planning.....
__________________
KM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 08:44 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
KM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 391
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
One of the spread sheet outputs is only good for a 30 year cycle - anything else throws off the formulas. I also have trouble following some of the spread sheet figures, but when I check the basic output against simple numbers (to make errors easier to see), they seem to match my expectations.

I'm not so sure it handles delaying a non-cola pension correctly. I get the feeling that if you say you can start collecting $30,000 in ten years, it is doing some adjustment to bring that $30,000 to an inflation adjusted $30,000, but I'm not sure.

edit/add: Here's the thread we discussed this in, not sure any conclusion was made but some of us suspected that the spreadsheet is *just* an output, it isn't actually used in the calculations, so funny stuff there may not mean anything in terms of the success % results. Or maybe it does. But even that is mostly a guess.

I believe I am seeing an issue in how non-COLA'd pensions are handled - Early Retirement & Financial Independence Community



-ERD50

Ahhh......yes. I was in the FIRECALC support thread looking for something a while back and read this. This was actually the thread that sent me back to FIRECALC to look more at my pension stuff. Thank you, I am not sure I would have noticed it otherwise (or the 30 year issue).

I agree, it may just be the spreadsheet output, but it would be really nice if we could get that confirmed from someone.
__________________
KM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 08:52 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by KM View Post
I agree, it may just be the spreadsheet output, but it would be really nice if we could get that confirmed from someone.
I'm sure it will come as no surprise that the guy who wrote FIRECalc has retired.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2010, 09:06 PM   #20
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,619
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I'm sure it will come as no surprise that the guy who wrote FIRECalc has retired.
He's so retired... that he's even retired from E-R.org...
__________________

__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Trust funds or is there a better way? farmerbrown FIRE and Money 25 05-15-2009 10:27 PM
Setting Up a Trust Dancer373 FIRE and Money 18 03-06-2007 10:43 PM
Trust planning Arif FIRE and Money 14 06-27-2006 07:10 PM
Trust/Will Preparation? OldAgePensioner Other topics 11 11-01-2005 09:38 AM
Living Trust johnblake Other topics 7 11-24-2004 10:07 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:41 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.