mistermike40
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2014
- Messages
- 364
I joined some months ago but really just started checking out these forums today. Everyone seems to have a "target value" that they want to achieve before retiring. For some it's $1M, others $1.5M, or $2M, $3M, etc.
My question: how exactly is this number calculated?
A little about my situation: I'm almost 55, thinking of retiring at 56. I have a very nice pension, a decent 401k, some stocks/index funds, and social security. Do all of these four components go into determing my "worth"? I'm also thinking that it's all calculated in today's dollars.
My attempt at determining this value: I took my 401k as is, my other investments as is (they will adjust with the market). Pension is fairly straightforward... I know exactly how much it will be each month, so I can simply sum each yearly total. Social security is more tricky... it theoretically adjusts with inflation (and increases when my wife can collect, at a bit later date). Length of retirement was assumed 30 years. I didn't include home equity because we plan to use this to downsize and pay cash for our next home.
So... I derived these four values:
- 401k: took existing value
- Other investments: took their existing values
- Pension: summed the actual amounts I would receive from 56 to 86 years of age
- Soc Sec: I took the projected value from the initial date I plan to start collecting and "backed it up" to today's dollars (i.e. I decreased the amount by 3% for each year back to 2015). I did the same with my wife's SS benefits. I then multiplied these new annual amounts by the number of years they will be collected (until age 86).
Using this method I came up with a "worth" of $1.96M for 30 years (and $2.25M for 35 years). This values seems high to me, though investment calculators (including FIRECalc) say I can retire at 56 with an annual withdrawal of between $70-$80K.
Do these numbers/calculations seem correct to you guys? Did I handle the pension and social security portions correctly? Many thanks in advance!
EDIT: after reading my post, I realized the "starting" pension should be adjusted to 2015 dollars. I took the amount and backed it up 30 years (decreasing by 3% each year). This results in a new "30 year" worth of $1.6M which seems much more in line with my expectations. Again, I appreciate any comments or other approaches to determining your "number"!
My question: how exactly is this number calculated?
A little about my situation: I'm almost 55, thinking of retiring at 56. I have a very nice pension, a decent 401k, some stocks/index funds, and social security. Do all of these four components go into determing my "worth"? I'm also thinking that it's all calculated in today's dollars.
My attempt at determining this value: I took my 401k as is, my other investments as is (they will adjust with the market). Pension is fairly straightforward... I know exactly how much it will be each month, so I can simply sum each yearly total. Social security is more tricky... it theoretically adjusts with inflation (and increases when my wife can collect, at a bit later date). Length of retirement was assumed 30 years. I didn't include home equity because we plan to use this to downsize and pay cash for our next home.
So... I derived these four values:
- 401k: took existing value
- Other investments: took their existing values
- Pension: summed the actual amounts I would receive from 56 to 86 years of age
- Soc Sec: I took the projected value from the initial date I plan to start collecting and "backed it up" to today's dollars (i.e. I decreased the amount by 3% for each year back to 2015). I did the same with my wife's SS benefits. I then multiplied these new annual amounts by the number of years they will be collected (until age 86).
Using this method I came up with a "worth" of $1.96M for 30 years (and $2.25M for 35 years). This values seems high to me, though investment calculators (including FIRECalc) say I can retire at 56 with an annual withdrawal of between $70-$80K.
Do these numbers/calculations seem correct to you guys? Did I handle the pension and social security portions correctly? Many thanks in advance!
EDIT: after reading my post, I realized the "starting" pension should be adjusted to 2015 dollars. I took the amount and backed it up 30 years (decreasing by 3% each year). This results in a new "30 year" worth of $1.6M which seems much more in line with my expectations. Again, I appreciate any comments or other approaches to determining your "number"!
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