First, I resign myself to the fact that I cannot predict the future. Second, there is no reason that the future average returns for a given asset class will have anything to do with the past average returns for the same asset class. Third, I track what we have done with our portfolio for the last couple of decades. It pretty much matches what Merriman's web site www.fundadvice.com
has reported for our asset allocation.
So I look in the table provided by Merriman's web site at this link: http://www.fundadvice.com/articles/b...llocation.html
, ignore all the caveats I just made and I use that as an average total return going forward for our asset mix.