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How to Estimate Social Security Pmt with RE Gap
Old 07-25-2018, 03:48 PM   #1
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How to Estimate Social Security Pmt with RE Gap

I'm 50 and not yet retired. I am doing the analysis to see if I can retire this year, and I want to estimate my SS benefit, assuming I claim when I turn 70 years old. The estimate provided on the SSA web site assumes I'll continue to earn my current salary until I claim.

Does anybody know of a resource that will calculate SS benefits for early retirees?
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Old 07-25-2018, 03:59 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bevette View Post
I'm 50 and not yet retired. I am doing the analysis to see if I can retire this year, and I want to estimate my SS benefit, assuming I claim when I turn 70 years old. The estimate provided on the SSA web site assumes I'll continue to earn my current salary until I claim.

Does anybody know of a resource that will calculate SS benefits for early retirees?
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html and put in zeros for years with no income
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Old 07-25-2018, 04:14 PM   #3
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Thanks omni!
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Old 07-25-2018, 10:13 PM   #4
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I was unable to get this to work. I installed it & it is supposed to be in Windows (C Program Files (x86) but when I go there it's not there & when I do a search it's not found. Does anyone know of an easier way - like a website so I don't have to install anything?
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Old 07-25-2018, 11:08 PM   #5
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Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.
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Old 07-25-2018, 11:20 PM   #6
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Thank you! This looks much more do-able.
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Old 07-26-2018, 12:13 AM   #7
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I have not done this in a while. There was a way to get an estimate that just required some personal info. It gives the three standard cases which assume continuing income. You can select to add another case. Do so and put your income as 0 and the SS start date where you want.

anypia will let do multiple changes in income. The simple method assumes all the same income.
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Old 07-26-2018, 04:10 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by bingybear View Post
I have not done this in a while. There was a way to get an estimate that just required some personal info. It gives the three standard cases which assume continuing income. You can select to add another case. Do so and put your income as 0 and the SS start date where you want.

anypia will let do multiple changes in income. The simple method assumes all the same income.
I believe you are referring to the below SS Estimator site. I use this site. It takes about 5 minutes of input.

https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html
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Old 07-26-2018, 05:43 AM   #9
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copy of my post for 2016
Quote:
go to retirement estimator
click on Estimate Your Retirement Benefits
You will need to fill out info identifying yourself. I believe this will include info about previous years SS earnings.
When you get through this it will provide the 3 typical estimates that assume you work until you start withdrawing. It will also allow you to add a new estimate, do this. Select the age you want to start taking SS and the assumed earned income for the intervening years. For this select 0. This should give you the estimate you are looking for.
AnyPIA is good. Downside is that you need to populate all your historic data. It does allow you to make many other test cases. But for a quick check when you can assume all future earnings are 0, the retirement estimator is a quick way to get it done.
link to old post
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:14 AM   #10
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When I was putting together my ER plan back in 2007-08, one thing I did was to try to predict what my SS benefit would be after I stopped working near the end of 2008. I went into the SSA website and after looking up the benefit calculation, I created a spreadsheet which mimicked it. This included a bunch of zero wage earning years because I had only 26 years with nonzero wage earnings.


However, I wasn't sure I did it right so I wanted a way to check my work. I found the ANYPIA program and downloaded it. I had some trouble getting it to work at the time but I knew I would try again at some point. A few years later, after I had become a member here and in Bogleheads, I had gotten some advice about how I could get it to work right (I don't recall what it was, but it was something easy or stupid, or I just got inspired enough to give it another try), I got the ANYPIA program to work.


ANYPIA's estimated monthly benefit was only a dollar or so away from my spreadsheet, so I knew I had my spreadsheet right. With no wage earnings in the calculation since 2008, my SS benefit was basically frozen. Every few years or so, I would go to the SSA website and cut and paste a set of updated wage index factors which would change the estimated monthly benefit a few dollars tops.
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:16 AM   #11
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A few months before DW claimed SS we visited the local office to verify the amount she would be getting. They gave us the exact same number as the online retirement estimator. She had stopped working several years earlier so that removed some complications, but it told me the estimator is a good tool.
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:28 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
I believe you are referring to the below SS Estimator site. I use this site. It takes about 5 minutes of input.

https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html
+1 To this. Just make sure that you enter $0 for last years earnings to force it to assume $0 for future years earnings.

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Old 07-26-2018, 08:00 AM   #13
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Since you're estimating a payment that starts 20 years from now, you should keep in mind the projection that the Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2034 (16 years from now), resulting in across-the-board benefit cuts of 20% or so. Of course, this is only a projection, and there's lots of disagreement about whether Congress would take action between now and then to affect this situation. But if you're going to use this as an important part of your long-term plan, just keep it in mind.
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:21 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by PartIrish View Post
Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.
This worked brilliantly for me. It's exactly the data I was looking for. And it was so easy. Thank you!

When I tried SSA benefit estimator tool, they couldn't validate the information I provided, so I wasn't able to use it. But now I'm worried that it wouldn't validate me. I'll give them a call to investigate.
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:57 PM   #15
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This worked brilliantly for me. It's exactly the data I was looking for. And it was so easy. Thank you!

When I tried SSA benefit estimator tool, they couldn't validate the information I provided, so I wasn't able to use it. But now I'm worried that it wouldn't validate me. I'll give them a call to investigate.
You aren't the first one who had issues with this site, but it worked for my brother and me.
Not sure what is the common theme of problems.
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Old 07-26-2018, 07:04 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by PartIrish View Post
Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.
I just ran this, worked great, very easy to use. Thanks!!

I compared it to a spreadsheet I'd created a few years ago while planning to retire, and the numbers are within a few dollars.

That's pretty neat how the site lets you copy and paste right from the government's SS page to get your actual recorded earnings.
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Old 07-26-2018, 07:28 PM   #17
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I just ran this, worked great, very easy to use. Thanks!!

I compared it to a spreadsheet I'd created a few years ago while planning to retire, and the numbers are within a few dollars.

That's pretty neat how the site lets you copy and paste right from the government's SS page to get your actual recorded earnings.
Yes, I got this link from the Bogle site, and found it worked very well; I particularly like the sliding graph feature that allows you to see how time changes your benefit. Neither the SSA site nor AnyPia worked for me, but perhaps because I use a Mac. The only difference is this alternate tool gives estimated benefit in current dollars, whereas I believe the SSA site uses inflated dollars. My SSA.gov online account shows about $200/month more than this social security tools site, which I think is just the current vs. future dollars, since I am within a 5 years of FRA.
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Old 07-27-2018, 05:27 AM   #18
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all future predicted benefits are in todays dollars. Besides manual manipulation, is there a way to figure in an assumed COLA for future dollars?
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Old 07-27-2018, 06:21 AM   #19
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Estimating COLA, and the effects of inflation, AND what the pols may decide to do about SS, over the 20 year period before you start taking it, and the 15-20 year period you hope to continue to take it=WAG.
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:27 AM   #20
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Estimating COLA, and the effects of inflation, AND what the pols may decide to do about SS, over the 20 year period before you start taking it, and the 15-20 year period you hope to continue to take it=WAG.
There is a free online SS calculator which allows one to enter assumptions for future CPI changes and also wage-inflation, but then gives the output in today's dollars. If one is not yet collecting a benefit, assumptions for wage inflation which do not exactly track CPI will change the benefit (in terms of today's spendable dollars). I think it's the only tool available which does this. Anypia's output is always ACTUAL future dollars, and does not adjust for "today's" dollars (unless you use zero as assumptions for wage and price inflation, which is not a good set of assumptions).

The calculator lists for you what SS believes to be the most likely for inflation in the future, and (if you wish), you can enter your own non-zero assumptions to see how things might change.

It's the last link on this page: https://www.doctoredmoney.org/tools-and-calculators/

I'm affiliated with the (non-commercial) site I've linked to, so I hope that doesn't violate any forum rules.
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