How to Estimate Social Security Pmt with RE Gap

[bevette]

I'm 50 and not yet retired. I am doing the analysis to see if I can retire this year, and I want to estimate my SS benefit, assuming I claim when I turn 70 years old. The estimate provided on the SSA web site assumes I'll continue to earn my current salary until I claim.

Does anybody know of a resource that will calculate SS benefits for early retirees?

 

[omni550]

I'm 50 and not yet retired. I am doing the analysis to see if I can retire this year, and I want to estimate my SS benefit, assuming I claim when I turn 70 years old. The estimate provided on the SSA web site assumes I'll continue to earn my current salary until I claim.

Does anybody know of a resource that will calculate SS benefits for early retirees?

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html and put in zeros for years with no income

 

[bevette]

Thanks omni!

 

[HtownRose]

I was unable to get this to work. I installed it & it is supposed to be in Windows (C Program Files (x86) but when I go there it's not there & when I do a search it's not found. Does anyone know of an easier way - like a website so I don't have to install anything?

 

[PartIrish]

Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.

 

[HtownRose]

Thank you! This looks much more do-able.

 

[bingybear]

I have not done this in a while. There was a way to get an estimate that just required some personal info. It gives the three standard cases which assume continuing income. You can select to add another case. Do so and put your income as 0 and the SS start date where you want.

anypia will let do multiple changes in income. The simple method assumes all the same income.

 

[Dtail]

I have not done this in a while. There was a way to get an estimate that just required some personal info. It gives the three standard cases which assume continuing income. You can select to add another case. Do so and put your income as 0 and the SS start date where you want.

anypia will let do multiple changes in income. The simple method assumes all the same income.

I believe you are referring to the below SS Estimator site. I use this site. It takes about 5 minutes of input.

https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html

 

[bingybear]

copy of my post for 2016

go to retirement estimator
click on Estimate Your Retirement Benefits
You will need to fill out info identifying yourself. I believe this will include info about previous years SS earnings.
When you get through this it will provide the 3 typical estimates that assume you work until you start withdrawing. It will also allow you to add a new estimate, do this. Select the age you want to start taking SS and the assumed earned income for the intervening years. For this select 0. This should give you the estimate you are looking for.
AnyPIA is good. Downside is that you need to populate all your historic data. It does allow you to make many other test cases. But for a quick check when you can assume all future earnings are 0, the retirement estimator is a quick way to get it done.

link to old post

 

[scrabbler1]

When I was putting together my ER plan back in 2007-08, one thing I did was to try to predict what my SS benefit would be after I stopped working near the end of 2008. I went into the SSA website and after looking up the benefit calculation, I created a spreadsheet which mimicked it. This included a bunch of zero wage earning years because I had only 26 years with nonzero wage earnings.


However, I wasn't sure I did it right so I wanted a way to check my work. I found the ANYPIA program and downloaded it. I had some trouble getting it to work at the time but I knew I would try again at some point. A few years later, after I had become a member here and in Bogleheads, I had gotten some advice about how I could get it to work right (I don't recall what it was, but it was something easy or stupid, or I just got inspired enough to give it another try), I got the ANYPIA program to work.


ANYPIA's estimated monthly benefit was only a dollar or so away from my spreadsheet, so I knew I had my spreadsheet right. With no wage earnings in the calculation since 2008, my SS benefit was basically frozen. Every few years or so, I would go to the SSA website and cut and paste a set of updated wage index factors which would change the estimated monthly benefit a few dollars tops.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

A few months before DW claimed SS we visited the local office to verify the amount she would be getting. They gave us the exact same number as the online retirement estimator. She had stopped working several years earlier so that removed some complications, but it told me the estimator is a good tool.

 

[gauss]

I believe you are referring to the below SS Estimator site. I use this site. It takes about 5 minutes of input.

https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html

+1 To this. Just make sure that you enter $0 for last years earnings to force it to assume $0 for future years earnings.

-gauss

 

[Crabby Mike]

Since you're estimating a payment that starts 20 years from now, you should keep in mind the projection that the Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2034 (16 years from now), resulting in across-the-board benefit cuts of 20% or so. Of course, this is only a projection, and there's lots of disagreement about whether Congress would take action between now and then to affect this situation. But if you're going to use this as an important part of your long-term plan, just keep it in mind.

 

[bevette]

Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.

This worked brilliantly for me. It's exactly the data I was looking for. And it was so easy. Thank you!

When I tried SSA benefit estimator tool, they couldn't validate the information I provided, so I wasn't able to use it. But now I'm worried that it wouldn't validate me. I'll give them a call to investigate.

 

[Dtail]

This worked brilliantly for me. It's exactly the data I was looking for. And it was so easy. Thank you!

When I tried SSA benefit estimator tool, they couldn't validate the information I provided, so I wasn't able to use it. But now I'm worried that it wouldn't validate me. I'll give them a call to investigate.

You aren't the first one who had issues with this site, but it worked for my brother and me.
Not sure what is the common theme of problems.

 

[CaptTom]

Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.

I just ran this, worked great, very easy to use. Thanks!!

I compared it to a spreadsheet I'd created a few years ago while planning to retire, and the numbers are within a few dollars.

That's pretty neat how the site lets you copy and paste right from the government's SS page to get your actual recorded earnings.

 

[PartIrish]

I just ran this, worked great, very easy to use. Thanks!!

I compared it to a spreadsheet I'd created a few years ago while planning to retire, and the numbers are within a few dollars.

That's pretty neat how the site lets you copy and paste right from the government's SS page to get your actual recorded earnings.

Yes, I got this link from the Bogle site, and found it worked very well; I particularly like the sliding graph feature that allows you to see how time changes your benefit. Neither the SSA site nor AnyPia worked for me, but perhaps because I use a Mac. The only difference is this alternate tool gives estimated benefit in current dollars, whereas I believe the SSA site uses inflated dollars. My SSA.gov online account shows about $200/month more than this social security tools site, which I think is just the current vs. future dollars, since I am within a 5 years of FRA.

 

[Perryinva]

all future predicted benefits are in todays dollars. Besides manual manipulation, is there a way to figure in an assumed COLA for future dollars?

 

[HadEnuff]

Estimating COLA, and the effects of inflation, AND what the pols may decide to do about SS, over the 20 year period before you start taking it, and the 15-20 year period you hope to continue to take it=WAG.

 

[vice]

Estimating COLA, and the effects of inflation, AND what the pols may decide to do about SS, over the 20 year period before you start taking it, and the 15-20 year period you hope to continue to take it=WAG.

There is a free online SS calculator which allows one to enter assumptions for future CPI changes and also wage-inflation, but then gives the output in today's dollars. If one is not yet collecting a benefit, assumptions for wage inflation which do not exactly track CPI will change the benefit (in terms of today's spendable dollars). I think it's the only tool available which does this. Anypia's output is always ACTUAL future dollars, and does not adjust for "today's" dollars (unless you use zero as assumptions for wage and price inflation, which is not a good set of assumptions).

The calculator lists for you what SS believes to be the most likely for inflation in the future, and (if you wish), you can enter your own non-zero assumptions to see how things might change.

It's the last link on this page: https://www.doctoredmoney.org/tools-and-calculators/

I'm affiliated with the (non-commercial) site I've linked to, so I hope that doesn't violate any forum rules.

 

[rodi]

Hi vice -
Nice calculator. And welcome to e-r dot org. Please take a moment to introduce yourself on the "Hi, I Am" board. Tell us about yourself. Please also review the Community Rules and familiarize yourself with the posting guidelines.

Again - welcome.

 

[vice]

all future predicted benefits are in todays dollars. Besides manual manipulation, is there a way to figure in an assumed COLA for future dollars?

Note that all official SS calculators are "kinda" in today's dollars, in that they assume zero growth for both wages and price inflation. So if inflation=0, then by definition the output is in today's dollars, because it assumes today's dollars never change.

The official SS detailed calculator (Anypia) will give you the benefit amounts in actual FUTURE dollars IF you enter a non-zero assumption for CPI. So that's one tool you can use for making any assumption about COLA you wish. I'm not sure why anyone would want to know the benefit it terms of a future dollar amount, however. It's the spending power or amount of wage replacement that's important.

Also note that prior to age 62, your benefit is affected by WAGE inflation, and after age 62 it's affected by PRICE inflation. So the concept of "today's dollars" gets tricky if not rigorously defined in the question. Historically, wages have risen faster than prices. So if one assumes zero for both wages and prices when calculating the benefit (as SS online calculator all do), it will underestimate the spending power of your future benefit. This is a problem common to (almost) all free and paid calculators. The SS system is predicting that wages will continue to rise faster than inflation, but does not use those assumptions in their calculations.

Note that the official SS statements available at myssa.gov (the "green" ones) which estimate a future benefit ALSO assume no wage change and no price changes. For those not close to age 62, your benefit estimate will likely be smaller than the actual benefit you will receive (adjusted for inflation). I hope that makes sense.

 

[MarieIG]

I can't get onto the SS website. They don't believe that I am me. I have gotten statements in the past, the last one a few years ago.

 

[Crabby Mike]

I can't get onto the SS website. They don't believe that I am me. I have gotten statements in the past, the last one a few years ago.

They changed the login requirements in the last year or so. You have to create an online account, change the password periodically, and each time you log in, you'll need a confirmation code that they send by text. All of the instructions are available at ssa.gov, and I assume there's a help #.

 

[vice]

Since you have an online SS account, try this one:

https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html

You copy and paste your earnings data from the SS website and can adjust future years from there. Since you are just pasting your earnings and no other information, and the website doesn't retain any of your earnings information, there is no issue with security.

fyi, a change was made to the socialsecurity.tools page, so that one can now cut/paste any set of years and earnings from other tables or software. E.g. you can create a column of years and column for associated earnings and paste it in. The input no longer needs to come from your own SS statement.

That makes it easy to answer, "but if I HAD worked" X number of years or made Y earnings. One can't change the past, but maybe some are curious. socialsecurity.tolls still does not allow for entering your own specific set of FUTURE earnings however, if future earnings are not all identical without gaps. As far as I know, the tool at doctoredmoney.org is the only free web-based calculator. And of course anypia is great (and free) but cumbersome to play "what if" scenarios with.