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Old 10-06-2008, 12:24 PM   #21
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Do you honestly think this is the worst it can be?
Not yet. The fallout is just beginning.
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:24 PM   #22
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Its even funnier when folks like Bill Gross have been predicting this outcome for 15 years.

When something goes wrong, you can always find someone that 'predicted' it. If it was predictable or even somewhat obvious, everyone would have known it was going to happen.

So what is Gary North now saying will happen over the next two years, so we can check his precision?
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:32 PM   #23
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Its even funnier when folks like Bill Gross have been predicting this outcome for 15 years.
Elaine Garzarelli made a career out of "calling" the 1987 crash. The problem is, those who followed her after the crash didn't fare all too well based on her subsequent record.
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:35 PM   #24
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one of the people on Fast Money on CNBC said it's only fair that if you send the execs to jail you do the same to the millions of people that committed fraud in the last few years by lying on their mortgage applications+
I think we should do the same we do to the drug dealers and drug users. We sent the drug dealers (executives) and the drug users (mortgagees) to rehab.
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:40 PM   #25
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From everything I've read from Gary North, he was always said that once the **** hits the fan, no one can know what will happen. It can be anything, from Civil Unrest, government collapse, world war or just a very simple and uneventful depression. We are on uncharted territory now, as the world markets have never been this interconnected and we have never seen this many derivatives and the level of deleveraging we are seeing now. I doubt anyone can predict where we are heading to now.
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Old 10-06-2008, 01:21 PM   #26
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Another thing is that sometimes these alarmist numbers add up all the total "value" of the derivatives, but many of them are similar "bets" in opposite directions. For example, a $1 billion position of derivatives that rise if the market does one thing may have a corresponding $1 billion position that does just the opposite. The net effect for these in any market is to cancel each other out.

It's like saying someone has a $1,000 long position on SPY and a $1,000 short position on SPY and saying they have $2,000 "at risk" in the market when, for all intents and purposes, they have zero because one bet cancels the other out (minus frictional costs).

Unless one of your two parties is unable to pay due to "liquidity" issues and suddenly your perfect hedge has big problems
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Old 10-06-2008, 02:05 PM   #27
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Old 10-06-2008, 08:15 PM   #28
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I doubt anyone can predict where we are heading to now.
I'll take a stab at it. The markets will suck and wobble around for another couple of months to a year and a half, all the horsepuckey will get worked out of the system, nobody will learn their lesson as a result, we'll pay more in taxes, the markets will start going back up, housing prices will go back up, and hardly anyone around here will live materially different lives as a result of any of this.

Oh, and you'll be able to buy MRE's, gold and bullets for half price around 2 years from now.
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:05 PM   #29
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Almost 2 years ago, Gary North published this article that is of psychic like precision about the crisis we face today. Interestingly enough, the article was hammered by Brewers and Nords, who called the author a nutjob, piglet sodomizer and many other things. Funny how things turn out the way they do.

I don't see much "precision" in being "almost 2 yrs early", but it depends alot on where we go from here.
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:15 PM   #30
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Just as an FYI, with about 3 minutes of digging I found that in 1986 Gary North predicted that the US would fall apart by 1999. In 1998 he said the Y2K disaster would end civilization as we know it by january 3, 2000.

He said, and I quote "The y2k crisis is systemic. It cannot possibly be fixed. I think it will wipe out every national government in the West. Not just modify them -- destroy them. I honestly think the Federal government will go under. I think the U.S.A. will break up the way the U.S.S.R. did. Call me a dreamer. Call me an optimist. That's what I think."

Jumpin' Jesus...even broken clocks are right twice a day. This guy's been consistently wrong for over 20 years.

And I now redirect you to the "Gary North is a big fat idiot page"

Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:20 PM   #31
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Ah yes, Gary North...thanks for the refreshing link CFB. While I am not properly certified to be able to say with certainty that he is a piglet victimizer, I do however have as a layman's opinion that he is in fact a whackjob.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:34 PM   #32
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I think we should do the same we do to the drug dealers and drug users. We sent the drug dealers (executives) and the drug users (mortgagees) to rehab.
Actually, I think we send a lot of both to jail. Probably for a lot longer than any of these guys will ever go.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:49 PM   #33
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All I want to know is...

Who is Wall Street Neary and where does he live? I'm a go kick his ass now.
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Old 10-07-2008, 07:59 AM   #34
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This is pretty weak journalism.
Hey now! Don't let facts and figures get in the way of a good piece of infotainment.

The investment banks, insurance companies, and hedge funds that were involved in the CDS market weren't exactly hiding what they were doing. Where was FINRA, the SEC, and the state insurance commissioners?
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Old 10-07-2008, 08:29 AM   #35
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All I want to know is...

Who is Wall Street Neary and where does he live? I'm a go kick his ass now.
Sory for the mistaak
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Old 10-07-2008, 08:30 AM   #36
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So basically, Gary North has accurately predicted 42 of the last 3 recessions.
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Old 10-07-2008, 08:56 AM   #37
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While being a complete and total nutjob.

Lets just take one minor little point from his diatribe. He believes that being on the cusp of the end of civilization here in the US, that to effectively prepare one should purchase a mid 80's mercedes diesel.

Because thats what you really want during the period following the apocalypse: A big heavy vehicle that requires good pavement, breaks frequently and is hard to repair, with parts that are hard to come by, and which also screams "Look at me!!! I have money!!!"

It isnt so much that he's predicted 42 of the last 3 recessions as he sincerely hopes for the fall of civilization and has been predicting that continuously for decades.
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Old 10-07-2008, 09:02 AM   #38
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Everyone knows the V8 interceptor is the car of choice for post apocalypse driving.
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Old 10-07-2008, 09:30 AM   #39
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Someone could be wrong about the sky falling 100 times before a chunk of it actually does fall... and suddenly they are a genius and a market guru...
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 10-07-2008, 11:12 AM   #40
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at the barmitzva scavenger hunt, the kids had run back to the dj with a sock with a hole in it, his scam being that every sock has a "hole" in it, the "hole" you stick your foot through to put the sock on.

thing is, that's not what a hole in a sock is. just like the top of a glass where you place your lips to drink is not a hole in a glass. a hole in a glass (a cup) is an opening from where the glass would leak, contrary to its function. that is how we derive meaning. misuse of meaning when not simply used to play a joke, but to defraud, is called a scam.

i don't believe for a second that everyone didn't know what they were doing. words have meaning. context has meaning, application has meaning. to say that a swap is not insurance is ludicrous. this is called a scam. plain and simple. since when isn't scamming prosecutable.
And if you don't believe that want to make a side bet!!!!
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