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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-03-2006, 10:32 PM   #101
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Re: How's your YTD

Personal Rates of Return:

Roth IRA 1 --> 7.7%* * *(8% of assets)
Roth IRA 2 --> 8.1%* * *(8% of assets)
Roth IRA 3 --> 8.8%* * *(33% of assets)
401k* * * * * --> 10.1%***(51% of assets)

Hoping for a little more in 2006!
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 02:36 AM   #102
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Re: How's your YTD

What a difference a day makes!

Portfolio balance as of 12/30/05 (last trading day of 2005): $2,335, 954
YTD return 1/1/05 to 12/30/05: 3.9%

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006): $2,379,856
YTD return 1/1/05 to 1/3/06: 5.8%

Which goes to show, the returns calculated on any one day don't have a whole lot of meaning. Especially when over 90% of your portfolio is in equities like individual stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and REITS, which swing up and down like crazy.

As long as I don't keep going in the hole year after year, I'll be happy. But it was kind of a disappointment to go from an 8% return last year to this year's lesser return. If I hadn't rebalanced the portfolio to include more International equities over the last half year, I probably would've just broken even or maybe even had a negative return.

I hope this year will be better for me.

Gosh, I see most everyone else has had some pretty good returns in the double digits! My hat's off to you savvy investors out there.

Toejam






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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 02:42 AM   #103
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toejam
What a difference a day makes!* *

Portfolio balance as of 12/30/05 (last trading day of 2005):* $2,335, 954
YTD return 1/1/05 to 12/30/05:* 3.9%

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006):* $2,379,856
YTD return 1/1/05 to 1/3/06:* 5.8%

Which goes to show, the returns calculated on any one day don't have a whole lot of meaning.* Especially when over 90% of your portfolio is in equities like individual stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and REITS, which swing up and down like crazy.*

As long as I don't keep going in the hole year after year, I'll be happy.* But it was kind of a disappointment to go from an 8% return last year to this year's lesser return.* If I hadn't rebalanced the portfolio to include more International equities over the last half year, I probably would've just broken even or maybe even had a negative return.* *

I hope this year will be better for me.*

Gosh, I see most everyone else has had some pretty good returns in the double digits!* My hat's off to you savvy investors out there.

Toejam
Toejam, my hat is off to you for your balance. Balance dominates return, IMO.

Ha

*





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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 06:15 AM   #104
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Re: How's your YTD

[quoue]
YTD return 1/1/05 to 12/30/05: 3.9%
YTD return 1/1/05 to 1/3/06: 5.8%The first trading day of 06 was off to a good start esp for the Energy sector and international equities.

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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 07:35 AM   #105
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toejam

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006):* $2,379,856
With a balance like that you must have average daily +/- net worth fluctuations in the $15K to $25K range.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 07:44 AM   #106
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Re: How's your YTD

I think the good returns we are seeing are a result of balanced, low fee portfolios in general. Most investors here it seems have a good portion allocated to international, which did better than the market (Dow Jones or SP500). All of the "end of year" news reports I saw (financial porn) reported how it was a lackluster year in the markets. They were referring to US markets only. I know the international funds I'm in were up over 20%+ during 2005. That helps a lot when 20-50% of your portfolio is in international, in spite of almost zero returns domestically.

Also, I'd like to add that yesterday I had my largest one day gain ever - $2600. Scary to think that an equivalent down day will have a $2600 drop in one day.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 07:53 AM   #107
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toejam
Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006):* $2,379,856


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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 08:42 AM   #108
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Re: How's your YTD

Yesterday was the opposite of the first 2 trading days of 2005.
Yesterday up 1.8%
Jan 2005 down 1.8%

This is why you have have to figure YTD from the value of your investments on the evening of 12/31 or before the market opens on the first trading day.

When we have this discussion next year, everyone who uses Jan 3rd as the starting point will be 1.8% behind the rest of us.

Similarly those folks who used a January date in this thread will be a percent or so ahead of us.

I guess using 1/1 is OK since the market is always closed that day.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 08:55 AM   #109
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Re: How's your YTD

Hmmm

A few random comments:

ala Bill Fleckenstein - lead sled dog VG Lifestrategy 5.69% YTD at 75% of port. and VG REIT Index about 11 something percent at about 10% of port.

Don't count the 15% in individual stocks - they will produce their required 5 or 6k of div's.

At 12 years into ER - more concerned with asset allocation to get my Norwegian widow cut along with proper asset balance to run the slot between reasonible inflation effects and damping SD enough so I don't scare myself enough to pee my pants - 2002 dip was thus normal market fluctuation.

Way back in my accumulation days before ER - of course I tracked YTD much more closely.

BTY - the IRS now lets me live till 84.6 vs 84.3 back in 1993. I say this because at some point my er ah SWR will have some external influence - RMD being an offer I can't refuse.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 09:09 AM   #110
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Re: How's your YTD

Looks like the YTD on my 401(k) was somewhere in the 13%-14% range, which is pretty decent all in all. Taxable accounts are pretty cash-heavy, as I've sat on the sidelines for a while to see if the economy stabilizes, but they yielded roughly 8%. Now that such stablization appears to have occurred, it's probably time to tip a few more toes in the water and pick up some solid actively-managed mutual funds. I'm pretty much done with individual stocks except for my employer's stock (I seem to recall Buffett stating that one shouldn't invest in anything one doesn't understand).
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 12:01 PM   #111
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay_Gatsby
I'm pretty much done with individual stocks except for my employer's stock (I seem to recall Buffett stating that one shouldn't invest in anything one doesn't understand).
I think Peter Lynch said that.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 01:05 PM   #112
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Re: How's your YTD

They both sort of did.

Buffett said he doesnt invest in technology because he doesnt understand it.

Lynch said not to invest in anything you cant illustrate with a crayon.

Although i'm quite sure both, and most other investment experts, said not to buy anything you dont understand.

All THAT having been said, I completely understood my last company, its business, its competition and had access to pretty much every piece of inside information available. I doubt that the chairman and CEO sitting next to each other could pose me a question about the business or its environment I couldnt answer. To boot, I probably had more timely and immediate product and program information than they did.

Didnt help a whit when it came to investing in the companies stock. We announced cool new strategies, products and great quarter/year end results, and the stock went up, down and nowhere. We announced bad news, product cancellations, and major failures and the stock went up, down and nowhere. Nothing I saw or experienced would have led me to believe the stock would go up almost 1000% in a few years, or lose almost 90% of its value in less than one.

So maybe the "understanding" thing helps you avoid complete losers, but its not a key to successful investing IMO. In fact, i've often found that people who dig in and analyze a business to death often find things that make buying shares more attractive...
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 07:42 PM   #113
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Also, I'd like to add that yesterday I had my largest one day gain ever - $2600.* Scary to think that an equivalent down day will have a $2600 drop in one day.*
The last guy to comment on seeing his portfolio drop $3000 in one day ended up going back to work...

It's not uncommon for a high-equity portfolio to have daily swings in the five-figure range, especially when the DOW moves triple digits.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-04-2006, 10:23 PM   #114
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Re: How's your YTD

My YTD is 21.3%

NAtural Resources
Utilities
Real Estate
5% in bonds
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-05-2006, 05:22 PM   #115
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Re: How's your YTD

I'd like to encourage those who didn't beat the indexes to post here as well. We all know that most pros who beat the indexes in the short term trail the indexes over the long term, so it's just impossible that the readers of this board are somehow collectively that much better than all other professionals who invest for a living. So one of two things explain the results being reported here:

1. The people who report results here are taking significantly more risks and are likely to trail the indexes in the long term due to eventual downturns.

or

2. There is self selection going on where those who didn't beat the indexes aren't reporting their results.

I suspect it's mostly the latter, so lets hear your results. Reporting that you trailed the indexes can be a sign of maturity and good judgement.

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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-05-2006, 05:35 PM   #116
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by fireme
1. The people who report results here are taking significantly more risks and are likely to trail the indexes in the long term due to eventual downturns.
If by "risk" you mean "volatility", then I agree. Small-cap value had a great year as did Tweedy, Browne.* Berkshire Hathaway was a good buy on its Sep dip, too.

Which index are you predicting they'll underperform?* If you're comparing their performance to the S&P500, of which our retirement portfolio holds almost zilch, then I suspect they'll continue to outperform (although at a much higher volatility).
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-05-2006, 06:00 PM   #117
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Re: How's your YTD

Quote:
Originally Posted by fireme
1. The people who report results here are taking significantly more risks and are likely to trail the indexes in the long term due to eventual downturns.
But by taking more risk in an intelligent way, generally one should expect to outperform in the very long term.
On the other hand, I suppose if people are being reckless and making big performance-chasing bets, then I'd agree.

Quote:
2. There is self selection going on
Maybe. I've said before, I plan to post someday when I've underperformed. I wasn't on these boards in the late 90's, so didn't post then.

I think a big reason for outperformance by so many people could be diversification. The major US indexes were beat by several other asset classes that are popular on this board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
If you're comparing their performance to the S&P500, of which our retirement portfolio holds almost zilch, then I suspect they'll continue to outperform (although at a much higher volatility).
It wouldn't surprise me at all, if in 2006, S&P500 outperforms all of the following: value, small, international, commodities, energy, gold.
That said, I think that diversification is the best bet. And I'm overweight international, but not by as much as I was a month ago. (Have sold some.) Nor am I a huge S&P500 fan--if I were to pick one US fund today, it would be VTI, total market.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-05-2006, 06:03 PM   #118
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Re: How's your YTD

oh, in case Petey's here:

by "value" above, I mean "value indexes," not "intrinsic value."
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-05-2006, 07:14 PM   #119
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Re: How's your YTD

Whoa, this number is a little out of date, but I'm too lazy to do the work myself - I had a YTD return of 9.7%! I was not expecting it to be that good! My international and small cap holdings are 40% of my portfolio, they put it on their back and carried it...my Wellington just kept chugging along.
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Re: How's your YTD
Old 01-05-2006, 07:20 PM   #120
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Re: How's your YTD

HEH HEH HEH - Being left handed and all that:

The corollary question is: what was your 'worst YTD' in your experience and what did YOU do - when the you know what hit the fan.

I.E. ?Valuable experience? Lessons learned??
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