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Humor me...
Old 03-01-2012, 09:09 PM   #1
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Humor me...

I know that market timing, over the long haul, is a bit of a perilous venture, but, I've got some money to put to work and am a bit hesitant because it feels like a "correction" is around the corner. I know that no one can predict where the market is headed...but what's your gut say? Do you think that a correction is eminent? Humor me...
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:13 PM   #2
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I think the market will go up and then back down and the up again, well something like that.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:15 PM   #3
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Heads..market goes up. Tails..market goes down.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:19 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by ARB57 View Post
I know that market timing, over the long haul, is a bit of a perilous venture, but, I've got some money to put to work and am a bit hesitant because it feels like a "correction" is around the corner. I know that no one can predict where the market is headed...but what's your gut say? Do you think that a correction is eminent? Humor me...
All "Whee!" threads aside, I haven't a clue. I'd suggest either going ahead and investing it now, or else Dollar Cost Averaging it over a period of time, if that helps to alleviate your concerns.
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:08 PM   #5
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I know that market timing, over the long haul, is a bit of a perilous venture, but, I've got some money to put to work and am a bit hesitant because it feels like a "correction" is around the corner. I know that no one can predict where the market is headed...but what's your gut say? Do you think that a correction is eminent? Humor me...
Park your cash in a money market account. Somewhere during the next nine months the market will go down. When it does, even if it's just 10 points, you can sink that stash into your asset allocation and declare victory.

Then you can tell your brother-in-law and all the other posters on this board how you nailed the correction, and you just don't see why everyone fusses about this market-timing stuff.

Finally, and this is a key point, once you've invested it then you have to ignore any further market drops for the rest of the year. Once you've "claimed" that first market drop you can retire at the top of your game and don't let anybody cast doubt on your record...
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Old 03-02-2012, 12:14 AM   #6
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That's really great advice, Nords! I mean it LOL!

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Old 03-02-2012, 01:26 AM   #7
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I'm curious why you think this audience would have more accurate foresight than, well, anyone else?

I know what I was revving up to buy in 2000. Luckily I never got around to it. I'm now quite happy riding the markets at 60/40 broad-market funds. (Although I may eventually consider buying stock to weasel out of some fund fees.)

I haven't trotted out this story in a while...I used to listen to the daily market reports on local radio, and I found it fascinating they had an explanation for why the market performed the previous day but couldn't predict the next day with any reliability at all.

Good luck with your timing.
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Old 03-02-2012, 06:15 AM   #8
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The market is overvalued right now but that doesn't really mean much over the next 20 years. If the amount is modest (say, 10% or less of your entire portfolio), I'd say just invest it all. If the amount is more substantial and the thought of a short-term decline makes you nervous, then dollar cost average it over the year.
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Old 03-02-2012, 06:26 AM   #9
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I can confidently predict that there will be more up days than down days in the market.
I also don't feel that a correction is around corner. So invest tomorrow or spread it out over the next 6 months.

I can also tell you for any given day, week, month, or quarter, flipping a coin, or taking my advice will produce roughly the same result
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Old 03-02-2012, 08:01 AM   #10
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Do you think that a correction is eminent? Humor me...
No, I don't, and not imminent either. But we'll have a correction some day, no one knows when despite what some may say...
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Old 03-02-2012, 08:07 AM   #11
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I'm curious why you think this audience would have more accurate foresight than, well, anyone else?
..........
Was it Mark Twain who said a expert was someone that lives at least 50 miles away?
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Old 03-02-2012, 08:12 AM   #12
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Was it Mark Twain who said a expert was someone that lives at least 50 miles away?
And, an expert is someone who know "this much" more than you do...
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Old 03-02-2012, 12:30 PM   #13
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I would set a timeframe that you would like to invest it over and then value average it in over that timeframe.

Or invest it all now.

And in either case, never look back.
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Old 03-02-2012, 01:27 PM   #14
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Not to sidetrack, but wasn't there a thread a few years back about getting out below DOW13,000 and back in above?

Anyone recall where that thread is? I can't recall the name (I think maybe that was a sidetrack itself).

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Old 03-02-2012, 01:37 PM   #15
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My boss thinks that we will have a major crash in the US this year.... or next..

Me, I don't think so, but I missed that last big downturn a few years back and from what everybody says, they saw it coming...
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Old 03-02-2012, 01:41 PM   #16
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My boss thinks that we will have a major crash in the US this year.... or next..
Tell him you hope so - for the bottom buying opportunity ...
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Old 03-02-2012, 01:58 PM   #17
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Old 03-02-2012, 02:14 PM   #18
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Finally, and this is a key point, once you've invested it then you have to ignore any further market drops for the rest of the year. Once you've "claimed" that first market drop you can retire at the top of your game and don't let anybody cast doubt on your record...
The other key point is to ignore what the market does while your cash is earning 0.01% in a MMF. Missing another 10% equity rally isn't nearly as important as buying in on a 2% dip.
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Old 03-02-2012, 03:39 PM   #19
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Correction happens constantly, up, down, more or less. Funny enough?
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Old 03-02-2012, 05:53 PM   #20
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Humor me...
Have you considered investing in lottery tickets on a weekly basis?
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