Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Hussman Funds- Dirty Market Timer Lives
Old 07-10-2012, 04:35 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 256
Hussman Funds- Dirty Market Timer Lives

Howdy,

Iran, Greece, Spain, Exp. Bush Tax cuts, China and US recession, Interest rates too low, etc, etc...

Currently 60% Wellesley 35% Wellington, 5% cash. Not as diversified as most of you but Sleeping well at night until the past month or so.

Going to cash probably not great option.

What about Hussman Funds? He appears to be focusing on Capital preservation. All funds are hedged to a certain extent now....I understand the concerns about Inflation long term but I am more worried about a crash in the few months..

Anyone considering running to safer ground? Is this a good option? Any better ideas?

Let the little men running around because the sky is falling slide show begin..

From Hussman March 2012 market commentary.

Market Climate

As noted above, we presently view the menu of investment opportunities to be one of the most unfavorable in history. For equities, much of the bubble period since the late-1990's has been worse in terms of valuations (predictably generating near-zero total returns during this span of time), but in terms of the overall overvalued, overbought, overbullish profile of the market, present conditions fall into a Who's Who of awful times to invest. Both Strategic Growth and Strategic International remain fully hedged. Strategic Dividend Value is nearly 50% hedged. In Strategic Total Return, we clipped our duration back to about 3.5 years, and added a few percent in precious metals shares on price weakness last week, but our overall tendency is toward defensiveness here.

Full March Link. Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment - Warning: A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest

Few more Hussman links.

Hussman Funds - Our Mission and Commitment to Shareholders

Hussman Funds – Hedge Fund Letters


Thanks as always,

Wally
__________________

__________________
wallygator69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-10-2012, 04:46 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,152
Wally, someone came out with the perfect mutual fund a few years ago but we missed out - it went belly up in 2007.

Chicken Little Growth Fund Gets Cooked
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 05:04 PM   #3
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Wally, Hussman has an archive of weekly letters. Go back and look at the letters starting around 03/09, through the next 2 years. He doesn't believe in the recovery since then, even though it is reality. If you are 60% Wellesley, 35% Wellington and the rest cash you are safe as can be. Read Jeremy Grantham at GMO. IMHO he gives better advice.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 05:06 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,863
I've been gathering cash during the last market peak or two. I'd be happy to start reinvesting it if things get to new lows. Only about 88/12 instead of the usual 98/2 equities/cash&bonds, so not a big move. I did more just before I retired in 2007, about 30% cash. That worked out nicely. I'd kind of like to be about that right now, but I'm sticking with my plan and only raising cash when the portfolio value is exceeding projections.

Kind of difficult to adjust the AA with only Wellesley/Wellington. I'd just sit tight with that kind of portfolio. It shouldn't be too terrible.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 06:10 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 256
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Wally, Hussman has an archive of weekly letters. Go back and look at the letters starting around 03/09, through the next 2 years. He doesn't believe in the recovery since then, even though it is reality. If you are 60% Wellesley, 35% Wellington and the rest cash you are safe as can be. Read Jeremy Grantham at GMO. IMHO he gives better advice.
Hi Michael,

Thanks. I have been reading and following Hussman's weekly updates sporadically for the last few years and frankly don't understand how the market has had the run up it did. So even though he has been wrong I kind of agree with him and just don't see how it can keep going with all the doom and gloom out there. Yes, I realize he is going to be right someday, even if it's 10 years from now.

I feel pretty good about safety of W+W but...

Thanks again,

Take Care,

Wally
__________________
wallygator69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 08:15 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,490
Quote:
Originally Posted by wallygator69 View Post
....Yes, I realize he is going to be right someday, even if it's 10 years from now.....
And a broken (analog) clock is right twice a day...
__________________
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 08:19 AM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 398
WG

IMO with the QE programs our govt has enacted a lot of this liquidity has found its way into the stock market thus creating an artificial stimulus.

It appears that QE III is right around the corner.
__________________
2soon2tell is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 08:52 AM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 256
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
And a broken (analog) clock is right twice a day...
That is what I was implying.

w
__________________
wallygator69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 09:20 AM   #9
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Quote:
Originally Posted by wallygator69 View Post
Hi Michael,

Thanks. I have been reading and following Hussman's weekly updates sporadically for the last few years and frankly don't understand how the market has had the run up it did. So even though he has been wrong I kind of agree with him and just don't see how it can keep going with all the doom and gloom out there. Yes, I realize he is going to be right someday, even if it's 10 years from now.

I feel pretty good about safety of W+W but...

Thanks again,

Take Care,

Wally
Hi Wally.

But what?

The problem with Hussman's view is he has become so committed to it he cannot accept the possibility he may have misjudged and is denying the reality of an imperfect recovery. Even if the markets someday decline suddenly and rapidly he will not be "right", because over longer periods that is part of a normal pattern or behaviour. Like warning every day that there will be a tornado and to stay in a shelter. That does not help anyone except shelter makers.

If risk in the equity markets makes you uncomfortable it's not a bad idea to keep your investments in conservative allocation funds like Wellesley and Wellington. They will do a good job of protecting the assets for you, much better than Mr. Hussman. Instead of reading weekly Hussman, read their quarterly commentary instead and rest easier.

You take care as well ...
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 10:13 AM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 256
Hi Michael,

I agree with you. Frankly, I knew I would get your response or similar before my first post and appreciate your taking the time to make a second reply.

But was....Being retired for 6 years and only 48 years old is scary if you listen to the doom and gloomers. I am more interested in Capital Preservation than even beating inflation, at this point. I started thinking about Hussman's hedging strategy and was interested in some other opinions.

Ultimately, I'm happy where I am with W+W and will try and tune out a bunch of the noise.

Thanks Again.

Take Care,

W
__________________
wallygator69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2012, 10:27 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
teejayevans's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,228
Quote:
Originally Posted by wallygator69 View Post
Hi Michael,

Thanks. I have been reading and following Hussman's weekly updates sporadically for the last few years and frankly don't understand how the market has had the run up it did.
Apparently you haven't been reading the earnings reports, which in the end should be the only thing a company is evaluated on. Do you really think Greece default will affect most companies profits?
TJ
__________________

__________________
teejayevans is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:51 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.