I didn't say it... but great market lately!

Feb options expire today, markets closed on Monday, and now this....a new meaning for triple witching:whistle:
 
If we have another plunge like 2008 so soon, ammo and water may trump cash.
 
Nords said:
Dammit.

I can hear the lifeguards now: "*TWeeeeEET!* Everybody out of the pool!!"
Click to expand...

:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: Well, it had to happen SOMETIME.... :LOL:

And just think of the buying opportunities ahead!

I'd love for this bull market to continue for just a little while longer, though, so that I could finally qualify for Vanguard's Flagship status for once!
 
Shoot, today's a holiday, so we need to wait until tomorrow to see what kind of bloodbath will result from this thread.
 
More like the unrest in the Middle East will spook markets or give people excuse to take some profits.

Irony is the more they protest, the higher oil and gas prices spike. I read a scroll at the gym that gas prices are going up despite high supplies.

So that just probably helps boost other commodity prices, which was part of their complaint, about the increase in food prices among other things.

Doesn't mean they shouldn't protest but it's having the opposite effect from what they probably desired.
 
explanade said:
More like the unrest in the Middle East will spook markets or give people excuse to take some profits.

Irony is the more they protest, the higher oil and gas prices spike. I read a scroll at the gym that gas prices are going up despite high supplies.

So that just probably helps boost other commodity prices, which was part of their complaint, about the increase in food prices among other things.

Doesn't mean they shouldn't protest but it's having the opposite effect from what they probably desired.
Click to expand...

My oil and gas equities are looking pretty good this week. Maybe I should hedge that by buying a hybrid!
 
explanade said:
Irony is the more they protest, the higher oil and gas prices spike. I read a scroll at the gym that gas prices are going up despite high supplies.

So that just probably helps boost other commodity prices, which was part of their complaint, about the increase in food prices among other things.

Doesn't mean they shouldn't protest but it's having the opposite effect from what they probably desired.
Click to expand...
For people whose own government is prepared to fire anti-aircraft guns at them, I don't think the price of gas is probably their #1 preoccupation.
 
While I think this thread signals the start of a correction, let is step back a bit. The economic data has been trending upward and there are lots of signs that the economy is sufficiently on the mend that the next year or two should see unemployment decline. While the Middle Eastern issues are a bit troubling, I note that Saudi Arabis, Abu Dhabi, and a host of other major oil exporters do not seem to be in deep trouble (via pretty much bribing everyone with petrodollars/petroyuan). So short term fluctuations aside, its not hard to make a case that equity valuations ought to be normalizing (i.e. moving upwards) over the next couple of years.

I'd be happy to see the odious dictators of North Africa chucked out on their ears, FWIW. The fact that it seems to be happening without the US manufacturing a silly pretext for yet another endless war of occupation that gives people a good reason to hate us for generations makes it even better. The people who are going out on the streets and confronting their governments are more courageous than I am ever likely to be.
 
brewer12345 said:
While I think this thread signals the start of a correction, let is step back a bit. The economic data has been trending upward and there are lots of signs that the economy is sufficiently on the mend that the next year or two should see unemployment decline. While the Middle Eastern issues are a bit troubling, I note that Saudi Arabis, Abu Dhabi, and a host of other major oil exporters do not seem to be in deep trouble (via pretty much bribing everyone with petrodollars/petroyuan). So short term fluctuations aside, its not hard to make a case that equity valuations ought to be normalizing (i.e. moving upwards) over the next couple of years.
Click to expand...

What is troubling to me Brewer is that equity levels are within 15% of all time levels. Economic activity is certainly better than it was 2 years ago, but I dare say it looks much worse than it did back in 2007.

I also think that financial crisis caused structural damage to many institutions, mainly governments but also banks, and the housing industry that are decades away from being repaired. I think it is almost certain that austerity measures that are being enacted at all levels of government both here and in Europe, will cause a short term contraction in income. While I am very happy to see the measures cause I think they are the right thing to do, I am worried that in the short-term they will further depress demand and possibly employment.

So on an absolute basis I much happier purchasing SP @1500 back in 2007
because I think the outlook for 5 year corporate earning from 2007-2012 looks much better than 2011-2016. (Obviously with perfect hindsight, I'd understand that SP500 earning were really a house of cards back then.).

On the other hand on a relative basis with bonds/CD earning 2-3%, cash earning nothing, real estate on life support, stocks look cheap. But I wonder if it is not an illusion. :(
 
clifp said:
What is troubling to me Brewer is that equity levels are within 15% of all time levels.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately no one wants to pay for covered calls that are 16% out of the money...
 
I rebalanced on Friday since my equity proportion had gotten higher than I like. Also, it does seem like time for a correction. On the other hand maybe things are different this time :)
 
No need to worry as I'm going all cash in the morning so the market is guaranteed to continue going up for many months yet.
 
BTravlin said:
No need to worry as I'm going all cash in the morning so the market is guaranteed to continue going up for many months yet.
Click to expand...
Are you doing this, or is this a joke? If you are serious, can you tell us more about your thought processes?

Ha
 
Can you believe it W2R - I am still 100% in bonds, CDs, and money market equivalent. Last year I should have tried to buy some shares for the first time in my life. However, there has been too much going on at work, and I did not have much time to focus on this unfortunately.

W2R said:
This market is taking my breath away and still seems to be headed up, up, up.
Click to expand...
 
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