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Old 02-26-2011, 11:09 AM   #101
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I believe that Paul B is corrrect in his analysis, and that his heuristics and valuation sense are sound, but that the last 15 years have pretty much proved that it is very hard to turn even accurate insights like his into improved market success.

Passive investors who are heavily invested at these levels will get whacked, I don't know when, but real valuations will return to levels significantly below today's.

Active value investors may of may not do any better, unless they are just staying pretty much away from the fray.

Ha
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Old 02-26-2011, 04:16 PM   #102
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I believe that Paul B is corrrect in his analysis, and that his heuristics and valuation sense are sound, but that the last 15 years have pretty much proved that it is very hard to turn even accurate insights like his into improved market success.

Passive investors who are heavily invested at these levels will get whacked, I don't know when, but real valuations will return to levels significantly below today's.

Active value investors may of may not do any better, unless they are just staying pretty much away from the fray.

Ha
I actually place more stock in your opinion that Farrell's who has struck me as perma-bear. Although I haven't followed him closely.

What do you find about his analysis that is compelling?

I am finding myself increasingly nervous about valuations and the situation in the middle east and the middle west isn't helping. On the other hand, with other asset class looking worse I am sticking to stocks, but looking for an excuse to sell.
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Old 02-26-2011, 04:52 PM   #103
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Keep up the good work W2R.
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Old 02-26-2011, 05:20 PM   #104
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I am finding myself increasingly nervous about valuations and the situation in the middle east and the middle west isn't helping. On the other hand, with other asset class looking worse I am sticking to stocks, but looking for an excuse to sell.
I don't generally dart in and out of stocks, but yeah, I think a significant portion of the post-crash rally off the early 2009 lows was due to undervaluation at the trough, but also because every other option also stunk.

I think the main "stimulus" wasn't government intervention, but cheap oil prices. That train has left the station, leaving another cause for concern.
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Old 03-01-2011, 03:11 PM   #105
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Ow, that hurt today.
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Old 03-01-2011, 03:19 PM   #106
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I'm glad I updated my financial spreadsheet at the close of 2/28/11's day of bidnezz......
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Old 03-01-2011, 04:36 PM   #107
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Ow, that hurt today.
A relatively minor blip in the whole scheme of things. Watching Libya and oil closely. Otherwise, not seeing any disturbing trends from my vantage point.
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Old 03-01-2011, 04:39 PM   #108
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Meh, people overreacting to what will probably prove to be a short lived oil spike. We are overdue for a correction, if you pray at that particular altar. Meanwhile the economic data released so far this week was extremely strong (esp the manufacturing indicators).

Other than an apreciated options position I hastily liquidated, I see no ovious signs that would make me change anything in my portfolio.
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Old 03-01-2011, 06:34 PM   #109
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For a guy who has 70+% in equities, I sure hope this is just a short-term correction.

Meanwhile, it is gratifying to see that my equity portion is down a "mere" -1.1% today, which is not shabby considering that the Dow is down -1.4%, Nasdaq -1.6%, and S&P also -1.6%.
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Old 03-01-2011, 07:22 PM   #110
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My portfolio was actually up today. I must have too much money in bonds and commodities.
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Old 03-01-2011, 07:27 PM   #111
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Down 1.2 % today. I had some sell orders in before the market opened and they were executed at a satisfactory price at the open. Saved a few bucks.
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Old 03-01-2011, 07:58 PM   #112
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Down 2/10 of a percent.
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Old 03-03-2011, 10:19 AM   #113
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Bulls running out of the gate today.
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Old 03-03-2011, 10:27 AM   #114
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Bulls running out of the gate today.
A few years ago, I "sort-of-dated" (neither of us was sure what it was) a woman who ended up revealing to me that she had been diagnosed bipolar. That explained a lot.

Anyway, I thought this was somewhat relevant to the topic of checking the market on a daily basis during times like this
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Old 03-03-2011, 01:00 PM   #115
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Yeah I thought FIRE'd folks were invested in indexed funds who didn't track the gyrations of the market.
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irrational exuberance
Old 03-03-2011, 01:02 PM   #116
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irrational exuberance

The market today is undergoing some irrational exuberance.

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Old 03-03-2011, 01:45 PM   #117
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Yeah I thought FIRE'd folks were invested in indexed funds who didn't track the gyrations of the market.
I'm an indexer. Usually I don't track the gyrations of the market. But on days of big drops, I say to myself, "glad I'm an indexer" then I hold on tighter. On days of big gains, I say to myself, "glad I'm an indexer, remember to not get greedy."
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Old 03-03-2011, 03:21 PM   #118
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Don't look now, but...

Market Report - Mar. 3, 2011 - CNNMoney.com
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Old 03-03-2011, 04:09 PM   #119
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Love this roller coaster!

So do market timers who want to make a little money..
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Old 03-03-2011, 04:34 PM   #120
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The market today is undergoing some irrational exuberance.

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