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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:19 PM   #21
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorklady
really, i am serious. wouldn't a good manager be able to beat an index fund? wouldn't a manager be able to spot problems with individual stocks, etc?
I work for an asset manager with a very, very good track record. It is not easy to spot problems before they happen. The world can change quickly (as the market slump that started suddenly a week ago illustrates), and it is not always that easy to figure out what is going on within a company based on public information. Then if we are talking about a mutual fund, there are a lot of constraints that keep you from doing what you might otherwise choose to do. If you actually do beat your benchmark, you usually get flooded with money. We had close to $100MM in new cash show up on our doorstep at the beginning of this year. Imagine trying to find a place to put that. Now make it $1 billion or $10 billion.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:19 PM   #22
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorklady
really, i am serious. wouldn't a good manager be able to beat an index fund? wouldn't a manager be able to spot problems with individual stocks, etc?
I see others type faster than me. Oh well, here is my 2 cents -

Seriously - no. Or at least not often enough and regularly enough to overcome the costs.

Because, that manager would need to spot problems that the rest of the market is overlooking. How do you really do that, other than with inside (illegal) info? Sure, you might be able to see that a certain industry or a certain company is headed for bad times, but guess what? The market sees it too, and the stock price has already tanked.

Conversely, if a company is situated to do well, the market sees that, and has already bought up the stock and it is no longer a 'bargain'. A fund manager can interview and research, but do they really get any info that tells them a company is doing something other than what everyone else thinks? Maybe once in a blue moon.

Heck, even the insiders in a company rarely have an idea where the stock is going. They get blind-sided all the time - an unpredicted shift in demand, a sudden rise in costs, a new product from a competitor.

But, I'm all ears. If anyone on this forum has some data to show there is a method for picking mutual funds based on past performance that will act as a predictor of superior future performance, I sure would like to see it.

AFAIK, no Nobel laureates or other Economics PhD's have discovered it either.

-ERD50

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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:29 PM   #23
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

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Originally Posted by Spanky
There will always be people who think they can be the other 20%.
Which would be fine if it were the *same* 20% over time. But they keep rotating out - today's winner may well be tomorrow's loser.

Heck, if it were easy, everyone would do it (which would then dilute the advantage!). Or at least, someone would be selling an expensive seminar telling you how to do it....

-ERD50

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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:33 PM   #24
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
Which would be fine if it were the *same* 20% over time. But they keep rotating out - today's winner may well be tomorrow's loser.

Heck, if it were easy, everyone would do it (which would then dilute the advantage!). Or at least, someone would be selling an expensive seminar telling you how to do it....

-ERD50
Time for the Weiner heads to show up :

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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:42 PM   #25
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

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Originally Posted by lswswein
Time for the Weiner heads to show up :

-h
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:46 PM   #26
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Yawn - happens every generation.

Active managers beat indexing all the time before expenses and if they are allowed to select the time period. The latest poop if ala Clint E.'s Dirty Harry - 'Do ya feel lucky punk?---'

Goggle up Bogle Financial Markets Research Center - under speeches go to the May15 2006 and go to the last half - no math, simple arithmatic - I'll leave it to a bookie to calculate the odds.

Davis New York Venture, Fidelity Contrafund, Franklin Mutual shares - in the 35 yr rear view mirror. The view forward - heh heh heh - 'do ya feel lucky?'

I let my Nephew use my financial advisor Charles De Gaul (low cost) who put him in VFINX 1994 to present - and if you look at the chart you may agree with him - if he never invests another nickel - his retirement is in the bag.

Yep - VFINX - you heard me right. BTY - dead financial managers work the cheapest.

heh heh heh heh heh heh - let's try one more time - are indexers skins or shirts? : 8)

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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:50 PM   #27
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
If you actually do beat your benchmark, you usually get flooded with money. We had close to $100MM in new cash show up on our doorstep at the beginning of this year. Imagine trying to find a place to put that. Now make it $1 billion or $10 billion.
That's a nice problem to have - more inflow of cash, more profits or income. It's hard to turn down $$$ or close the fund even though that's right thing to do.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:51 PM   #28
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by AirJordan on Today at 05:58:45 PM
I just bought VFINX today ... And then I sold it
... must be a wizard ... though i could be mistaken, any trade in VFINX takes place at the market close, so would he not have purchased and sold at exactly the same price?

if he's "in fact smart than the indexers" wouldn't you think he'd know this? ... and have better grammar.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 08:52 PM   #29
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
We had close to $100MM in new cash show up on our doorstep at the beginning of this year. Imagine trying to find a place to put that. Now make it $1 billion or $10 billion.
Just ask AirJ! He'll know what to do with it
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 09:12 PM   #30
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick2
I let my Nephew use my financial advisor Charles De Gaul (low cost) who put him in VFINX 1994 to present - and if you look at the chart you may agree with him - if he never invests another nickel - his retirement is in the bag.

heh heh heh heh heh heh - let's try one more time - are indexers skins or shirts? : 8)
We're skins...we've lost our shirts in the market ;-).

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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-05-2007, 09:17 PM   #31
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
Just ask AirJ! He'll know what to do with it
Let's me guess - may be he wants to have his own law firm so that he can be a partner.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 08:07 AM   #32
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
Just ask AirJ! He'll know what to do with it
You guys are so helpless. Give me 1 billion dollars. That's worth like 10 BRKA shares, and voila, there I'll call it the AirJordan fund, all I do is leech off of Buffet's success.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 10:38 AM   #33
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

i will read the four pillars of investing. this is actually an enlightening debate, if you can call it that. for me at least.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 10:44 AM   #34
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

You guys should seriously have a throw down with the people at Motley Fool, Fund Alarm, and M-Star, they all swear by actively managed funds, but hey 1 out of 4 ain't bad
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 10:47 AM   #35
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

people here aren't looking to have "throw downs" with anyone. chill out airjordan.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 10:55 AM   #36
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 11:14 AM   #37
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

P.S. read through each of those testimonials, and even if your not probability-challenged, you'll probably have a fleeting thought of "Hey, maybe there's something to this."

No wonder people believe that managers can actively beat the market in the long run.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 11:26 AM   #38
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by AirJordan
You guys should seriously have a throw down with the people at Motley Fool, Fund Alarm, and M-Star, they all swear by actively managed funds, but hey 1 out of 4 ain't bad
AJ, all you need to do is to present some real data, not anecdotal, (though I do like T-Al's references!) to back up your claim.

Bring us something that can be discussed. Everything else is just a childish 'is-to.... is-not....' 'throw down'.

Bring us some data - we are listening. Show us you are even 1/10 as smart as you first claimed.

-ERD50
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 01:43 PM   #39
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

I have a theoretical question about indexing that has been bothering me for a while. Forgive me for using AirHead's troll thread to ask it.

Let's suppose that the entire world, bar none, decides that indexing is best, and everyone "buys the market" for all their investment needs, and never trades on market data, nor even watches the market data, etc., but only trades per their own (e.g. retirement) needs. Is it not possible that volatility in the markets would then be (1) smoothed substantially and (2) driven substantially by macro-economic forces (e.g. baby boomer's retirements, etc.) that are unrelated to market fundamentals? If this is true, what are the other ramifications? What percentage of all holdings are in broad index funds?

Thanks.
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Re: I just bought VFINX today
Old 03-06-2007, 01:50 PM   #40
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Re: I just bought VFINX today

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50

AFAIK, no Nobel laureates or other Economics PhD's have discovered it either.

-ERD50

Ummm... look at the DFA staff, I'm pretty sure they've "discovered" it
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