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Old 12-06-2014, 12:30 PM   #141
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I didn't think it was particularly bold or stupid or reckless.

There is obviously a misperception by some that dividends are "new money" that magically appear out of nowhere when this is not so. It is more than apparent that is the case with the OP and a few have made attempts to explain it. I tried to restate what has been stated already in more simple terms because some appear to have completely misinterpreted/disregarded/didn't read those explanations.

I fail to see how any of my "babbling" was pointless. But maybe I'm wrong.
Some may mis-perceive the dividend thing. But most of us get it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras
The math doesn't tell the whole story.
I think you may be confusing attempts to tell other parts of the story with not agreeing with the math. Read Zathras' post. It is note-worthy.
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Old 12-06-2014, 01:00 PM   #142
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The math doesn't tell the whole story.

Mathjak is absolutely correct on the mechanism and math behind dividend distributions.

However, that makes zero difference to why I like dividends.

Companies with a solid record of dividend growth tend to be very good long term investments.

During recessions, I have no concerns about selling stocks at a loss, and the dividends tend to hold up far, far better than the stock prices. This is just one case, but for me, in the last recession, my portfolio lost about 40% of its value, my income stream from dividends was down 3% for one year and then recovered.

The psychological benifit of having less volatility is very valuable to some.

The fact that my dividend income stream grows by 7-8% a year is also very helpful.
So in good years, I contirbute more to charities, reinvest some, or a bit of both. In the worst of years, I hold pat. No need to sell anything with the exception of now as we plan to build a new house.

The math is important for everyone to understand, but the math is not the whole story.
actually yes , the math is the whole story when it comes to your total return.

once again though whether you sell stocks at a loss to generate that dividend or the company sells off a piece of your share price and hands it to you with the same loss there is no difference.

a growing dividend just means bigger reset in value when it is paid out . all in all this is also an area where there is zero difference.


a stock paying a dividend out in a downturn not only has a market action loss but it also has the loss from the reset in price from the dividend adding to the down trend.

a stock in a downturn has the starting bar lowered each quarter out of the gate producing a lower and lower share price based on what was paid out each time.

where ever the markets leave it for the quarter it takes an extra hit by the payout amount .

sorry once again that makes little mathamatical sense.


a stock starts out the quarter at a certain value , from the open, market action takes it up or down a percentage. at the end of the quarter that dividend is payed and the price lowered by the same amount.

the bar is lowered and the next quarter kicks off and does its thing.

whether that action is up or down for the quarter given the same total return selling off a piece of on your own of a non dividend payer leaves you exactly even steven.

the not selling shares at a loss vs the dividend payout being better is false logic.


by selling on your own and not having a share price adjustment you need to sell less and less of a share to equal that dividend over time .


there is no way around the fact same total returns always equal the same results whether all capital appreciation or a mix of dividends and appreciation and it does not matter if markets are up or down.
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Old 12-06-2014, 01:15 PM   #143
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Are there any other parties that benefit from the reinvestment of dividends? I'm thinking of the cost of printing checks and mailing them to individual investors.
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Old 12-06-2014, 01:19 PM   #144
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all the dividend really does is save you the job and possible commission on selling a piece off on your own.. gains and losses are the same and taxes will be the same.
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Old 12-06-2014, 02:14 PM   #145
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I'm really talking about the stock's transer agent. They print out and mail the checks post distribution. Seems like they promoted dividend reinvestment. Perhaps it was to lower their costs of servicing the shareowner account? Some of this has changed since their are more brokerage accounts. They just have a house account at the transfer agent and divvy up distribution to their customers.

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Old 12-06-2014, 02:21 PM   #146
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Any benefit to the transfer agent since everything is so automated would be a nit in the whole scheme of things. Also, in some cases, they might get reimbursement for certain direct costs that could vary a lot, like postage.
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Old 12-06-2014, 03:03 PM   #147
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Some may mis-perceive the dividend thing. But most of us get it.

I think you may be confusing attempts to tell other parts of the story with not agreeing with the math. Read Zathras' post. It is note-worthy.
I read Zathras' post, and indeed responded to it.

It is correct that some prefer dividend paying stocks for other reasons. Some people might think management is not investing profits in new ventures that are likely to generate a worthwhile return and thus they prefer the company send profits directly to them instead. Some people do not trust "the market" to value managements wise investment choices correctly. That's all personal choice.

Warren Buffet has been mentioned. Surely people realize he doesn't just screen for companies with a history of increasing dividends and throw money at them. IMO that is hardly a reason for preferring dividend paying stocks "because Warren does it"

None of us here are Warren Buffet.
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Old 12-06-2014, 03:11 PM   #148
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one of the problems is i see on alot of forums is folks looking in the mirror and waiting for the next big drop and seeing themselves as warren buffet snatching up stocks.

as i said earlier one of the biggest reasons folks lose money is they try to buy low and sell high.

we all thought low was when the dow fell 2000 points.

well low was actually 4000 points lower. that attempt led to tripped stop losses and investors panicking ,bailing out and licking their wounds.

many swore off investing forever.

trying to be buffet can be one dangerous vision.

know what mantra has made more money than any other?

buy high and sell higher.

the trend is your friend and an object in motion stays in motion until it hits something.

odds are you will make money and while you may not catch the peak most will not lose money bailing out if they were inclined to sell out..

to sell at a loss you would have to be that unlucky guy at the end of the line who just bought when the trend ended.

of course the above would only apply to those dirty lil market timers, certainly not the folks here. lol
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Old 12-06-2014, 03:19 PM   #149
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You could go and teach Warren Buffet one or two things Since he for most will buy only dividend growers.
I don't think that Buffett looks for business which pay dividends. I think he looks for companies that have an established moat and are therefore easy for him to value. The classic example is Coke, large numbers of people will continue to drink Coke products into the foreseeable future. It is a very profitable business and the company has only limited need for capital (modest R&D, building new bottling plants). The excess cash is return to shareholders in the form of dividends or stock buybacks. These established companies tend to have growing dividends. Given Berkshire's size its pretty much impossible for him to make meaningful investment in companies that aren't big established companies
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Old 12-06-2014, 03:26 PM   #150
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correct. it just so happens the largest companies today that fit his size requirement and are large enough to be worth it to berkshire to buy pay dividends.

it is a size thing more than the fact they pay dividends or not.
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Old 12-06-2014, 04:17 PM   #151
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Buffet bough KO in late 1980s loooong before his company became huge as it is today.

It is this type of investing that made him rich.

The rest of the reasoning of Clifp is something that I agree with. Yes those high quality companies do tend to pay raising dividend.
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Old 12-06-2014, 04:36 PM   #152
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The math doesn't tell the whole story.

Mathjak is absolutely correct on the mechanism and math behind dividend distributions.

However, that makes zero difference to why I like dividends.

Companies with a solid record of dividend growth tend to be very good long term investments.

During recessions, I have no concerns about selling stocks at a loss, and the dividends tend to hold up far, far better than the stock prices. This is just one case, but for me, in the last recession, my portfolio lost about 40% of its value, my income stream from dividends was down 3% for one year and then recovered.

The psychological benifit of having less volatility is very valuable to some.

The fact that my dividend income stream grows by 7-8% a year is also very helpful.
So in good years, I contirbute more to charities, reinvest some, or a bit of both. In the worst of years, I hold pat. No need to sell anything with the exception of now as we plan to build a new house.

The math is important for everyone to understand, but the math is not the whole story.
I completely agree, MATH isn't everything.

Arguably the biggest question on early retirement is how much can I safely withdraw from my portfolio. It certainly was my biggest question for the first few years I retired (99/2000). The market tanking and being in my early 40s, FIRECalc runs for 30 years weren't entirely comforting nor appropriate.

I wasn't also thrilled with the idea of taking a fixed percentage (4 or 5%) from my portfolio, while its true you can't go broke with this approach the variability of spending was too great.

So I settled on keeping my spending to below my dividends plus interest. The volatility of dividends paying stock is lower than non dividend paying stocks,and even more important dividend income is much less volatile my total income dropped by 6% (but that was also due to declining interest rates in 2009).

Now it is certainly true now days that relying on solely dividends&interest is going to result in lower SWR mine is 2.7% last I checked, down from 3.6% in 2009. But just like Zatharas and most retirees I cut back in 2008 and 2009. I didn't change my daily spending very much, but the big ticket items I deferred. The last couple of years have seen crazy spending, on my part, a Tesla lots of home improvement stuff, increased charitable giving. I'm able to justify it because of capital gains from my non dividend stocks (mostly Berkshire).
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Old 12-06-2014, 04:47 PM   #153
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Zathras and clifp you both are talking my language.

I would not mind withdrawing 2 .7 % instead of 3.6 from portfolio that grew 200 or 250 percent
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:04 PM   #154
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But what the fairly predictible price runup in stocks leading up to the Ex dividend date that was noted 30 years ago? Someone asked about the math, and there's the math in an academic study from 1984 that noted prices tend to run up in anticipation of the Ex dividend date.

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr173.pdf Page 4.

I would hardly say it is a non-event in reality, when you are actually trading and making/losing money as opposed to an academic exercise. What tends to happen in reality is that there is an ex-dividend price runup, usually the amount of the dividend, at which point you have your 100k investment worth 110k and then it comes back down to 100k after the dividend paid for a 10% example.

If it were truely a non-event, dividend capture funds would have performed much better than they have in the past, which is to say they have performed very poorly.



Looking at a very, very short timeframe, say the closing price the day before ex div and the opening price the day after, yes, the dividend is subtracted, but that is kinda missing the point if the stock rallied 2% leading up to the 2% dividend, and just happens to do so every quarter.



Sure, total return 10% in dividends is the same as 10% in capital gains, but in reality,

Mr. Market isn't always so agreeable and you rarely have a situation where stocks reliably go up 10% each and every year with capital gains,

but you do have stocks that have reliably paid dividends each and every year or month. That's a huge IF to say that your total returns would be the same if they pay a dividend vs retained earnings.

It seems that you are suggesting that if the company just kept the funds as retained earnings, the market is going to neatly value the retained earnings at the proper multiple to grant a 10% capital gain at the end of the year where you could just sell for the same gain at a lower tax rate. In reality, it just isn't so.

In reality, the market does all sorts of bonkers stuff and may wind up valuing the stock at a 10% loss despite improving revenue and earnings. Mr. Market may value the earnings at a 10x multiple or a 20x multiple or a 5x multiple. I have no idea and neither do you.

I'm not talking about end of the year pay out with actively managed funds, but stocks, CEF's, and ETF's which actively trade.

No mention in this discussion has been made about dividend capture strategies, dividend stripping, dividend spread arb, and the impact it has on stock prices around dividend dates.

Professional investors have created funds to trade off the phenomenon of dividend capture and the dividend price runup, so it is very real and very predictable.

I just happen to know about the dividend runup from investing in high dividend paying stocks for many years.

There is study:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rotating-between-dividend-payers-sounds-simple-but-is-tough-to-execute/article625355/

after study:

http://www.efmaefm.org/0EFMAMEETINGS/EFMA%20ANNUAL%20MEETINGS/2014-Rome/papers/EFMA2014_0113_fullpaper.pdf

After study that cover the pre-ex dividend runup:

http://faculty.bus.olemiss.edu/rvanness/Working%20Papers/ShortDividend.pdf

The relation between trading behavior and dividend payments is not a new area of re search (Kalay, 1982, Miller and Scholes, 1982, Lakonishok and Vermaelen, 1986, and Koski and Scruggs, 1998

Amen to that.

Empirical results (Michaely and Vila, 1995, 1996, and Koski and Scruggs, 1998) find an increase in trading volume a fter the dividend announcement and before t he ex - dividend date suggesting that some t raders engag e i n dividend capture strategies. Lakonishok and Vermaelen ( 1986 ) show positive abnormal returns prior to the ex - dividend day and negative abnormal returns after, suggesting that increased (decreased) demand for dividend - paying stocks by divid end capture traders drives prices up prior to (after) the ex - dividend day. Lakonishok and Vermaelen show that ex - dividend return patterns are driven by stocks with larger dividend yields, which are likely stocks that generate the most demand by dividend ca pture traders. Koski and Scruggs (1998) find abnormal trading activity prior to the ex - dividend date


Dividend spread arb, another strategy designed to capitalize on the phenomonon:

http://thismatter.com/money/options/dividend-spread-arbitrage.htm

more studies on the price runup before the ex date:

http://www.stockopedia.com/content/dividend-stripping-is-it-worth-playing-the-ex-div-calendar-67048/

It happens in australia:

http://www.macquarie.com.au/mgl/au/personal/investments/specialist/dividend-run-up-fund
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:19 PM   #155
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But what the fairly predictible price runup in stocks leading up to the Ex dividend date that was noted 30 years ago? Someone asked about the math, and there's the math in an academic study from 1984 that noted prices tend to run up in anticipation of the Ex dividend date.

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr173.pdf Page 4.

I would hardly say it is a non-event in reality, when you are actually trading and making/losing money as opposed to an academic exercise. What tends to happen in reality is that there is an ex-dividend price runup, usually the amount of the dividend, at which point you have your 100k investment worth 110k and then it comes back down to 100k after the dividend paid for a 10% example.

If it were truely a non-event, dividend capture funds would have performed much better than they have in the past, which is to say they have performed very poorly.



Looking at a very short timeframe, say the closing and opening price of a stock going ex div, yes, the dividend is subtracted, but that is kinda missing the point if the stock rallied 2% leading up to the dividend, and just happens to do so every quarter.



Sure, total return 10% in dividends is the same as 10% in capital gains, but in reality,

Mr. Market isn't always so agreeable and you rarely have a situation where stocks reliably go up 10% each and every year with capital gains,

but you do have stocks that have reliably paid dividends each and every year or month. That's a huge IF to say that your total returns would be the same if they pay a dividend vs retained earnings.

It seems that you are suggesting that if the company just kept the funds as retained earnings, the market is going to neatly value the retained earnings at the proper multiple to grant a 10% capital gain at the end of the year where you could just sell for the same gain at a lower tax rate. In reality, it just isn't so.

In reality, the market does all sorts of bonkers stuff and may wind up valuing the stock at a 10% loss despite improving revenue and earnings. Mr. Market may value the earnings at a 10x multiple or a 20x multiple or a 5x multiple. I have no idea and neither do you.

I'm not talking about end of the year pay out with actively managed funds, but stocks, CEF's, and ETF's which actively trade.

No mention in this discussion has been made about dividend capture strategies, dividend stripping, dividend spread arb, and the impact it has on stock prices around dividend dates.

Professional investors have created funds to trade off the phenomenon of dividend capture and the dividend price runup, so it is very real and very predictable.

I just happen to know about the dividend runup from investing in high dividend paying stocks for many years.

There is study:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rotating-between-dividend-payers-sounds-simple-but-is-tough-to-execute/article625355/

after study:

http://www.efmaefm.org/0EFMAMEETINGS/EFMA%20ANNUAL%20MEETINGS/2014-Rome/papers/EFMA2014_0113_fullpaper.pdf

After study that cover the pre-ex dividend runup:

http://faculty.bus.olemiss.edu/rvanness/Working%20Papers/ShortDividend.pdf

The relation between trading behavior and dividend payments is not a new area of re search (Kalay, 1982, Miller and Scholes, 1982, Lakonishok and Vermaelen, 1986, and Koski and Scruggs, 1998

Amen to that.

Empirical results (Michaely and Vila, 1995, 1996, and Koski and Scruggs, 1998) find an increase in trading volume a fter the dividend announcement and before t he ex - dividend date suggesting that some t raders engag e i n dividend capture strategies. Lakonishok and Vermaelen ( 1986 ) show positive abnormal returns prior to the ex - dividend day and negative abnormal returns after, suggesting that increased (decreased) demand for dividend - paying stocks by divid end capture traders drives prices up prior to (after) the ex - dividend day. Lakonishok and Vermaelen show that ex - dividend return patterns are driven by stocks with larger dividend yields, which are likely stocks that generate the most demand by dividend ca pture traders. Koski and Scruggs (1998) find abnormal trading activity prior to the ex - dividend date


Dividend spread arb, another strategy designed to capitalize on the phenomonon:

http://thismatter.com/money/options/dividend-spread-arbitrage.htm

more studies on the price runup before the ex date:

http://www.stockopedia.com/content/dividend-stripping-is-it-worth-playing-the-ex-div-calendar-67048/

It happens in australia:

http://www.macquarie.com.au/mgl/au/personal/investments/specialist/dividend-run-up-fund
not exactly the same thing .

when talking about the same exact stock paying a dividend or not and trying to guess whether the stock would advance or fall the same amount in either case is impossible to predict.

but what is very predictable is stocks with the same total return will perform the same whether one pays a dividend and one does not.
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:22 PM   #156
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when talking about the same exact stock paying a dividend or not and trying to guess whether the stock would advance or fall the same amount in either case is impossible to predict.

but what is very predictable is stocks with the same total return will perform the same whether one pays a dividend and one does not.
Mathaj,

Can you please give us an example of company that grows and grows for last 50 years but does not pay/grow dividend?

Skip brk which owns growers
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:36 PM   #157
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Lets say 20k of your income were qualified dividends.

Try computing taxes while having those 20k as Bond yield instead of qualified dividends. I would be extremely surprised if you end up with identical tax bill.

Yea it is better That is why Mitt Romney pays less then 14% taxes on tens of millions of annual income.
WRONG, Mitt benefits from the special "carried interest" tax loophole that treats earned income by folks like him as if it were long term capital gains. Even though that is all he gets every 2 weeks as a paycheck.

I just love it when the tiny people with less than 5MM think they are like the big folks with 115MM in the KIDS 529 plan, and G-d only knows how much in the parents stash.

Yes, life is not fair, and sometimes I feel that is not right.
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:46 PM   #158
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This thread deserves nomination in the Strangest of the Strange Competition.

In fact, I nominate it.

Ha
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:50 PM   #159
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when talking about the same exact stock paying a dividend or not and trying to guess whether the stock would advance or fall the same amount in either case is impossible to predict.

But that's what you have to do if you are going to say capital gains, which are anything but predictable, are superior to dividends which in many cases are fairly predictable. Predicting total return? That is pretty much impossible, particularly given the uncertainty of capital gains.

but what is very predictable is stocks with the same total return will perform the same whether one pays a dividend and one does not.

Right, and 4 quarters equals a dollar. Nothing profound there. The problem is that neither you nor I nor anyone else can predict or any sort of accuracy what your end of year total return will be for any given stock any more than we can predict the exchange rate between the dollar and Euro a year in advance.

I think you can generally have some idea of what a stock portfolio will yield, although some stocks will eliminate their dividends ala SDRL, there are companies like O that pride themselves on paying regular and increasing dividends that are more likely than not likely to be paid.
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Old 12-06-2014, 05:53 PM   #160
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This thread deserves nomination in the Strangest of the Strange Competition.

In fact, I nominate it.

Ha
I second the nomination.

(And I agree with Ha? How in the world did that happen?)
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