I think I'm going to say it ..... One More Year :(

[daylatedollarshort]

I did look at it and I'm fairly average once I adjust for a couple of very large differences (HI is 4k in the CES survey -- I WISH !), I don't have a mortgage, and I can't find vacations.

I think the data is useful for things like home maintenance costs and perhaps things like furniture and appliance replacements. ie: the things that I have called "future one time expenses". Totally agree that I may not be average but the CES data will at least give me a place to determine if I'm in the right ballpark.

We found it helpful to look for areas of opportunity to cut where our spending was out of line with other households. The first thing that jumped out for me was hair costs. I cut out the trendy salon in the high rent area and found a great stylist at a strip mall. Total remaining lifetime savings: 24K. Find 10, 20 or more of those expenses to cut and it really lowers the total nest egg requirements. Even cutting a $10 a month expense comes out to almost 5K lower nest egg requirements with a 40 year time frame.

 

[obgyn65]

Personal finance and medicine are the only two areas where I am conservative. Very liberal in about everything else.

LOL thanks ObGyn ! thats why we love the ultraconservative that you are

 

[rodi]

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/retirement/nearing/when-can-i-retire


It runs 5000 simulations, uses your AA, but assumes static spending. Good enough for a ballpark and comparison

It's a ballpark - but I wouldn't try to get 100% out of a ballpark.
That's one of the reasons I like firecalc and Quicken Lifetime planner. You can input changes in your budget over time. firecalc lets you bring other cash sources online, or spending changes - with the pension/offset spending stuff. Quicken lets you modify for pretty much any life event.

For our case - changes in healthcare premiums as my husband hits medicare age, then I hit it, and as the kids get launched. We also look at funding 529's up till a certain point -then freeing up that chunk of money from our budget.... Vanguard doesn't allow for any of that.
And for a 40 year horizon, it seems to want a super low withdrawal rate - 2.2% for my case... (60/30/10) to get 100% success. That's lower than most other calculators.

I would NOT keep working just to tease out 100% from the vanguard calculator.

 

[Live And Learn]

I would NOT keep working just to tease out 100% from the vanguard calculator.

Personally I'm not going to try for 100% in ANY calculator. I'm willing to take "some" risk. I just can't find the balance. Right now I get anywhere from 81% to 100% depending upon the assumptions of (a) reducing my noncash portfolio by 10% for a potential "market decline" and (b) assuming that I will have to pay full freight Obamacare HI premiums instead of getting a 15k subsidy if I can keep MAGI below 60, which requires spending 30k per year in non taxable funds (of which I have 1.1mm !).

I feel "good" about 92% success ... weird number but thats where I feel "ok" most of the time. Of course when push comes to shove, I'll probably want to up that to 98% LOL

 

[REWahoo]

I'm willing to take "some" risk.

You may believe these words but my view of your posting history says just the opposite. You seem to build in a cushion on top of a pad above an extra margin of safety in every category you mention.

Nothing wrong with being conservative but you need to be honest with yourself when it comes to risk. I think your sig line is a very honest self-assessment.

 

[Live And Learn]

You may believe these words but my view of your posting history says just the opposite. You seem to build in a cushion on top of a pad above an extra margin of safety in every category you mention.

Nothing wrong with being conservative but you need to be honest with yourself when it comes to risk. I think your sig line is a very honest self-assessment.

Yes, you are absolutely correct. I am very risk adverse. What I should have said is that "I'm willing to take some risk *according to the calculators* because I know I've built padding, cushions and diapers into my scenarios"

 

[T-bird]

Yes, you are absolutely correct. I am very risk adverse. What I should have said is that "I'm willing to take some risk *according to the calculators* because I know I've built padding, cushions and diapers into my scenarios"

That Depends?

 

[Huston55]

It's a ballpark - but I wouldn't try to get 100% out of a ballpark.
That's one of the reasons I like firecalc and Quicken Lifetime planner. You can input changes in your budget over time. firecalc lets you bring other cash sources online, or spending changes - with the pension/offset spending stuff. Quicken lets you modify for pretty much any life event.

For our case - changes in healthcare premiums as my husband hits medicare age, then I hit it, and as the kids get launched. We also look at funding 529's up till a certain point -then freeing up that chunk of money from our budget.... Vanguard doesn't allow for any of that.
And for a 40 year horizon, it seems to want a super low withdrawal rate - 2.2% for my case... (60/30/10) to get 100% success. That's lower than most other calculators.

I would NOT keep working just to tease out 100% from the vanguard calculator.

FIDO's RIP tool allows for this as well, with more spending adjustment flexibility than FIREcalc.

 

[Live And Learn]

I love the FIDO tool. I use FIREcalc and Vanguard as "sanity checks". FIDO seems to be the more conservative tool also.

 

[Live And Learn]

My entire 'sucess rate' depends upon HI. Even with my assumed 10% market drop if I continue to get HI through DH's job, or f I can get Obamacare subsidy then I am good to go. So I am going to wait until October / November to make the call. Hopefully I DON'T have to say "OMY" but if I do I'll survive.

 

[Huston55]

I love the FIDO tool. I use FIREcalc and Vanguard as "sanity checks". FIDO seems to be the more conservative tool also.

Me too, and I use it obsessively on endless "what if" scenarios...higher expenses, lower expenses, LTC, annuity, earlier SS, later SS, higher confidence, etc, etc.

 

[Live And Learn]

Happy Update !!!!



I spoke to the bosses last week and suggested that they need to think about moving my position to headquarters (1800 miles away). I made the case that having me down here in Florida worked only because of ME as an individual (I've been working remote for 10 years although I do commute an hour each way to a satellite office). I suggested that they are screwed if I left and that they would probably replace my position in NY at that point. They agreed. I then told them that I was FI and that retirement was on the near horizon. They asked about my timeframe and I said "yesterday would work" but that I wanted to give them time to find my replacement up north. I also made the point that this was in effect a position relocation that would come with severance. They agreed. They are now trying to talk me into staying OMY and I've been saying no.

Severance would allow me to use 85% of my portfolio in my retirement calculations (which currently use 90% of my portfolio). My "ideal" is to use 80% but I have enough other contingencies in my plan that I'm ok taking that bit of risk.

Now I just have to hope they actually go through with the severance deal. Fingers crossed. I think they know I can go at any time so I'm hoping they realize that if they want a smooth transition its worth the cost of severance.

I sort of feel like I'm blackmailing them but OTOH I've been there nearly 30 years so if I divide the severance dollars by 30 its peanuts per year.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Good luck, L&L. Glad to hear you made a decision you feel good about.

 

[heeyy_joe]

They value your work? Find out. Tell them you are resigning unless you get a "stay bonus"

 

[Live And Learn]

They value your work? Find out. Tell them you are resigning unless you get a "stay bonus"

I think we are both considering the severance to be my stay bonus (for 5 more months on the job). They've asked me to stay an additional 7 months beyond that and have dangled another annual bonus in front me but I'm seriously not interested. I'm way too tired and burned out. The difference between 5 months months and 12 more months feels like a lifetime.

 

[palomalou]

Live, this makes me angry on your behalf, as for many years I've watched colleagues really screw up, be released from their jobs, and end up in better places. Sometimes it seems there is a penalty for being highly productive.

 

[Katsmeow]

I get to 97% on all three if I (a) remove my 200k contingency for a 10% market drop and (b) keep my MAGI below 60k and get HI premium subsidies. I guess the real question is .... are those two changes "reasonable".

Aren't you in effect double dipping if you keep in a contingency for a 10% market drop. That is, for most calculators don't they in fact include scenarios where there was a large market drop. I mean some of the periods that FireCalc includes were very grim and would have had a 10% or larger market drop. So, isn't the possibility of 10% market drop already included in running the calculators?

 

[gotRdone]

I don't think you can be diagnosed to have OMY syndrome unless you reset your target more than once. My goal was to be done at 50 but at 49 my daughter was diagnosed with a chronic illness. I stayed on until we got clear on her long term prognosis and health care needs. The good news was that after 1.5 yrs it became probable that her health care was going to be manageable and about the same time mega corp announced an early retirement offer. The way I looked at it, part of my reward for being a faithful father was a six figure send off that was not available at age 50.

Point is life happens, adjustments need to be made....just don't make it a habbit

 

[Live And Learn]

Had a conf call with the boss today (yep, on Sunday !). He asked how my weekend was. I worked 20 hrs ! I said "don't ask - all I can say is five more months" !

I'm so ready to get to the next chapter. I have found so much peace in the past week. I still get upset about the stupid things I see at work, but afterward I grin ear to ear.

Katsmeow - yes, my original scenarios included alot of double dipping for bad things happening. I still have some contingencies in my plan but now I run my scenarios with and without that 10% market drop contingency so that I can see 'worst case'. I have to admit, worst case doesn't look that bad !!! I won't be able to do any extensive traveling (but I've never really gotten the travel bug to begin with), and I won't be able to buy first generation new technology (not that I ever have ! I still don't have a flat screen TV !), but I'll be able to spend my time how I wish.

I envision days of playing golf (haven't had time to in over 10 years !!!), volunteering (SPCA or Hospice are my first choices), making my home neat and clean (haven't had time to do that in 10 years either LOL), going to the local parks and beaches, and cooking yummy meals. Sounds pretty much like paradise.

Now I just need the severance !!!!

 

[WestLake]

Getting my home neat and clean again is also one of my ER goals. I have rental properties (besides a full time regular j*b and taking care of my almost 84-year old mother) and stuff just seems to pile up - years of stuff! Do I take a vacation 'to rest' or one to clean up my house? Or give it one more year until I retire and can do a thorough cleaning?